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Mammoth at Sabres
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
▸2
Buffalo Sabres
1
Final/OTTV Utah16, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Buffalo Sabres 2-1 in overtime, Clayton Keller scoring at 0:47. The Mammoth scored first and never trailed. It was tied 0-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Clayton Keller's goal at 0:47 of overtime, which took the Mammoth's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Mammoth, 3.8 to 2.1; shots on goal were UTA 35, BUF 18. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Mammoth win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Karel Vejmelka stopped 17 of 18 (.944), 1.1 goals saved above expected; Alex Lyon stopped 33 of 35 (.943), 1.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Alex Lyon (33 saves, .943), 2. Noah Ostlund (1 G), 3. Clayton Keller (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    A. Lyon33 saves, .943
  2. ★★
    BUF
    N. Ostlund1 G
  3. ★★★
    UTA
    C. Keller1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
UTAUTA0701511211235
BUFBUF09051301118

Scoring

3 goals

3rd period

  1. UTA
    N. Schmaltz(8)
    C. Keller (9), J. Marino (5)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +27 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:58
  2. BUF
    N. Ostlund(1)
    I. Rosen (1)
    snapxG 0.42win prob +29 ptsVideo
    1-1
    7:50

Overtime

  1. UTA
    C. Keller(5)
    M. Sergachev (8), K. Vejmelka (1)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +51 ptsVideo
    2-1
    0:47

Penalties

UTA 4 PIM·BUF 4 PIM

1st

  • 12:45UTABrandon Tanev · Cross checkingdrawn by Bowen Byram2 min
  • 17:44UTAMichael Carcone · Trippingdrawn by Owen Power2 min

2nd

  • 5:49BUFBowen Byram · Cross checkingdrawn by Logan Cooley2 min
  • 15:09BUFJosh Doan · Hookingdrawn by John Marino2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalUTA goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Clayton Keller, OT 0:47 — UTA 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Ostlund · Goal · xG 0.42A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.22T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.18J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.15A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.12J. Dunne · Missed · xG 0.11A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.10R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.10B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.10J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.10A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.10R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.07M. Kesselring · On goal · xG 0.06B. Malenstyn · Missed · xG 0.05M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.02M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.01J. Doan · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01M. Kesselring · On goal · xG 0.01C. Timmins · Missed · xG 0.01P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.00B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.00M. Geertsen · On goal · xG 0.00R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF1 G · 2.1 xG · 27 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

UTAvsBUF
3.82 G
All situations
1 G2.1
2.82 G
Even strength
1 G1.9
0.90 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
UTA78%22%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.78 – 2.04

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

UTAvsBUF
35
Shots on goal
18
60%
Faceoffs
40%
0/2
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
15
Hits
20
9
Blocked shots
21
15
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
98M. SergachevD011010.01120—24:53
6J. MarinoD011+120.10100—21:09
8N. SchmaltzC101+130.250002920:46
88N. SchmidtD000+120.18000—20:40
9C. KellerR112+260.86000—20:07
28I. ColeD000010.15010—19:01
11D. GuentherR000020.23100—16:49
26D. SimashevD000-100.00220—16:49
92L. CooleyC000-110.301005016:40
27B. HaytonC000+150.550006316:24
77J. PeterkaR000-130.19000—15:37
2O. MaattaD000000.00000—14:01
82K. StenlundC000010.231007813:53
67L. CrouseL000010.06100—13:30
22J. McBainC000030.3321010013:25
56K. YamamotoR000010.130205012:42
53M. CarconeL000030.24402—11:44
13B. TanevL000000.00112—10:17
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70K. Vejmelka(W)18171.9442.06+1.0660:41

Season series

UTA leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).