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Avalanche at Flyers
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Philadelphia Flyers

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸3
Philadelphia Flyers
2
FinalTV NHLN, ALT·Xfinity Mobile Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Philadelphia Flyers 3-2. The Flyers scored first; the Avalanche answered. The Avalanche led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Valeri Nichushkin's goal at 1:47 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 63% to 79%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.4, PHI 2.2; shots on goal were COL 28, PHI 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 23 of 25 (.920); Samuel Ersson stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Valeri Nichushkin (1 G), 2. Emil Andrae (1 A), 3. Travis Konecny (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    V. Nichushkin1 G
  2. ★★
    PHI
    E. Andrae1 A
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    T. Konecny1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL21211303328
PHIPHI1319013225

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    S. Couturier(5)
    N. Juulsen (3), O. Tippett (10)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    2:09
  2. COL
    B. Burns(4)
    M. Necas (25), J. Drury (6)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-1
    8:28
  3. COL
    B. Nelson(10)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (25), C. Makar (26)
    wristxG 0.30win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-1
    19:08

2nd period

  1. COL
    V. Nichushkin(7)
    V. Olofsson (12), D. Toews (9)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-1
    1:47
  2. PHI
    T. Konecny(7)
    E. Andrae (6), C. Dvorak (11)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-2
    5:58

Penalties

COL 2 PIM·PHI 4 PIM

1st

  • 17:25PHINoah Juulsen · Trippingdrawn by Parker Kelly2 min

2nd

  • 13:45PHITrevor Zegras · Slashingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min
  • 19:52COLMartin Necas · Slashingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min

3rd

  • 4:54COLNathan MacKinnon · Ps holding on breakawaydrawn by Trevor Zegras0 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PHI goalCOL goalFinal: PHI 0%

Biggest swing: Valeri Nichushkin, 2nd 1:47 — COL 63% → 79%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Zegras · On goal · xG 0.23C. Dvorak · On goal · xG 0.22T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.19T. Zegras · On goal · xG 0.15T. Konecny · Goal · xG 0.14G. Hathaway · Missed · xG 0.12C. Dvorak · On goal · xG 0.12C. Dvorak · Missed · xG 0.11C. Dvorak · Missed · xG 0.08N. Cates · On goal · xG 0.08T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.08T. Zegras · Missed · xG 0.07S. Couturier · Goal · xG 0.07E. Andrae · Missed · xG 0.06C. Dvorak · Missed · xG 0.05T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.05N. Cates · On goal · xG 0.04T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.03N. Juulsen · On goal · xG 0.03T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.03O. Tippett · On goal · xG 0.03N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.02B. Brink · On goal · xG 0.02S. Couturier · Missed · xG 0.02J. Drysdale · On goal · xG 0.02T. Konecny · Missed · xG 0.02M. Michkov · Missed · xG 0.02T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.02N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.02E. Zamula · Missed · xG 0.02T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.02T. Zegras · Missed · xG 0.01T. Zegras · Missed · xG 0.01T. Konecny · On goal · xG 0.01R. Abols · On goal · xG 0.01N. Seeler · On goal · xG 0.00E. Andrae · Missed · xG 0.00T. Sanheim · On goal · xG 0.00C. Dvorak · On goal · xG 0.00
PHI2 G · 2.2 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsPHI
2.43 G
All situations
2 G2.2
1.62 G
Even strength
2 G2.0
0.81 G
Power play
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL55%45%PHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.37 – 2.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsPHI
28
Shots on goal
25
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/2
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
4
18
Hits
21
18
Blocked shots
20
16
Giveaways
16
5
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. MakarD011+110.16030—25:51
29N. MacKinnonC011060.361106922:53
88M. NecasC011+120.38002021:36
7D. ToewsD011+130.17100—20:53
62A. LehkonenL000020.23100—20:08
84B. BurnsD101030.14000—19:28
11B. NelsonC101-110.303303319:18
92G. LandeskogL000-120.1102010018:32
70S. MalinskiD000-110.06200—16:44
42J. MansonD000030.09430—16:43
49S. GirardD000-100.03110—16:43
20R. ColtonC000-100.07010015:41
13V. NichushkinR101+120.08200—15:22
18J. DruryC011+110.030105615:04
95V. OlofssonL011010.23010—10:21
17P. KellyC000000.00100010:18
94J. KivirantaL000000.00110—07:40
93Z. BardakovC000000.001102504:45
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39M. Blackwood(W)25232.9202.23+0.2360:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).