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Sabres at Mammoth
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Utah Mammoth

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
2
Utah Mammoth
▸5
FinalTV Utah16, MSG-B·Delta Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2. The Mammoth came back from two goals down. The Sabres led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Lawson Crouse's goal at 3:22 of the third period, which took the Mammoth's chances from 52% to 78%. Expected goals favored the Mammoth, 4.1 to 2.2; shots on goal were BUF 19, UTA 37. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Mammoth win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Colten Ellis stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 0.9 goals below expected; Karel Vejmelka stopped 17 of 19 (.895). Three stars: 1. JJ Peterka (1 G, 1 A), 2. Lawson Crouse (1 G), 3. Nick DeSimone (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    UTA
    J. Peterka1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    UTA
    L. Crouse1 G
  3. ★★★
    UTA
    N. DeSimone1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF181803219
UTAUTA012111414537

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    I. Rosen(2)
    J. Quinn (5), B. Byram (5)
    deflectedxG 0.17win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    5:33

2nd period

  1. BUF
    I. Rosen(3)
    N. Ostlund (2)
    slapxG 0.17win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-0
    6:42
  2. UTA
    N. DeSimone(1)
    M. Carcone (3), N. Schmidt (4)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    10:42

3rd period

  1. UTA
    J. Peterka(5)
    J. Marino (7), M. Sergachev (10)
    snapxG 0.11win prob +24 ptsVideo
    2-2
    0:52
  2. UTA
    L. Crouse(4)
    J. Peterka (7), J. McBain (2)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +25 ptsVideo
    2-3
    3:22
  3. UTA
    N. Schmaltz(10)
    C. Keller (10)
    snapxG 0.14win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-4
    10:09
  4. UTA
    C. Keller(7)EN
    N. Schmaltz (11), L. Cooley (6)
    snapxG 0.56Video
    2-5
    19:33

Penalties

BUF 24 PIM·UTA 14 PIM

1st

  • 9:05BUFPeyton Krebs · Trippingdrawn by Dylan Guenther2 min
  • 15:26UTALawson Crouse · Roughingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min
  • 17:19UTAKevin Stenlund · High stickingdrawn by Isak Rosen2 min

3rd

  • 19:37BUFJosh Dunne · Cross checkingdrawn by Barrett Hayton2 min
  • 19:37BUFJosh Dunne · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:37UTABarrett Hayton · Misconduct10 min
  • 19:37BUFPeyton Krebs · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
UTA goalBUF goalFinal: UTA 100%

Biggest swing: Lawson Crouse, 3rd 3:22 — UTA 52% → 78%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Keller · Goal · xG 0.56C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.50D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.25L. Crouse · On goal · xG 0.22L. Cooley · On goal · xG 0.17L. Cooley · On goal · xG 0.16L. Cooley · On goal · xG 0.14N. Schmaltz · Goal · xG 0.14L. Crouse · Missed · xG 0.14L. Cooley · On goal · xG 0.13L. Cooley · Missed · xG 0.13J. Peterka · Goal · xG 0.11L. Crouse · Missed · xG 0.10D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.09C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.09L. Crouse · Goal · xG 0.09N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.08K. Stenlund · On goal · xG 0.08D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.08B. Hayton · On goal · xG 0.07L. Cooley · On goal · xG 0.07J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.06C. Keller · Missed · xG 0.06N. DeSimone · Missed · xG 0.06J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.06D. Guenther · Missed · xG 0.05M. Carcone · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.04N. DeSimone · Goal · xG 0.04D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.04L. Crouse · Missed · xG 0.04N. Schmidt · Missed · xG 0.03D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.03I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.02D. Simashev · On goal · xG 0.02N. DeSimone · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02N. DeSimone · On goal · xG 0.02D. Guenther · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.01D. Guenther · Missed · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01N. DeSimone · On goal · xG 0.01J. Marino · Missed · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · Missed · xG 0.01M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.01J. Marino · On goal · xG 0.01J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.00D. Simashev · Missed · xG 0.00M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.00
UTA5 G · 4.1 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsUTA
2.22 G
All situations
4 G4.1
1.92 G
Even strength
4 G2.7
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF34%66%UTA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.09 – 2.97

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsUTA
19
Shots on goal
37
41%
Faceoffs
59%
0/2
Power play
0/2
24
Penalty minutes
14
20
Hits
16
13
Blocked shots
9
20
Giveaways
11
3
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4B. ByramD011+120.08120—24:33
25O. PowerD000-210.10110—22:10
23M. SamuelssonD000000.01010—22:03
72T. ThompsonC000-100.061005019:46
21C. TimminsD000000.03120—19:31
89A. TuchR000-100.01110—18:57
22J. QuinnR011+120.34100—18:35
86N. OstlundC011+120.22010016:59
91J. DoanR000-230.29320—16:18
63I. RosenR202+220.34000—15:56
48T. KozakC000-100.002006815:36
12J. GreenwayL000-120.1200010015:31
19P. KrebsC000-200.0071121415:22
71R. McLeodC000-200.000003715:19
8M. KesselringD000-220.23000—13:34
78J. BrysonD000-200.00000—12:07
29B. MalenstynL000-200.00110—09:11
44J. DunneC000-330.371112008:19
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
92C. Ellis(L)36324.8893.06-0.9457:50

Season series

UTA leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).