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Maple Leafs at Capitals
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Washington Capitals

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
2
Washington Capitals
▸4
FinalTV MNMT, TVAS·Capital One Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Washington Capitals beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 4-2. The Capitals came back from two goals down. The Maple Leafs led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jakob Chychrun's goal at 16:04 of the third period, which took the Capitals' chances from 52% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Capitals, 3.8 to 3.0; shots on goal were TOR 22, WSH 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Joseph Woll stopped 30 of 33 (.909); Logan Thompson stopped 20 of 22 (.909), 1.0 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jakob Chychrun (1 G), 2. Logan Thompson (20 saves, .909), 3. Connor McMichael (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    WSH
    J. Chychrun1 G
  2. ★★
    WSH
    L. Thompson20 saves, .909
  3. ★★★
    WSH
    C. McMichael1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR1515012222
WSHWSH010113311434

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Rielly(4)
    O. Ekman-Larsson (15), N. Roy (4)
    snapxG 0.01win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:07

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(6)
    A. Matthews (6), T. Stecher (1)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +19 ptsVideo
    2-0
    2:49
  2. WSH
    C. McMichael(4)
    A. Protas (9), T. Wilson (13)
    backhandxG 0.30win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    13:18

3rd period

  1. WSH
    A. Beauvillier(5)
    A. Ovechkin (12), D. Strome (16)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +37 ptsVideo
    2-2
    13:16
  2. WSH
    J. Chychrun(10)
    R. Leonard (7), C. McMichael (10)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +40 ptsVideo
    2-3
    16:04
  3. WSH
    T. Wilson(13)EN
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.51win prob +2 ptsVideo
    2-4
    19:58

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·WSH 0 PIM

2nd

  • 0:41TORMorgan Rielly · Slashingdrawn by Dylan Strome2 min
  • 4:31TORAuston Matthews · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Leonard2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
WSH goalTOR goalFinal: WSH 100%

Biggest swing: Jakob Chychrun, 3rd 16:04 — WSH 52% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Wilson · Goal · xG 0.51A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.38C. McMichael · Goal · xG 0.30A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.20A. Beauvillier · Goal · xG 0.19R. Leonard · On goal · xG 0.17J. Chychrun · Goal · xG 0.13A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.12A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.11A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.11A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.10C. McMichael · On goal · xG 0.10A. Protas · On goal · xG 0.09J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.09D. Strome · Missed · xG 0.08C. McMichael · On goal · xG 0.08A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.07T. Wilson · Missed · xG 0.07A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.07J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.06C. McMichael · On goal · xG 0.06J. Sourdif · Missed · xG 0.06A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.06C. McMichael · Missed · xG 0.05A. Protas · Missed · xG 0.05T. Wilson · On goal · xG 0.05R. Leonard · On goal · xG 0.04J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.03C. McMichael · Missed · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.03R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.03A. Ovechkin · Missed · xG 0.03C. McMichael · On goal · xG 0.02A. Protas · On goal · xG 0.02J. Sourdif · Missed · xG 0.02J. Sourdif · Missed · xG 0.02E. Frank · On goal · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Beauvillier · On goal · xG 0.02J. Carlson · Missed · xG 0.02R. Sandin · On goal · xG 0.02C. McMichael · Missed · xG 0.02A. Ovechkin · On goal · xG 0.01A. Protas · On goal · xG 0.01A. Protas · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.01C. McMichael · Missed · xG 0.01A. Protas · Missed · xG 0.01J. Carlson · On goal · xG 0.00T. van Riemsdyk · On goal · xG 0.00
WSH4 G · 3.8 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsWSH
3.02 G
All situations
3 G3.8
2.82 G
Even strength
3 G2.6
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR51%49%WSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.97 – 2.91

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsWSH
22
Shots on goal
34
59%
Faceoffs
41%
0/0
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
0
28
Hits
17
14
Blocked shots
12
17
Giveaways
22
4
Takeaways
0

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
22J. McCabeD000-110.09230—22:46
44M. RiellyD101020.05022—22:44
95O. Ekman-LarssonD011-100.00100—22:16
2S. BenoitD000000.02500—21:31
55N. RoyC011010.481006919:20
34A. MatthewsC011-130.300225618:21
23M. KniesL101-130.47410—17:40
53E. CowanR000-320.39110—16:46
28T. StecherD011-110.02100—16:01
91J. TavaresC000-330.581004315:37
89N. RobertsonL000000.0611010014:33
63M. MaccelliL000000.00110—13:49
74B. McMannC000-130.11200013:35
81D. JoshuaC000+100.10510013:19
24S. LaughtonC000020.332006412:45
36D. MermisD000000.03020—12:41
18S. LorentzC000010.00100012:39
19C. JarnkrokC000000.00000011:14
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
60J. Woll(L)33303.9092.93-0.0758:23

Season series

WSH leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).