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Blues at Maple Leafs
NHL

St. Louis Blues at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
St. Louis Blues
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
Final/OTTV FDSNMW, TVAS·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the St. Louis Blues 3-2 in overtime, William Nylander scoring at 4:06. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Nylander's goal at 4:06 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Blues, 2.6 to 1.6; shots on goal were STL 29, TOR 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blues win a replay of these chances 69% of the time. Jordan Binnington stopped 26 of 29 (.897), 1.4 goals below expected; Joseph Woll stopped 28 of 29 (.966), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. William Nylander (1 G), 2. Joseph Woll (28 saves, .966), 3. John Tavares (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    W. Nylander1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    J. Woll28 saves, .966
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
STLSTL1411201300229
TORTOR1101110711329

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    N. Walker(3)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.22win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:50
  2. TOR
    J. McCabe(3)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.02win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-1
    5:36

2nd period

  1. TOR
    S. Lorentz(2)
    S. Blais (2), O. Ekman-Larsson (12)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-2
    9:32
  2. STL
    D. Dvorsky(3)PPG
    R. Thomas (10), C. Fowler (9)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-2
    13:18

Overtime

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(9)
    M. Rielly (13), J. Tavares (14)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +49 ptsVideo
    2-3
    4:06

Penalties

STL 6 PIM·TOR 6 PIM

1st

  • 3:25STLPavel Buchnevich · Holdingdrawn by Troy Stecher2 min
  • 16:37STLTyler Tucker · High sticking double minordrawn by Max Domi4 min

2nd

  • 12:06TORJake McCabe · Trippingdrawn by Nathan Walker2 min
  • 15:25TORJake McCabe · Trippingdrawn by Jordan Kyrou2 min

3rd

  • 3:10TORMatias Maccelli · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalSTL goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: William Nylander, OT 4:06 — TOR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.14E. Cowan · Missed · xG 0.13W. Nylander · Goal · xG 0.11B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.09S. Lorentz · Goal · xG 0.08T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.08J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.07J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.06M. Domi · Missed · xG 0.06J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.06J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.06E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.05J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.04E. Cowan · On goal · xG 0.04O. Ekman-Larsson · Missed · xG 0.04W. Nylander · Missed · xG 0.04B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.04M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.03W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.03B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.02J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.02J. McCabe · Goal · xG 0.02C. Jarnkrok · On goal · xG 0.02D. Mermis · Missed · xG 0.02M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.02N. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.01S. Benoit · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · Missed · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.01O. Ekman-Larsson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Rielly · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cowan · Missed · xG 0.01B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 1.6 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

STLvsTOR
2.62 G
All situations
3 G1.6
1.61 G
Even strength
3 G1.3
1.01 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 89 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
STL69%31%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.62 – 1.64

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

STLvsTOR
29
Shots on goal
29
53%
Faceoffs
47%
1/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
18
Hits
21
12
Blocked shots
16
10
Giveaways
19
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
St. Louis Blues skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6P. BrobergD000-100.00010—26:14
55C. ParaykoD000020.04110—24:53
72J. FaulkD000020.03030—21:57
17C. FowlerD011010.02020—21:46
18R. ThomasC011010.220106421:37
21J. SnuggerudR000050.43000—17:40
81D. HollowayL000-130.18100—17:25
89P. BuchnevichL000-300.00102—17:19
22P. SuterC000010.111105616:48
10B. SchennC000-120.151005016:36
25J. KyrouR000-160.55110—16:13
54D. DvorskyR101-230.402104013:56
70O. SundqvistC000+120.072004313:28
26N. WalkerL101+100.24400—12:37
51M. KesselD000-110.05000—12:23
75T. TuckerD000-100.00004—12:15
71M. JosephR000000.09210—11:52
13A. ToropchenkoR000+100.05200—11:19
St. Louis Blues goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
50J. Binnington(O)29263.8971.65-1.3564:06

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).