Lightning at Rangers 4-1 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Tampa Bay Lightning

▸4

New York Rangers

FinalTV NHLN, The Spot·Madison Square Garden

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the New York Rangers 4-1. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Hagel's goal at 8:57 of the second period, which took the Lightning's chances from 65% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 6.1 to 1.8; shots on goal were TBL 35, NYR 13. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Jonas Johansson stopped 12 of 13 (.923), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Igor Shesterkin stopped 31 of 34 (.912), 0.7 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Brandon Hagel (2 G), 2. Nikita Kucherov (3 A), 3. Igor Shesterkin (31 saves, .912).

Three stars

★
B. Hagel2 G
★★
N. Kucherov3 A
★★★
I. Shesterkin31 saves, .912

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TBL	111	116	28	435
NYR	02	17	04	113

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

B. Hagel(14)
D. Raddysh (11), N. Kucherov (19)
wristxG 0.04win prob +13 ptsVideo
1-0
10:53

2nd period

B. Hagel(15)
N. Kucherov (20), D. Raddysh (12)
wristxG 0.06win prob +18 ptsVideo
2-0
8:57
J. Miller(7)
A. Fox (23), M. Zibanejad (10)
deflectedxG 0.29win prob +17 ptsVideo
2-1
17:31

3rd period

N. Paul(2)
N. Kucherov (21), C. D'Astous (6)
tip-inxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
3-1
2:02
J. Guentzel(14)EN
Y. Gourde (5), D. Raddysh (13)
wristxG 0.92Video
4-1
19:42

Penalties

4 PIM·

4 PIM

1st

15:48Charle-Edouard D'Astous · Slashingdrawn by Artemi Panarin2 min

2nd

4:16Matthew Robertson · Holdingdrawn by Dominic James2 min
19:41Igor Shesterkin · Interferencedrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min

3rd

11:56Gage Goncalves · Holding the stickdrawn by Taylor Raddysh2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NYR

Biggest swing: Brandon Hagel, 2nd 8:57 — TBL 65% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

1 G · 1.8 xG · 30 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 6.1 xG · 55 att NYR

1 G · 1.8 xG · 30 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

6.13 G
All situations: 1 G1.8; 3.23 G
Even strength: 1 G1.1; 0.50 G
Power play: 0 G0.6; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

78%22%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.51 – 1.79

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

35
Shots on goal: 13; 35%
Faceoffs: 65%; 0/2
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 4; 16
Hits: 24; 20
Blocked shots: 15; 19
Giveaways: 13; 3
Takeaways: 3

Box score

every player line

Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
43D. RaddyshD	0	3	3	+3	5	0.20	0	2	0	—	25:22
90J. MoserD	0	0	0	+3	3	0.18	1	0	0	—	23:44
78E. LillebergD	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	1	2	0	—	22:17
86N. KucherovR	0	3	3	+3	3	0.74	1	1	0	—	21:40
51C. D'AstousD	0	1	1	0	1	0.05	1	4	2	—	20:44
71A. CirelliC	0	0	0	+2	3	0.44	1	1	0	23	19:05
38B. HagelL	2	0	2	+3	5	1.32	2	2	0	—	18:59
37Y. GourdeC	0	1	1	+1	0	0.00	0	0	0	25	18:21
28Z. GirgensonsC	0	0	0	0	4	0.54	4	1	0	33	17:51
59J. GuentzelC	1	0	1	+1	4	1.41	0	0	0	50	17:51
29P. HolmbergR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.59	0	1	0	—	16:03
20N. PaulL	1	0	1	0	3	0.22	1	2	0	45	14:11
22O. BjorkstrandR	0	0	0	0	3	0.33	1	2	0	—	13:25
67D. CarlileD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	13:05
16S. SantiniD	0	0	0	0	0	0.03	0	1	0	—	10:41
17D. JamesC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	75	09:20
93G. GoncalvesC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	0	2	0	08:15
42C. DouglasC	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	2	0	0	100	05:06

Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31J. Johansson(W)	13	12	1	.923	1.80	+0.80	60:00

Season series

NYR leads 2-1

Nov 127@3Final
Nov 294@1this game
Apr 154@2Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Rangers

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score