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Predators at Hurricanes
NHL

Nashville Predators at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
3
Carolina Hurricanes
▸6
FinalTV FDSNSO·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Nashville Predators 6-3. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikolaj Ehlers's goal at 9:55 of the first period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 70% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 4.5 to 2.1; shots on goal were NSH 22, CAR 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 32 of 38 (.842), 1.6 goals below expected; Brandon Bussi stopped 19 of 22 (.864), 0.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jackson Blake (2 G, 1 A), 2. Nikolaj Ehlers (1 G, 2 A), 3. Brandon Bussi (19 saves, .864).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    J. Blake2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    N. Ehlers1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    B. Bussi19 saves, .864

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH0407311322
CARCAR31911427640

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    T. Hall(6)PPG
    J. Blake (10), L. Stankoven (7)
    deflectedxG 0.56win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:01
  2. CAR
    N. Ehlers(6)PPG
    S. Jarvis (8), S. Gostisbehere (17)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-2
    9:55
  3. CAR
    W. Carrier(2)
    J. Martinook (7), J. Staal (3)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-3
    19:44

2nd period

  1. CAR
    J. Blake(7)
    N. Ehlers (12), K. Miller (10)
    backhandxG 0.13win prob +3 ptsVideo
    0-4
    15:46

3rd period

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(9)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.15Video
    0-5
    4:45
  2. NSH
    M. Bunting(7)PPG
    L. Evangelista (15), E. Haula (12)
    snapxG 0.08Video
    1-5
    6:26
  3. CAR
    J. Blake(8)
    N. Ehlers (13)
    wristxG 0.12Video
    1-6
    8:12
  4. NSH
    M. Wood(8)
    F. Forsberg (9), B. Skjei (7)
    between-legsxG 0.15Video
    2-6
    9:09
  5. NSH
    F. Forsberg(10)
    N. Blankenburg (8), S. Stastney (8)
    tip-inxG 0.18Video
    3-6
    11:36

Penalties

NSH 14 PIM·CAR 8 PIM

1st

  • 6:19NSHFilip Forsberg · Slashingdrawn by Shayne Gostisbehere2 min
  • 8:12NSHReid Schaefer · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Alexander Nikishin2 min
  • 9:45NSHNicolas Hague · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 14:38CARJoel Nystrom · Holdingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 17:14NSHFedor Svechkov · Holdingdrawn by Shayne Gostisbehere2 min

2nd

  • 0:58NSHRoman Josi · Hookingdrawn by William Carrier2 min
  • 2:05CARserved by J. Blake · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 14:24NSHNicolas Hague · Interferencedrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min
  • 14:24CARAndrei Svechnikov · Holding the stickdrawn by Nicolas Hague2 min
  • 19:02NSHFilip Forsberg · Trippingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

3rd

  • 5:12CARJackson Blake · Interferencedrawn by Adam Wilsby2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalNSH goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Nikolaj Ehlers, 1st 9:55 — CAR 70% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Hall · Goal · xG 0.56J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.43T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.21S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.20W. Carrier · Goal · xG 0.19J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.19S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.19N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.16E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.15S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.15N. Ehlers · Goal · xG 0.14J. Blake · Goal · xG 0.13L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.12J. Blake · Goal · xG 0.12J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.12N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.12L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.11J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.10S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.08N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.08J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.07N. Ehlers · Missed · xG 0.07S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.07J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.07S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.06S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.06N. Ehlers · On goal · xG 0.05S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.05T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.04L. Stankoven · On goal · xG 0.04A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.04J. Martinook · On goal · xG 0.04T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.03S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.03S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.02S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.02L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.02S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.02J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.02S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.02K. Miller · Missed · xG 0.01T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.01S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.01K. Miller · On goal · xG 0.01J. Nystrom · On goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.01S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.01S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.01A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.00W. Carrier · On goal · xG 0.00A. Nikishin · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR6 G · 4.5 xG · 52 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsCAR
2.13 G
All situations
6 G4.5
1.72 G
Even strength
4 G2.2
0.11 G
Power play
2 G2.0
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH17%83%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.04 – 4.28

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsCAR
22
Shots on goal
40
58%
Faceoffs
42%
1/3
Power play
2/6
14
Penalty minutes
8
19
Hits
12
14
Blocked shots
9
18
Giveaways
17
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
76B. SkjeiD011010.05230—24:00
41N. HagueD000-300.01114—22:20
59R. JosiD000-310.05022—22:16
83A. WilsbyD000+100.06210—19:46
77L. EvangelistaR011010.11000—17:48
90R. O'ReillyC000-130.161006317:05
37N. BlankenburgD011+110.09000—16:56
56E. HaulaL011000.150004716:03
91S. StamkosC000-210.171107116:02
40F. SvechkovC000+130.233026714:54
24S. StastneyD011020.10010—14:51
58M. BuntingL101010.08010—14:35
9F. ForsbergL112030.4020410013:51
71M. WoodR101+120.20110—12:54
81J. MarchessaultR000-120.02110—12:31
17T. JostC000-110.1910010012:21
47M. McCarronC000-100.002205311:47
49R. SchaeferL000-100.00202—06:35
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(L)38326.8424.40-1.6048:12
29J. Annunen2201.0000.10+0.1011:48

Season series

CAR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).