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Ducks at Stars
NHL

Anaheim Ducks at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Anaheim Ducks
▸7
Dallas Stars
5
FinalTV Victory+, KCOP-13·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Anaheim Ducks beat the Dallas Stars 7-5. The Ducks came back from two goals down. The Ducks led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Olen Zellweger's goal at 17:05 of the second period, which took the Ducks' chances from 48% to 70%. Expected goals favored the Ducks, 3.7 to 2.9; shots on goal were ANA 25, DAL 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Lukas Dostal stopped 21 of 26 (.808), 2.0 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 18 of 24 (.750), 3.2 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Chris Kreider (2 G), 2. Wyatt Johnston (2 G, 1 A), 3. Leo Carlsson (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    ANA
    C. Kreider2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    W. Johnston2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    ANA
    L. Carlsson1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ANAANA0741137725
DALDAL2815213526

Scoring

12 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    W. Johnston(8)PPG
    M. Rantanen (11), M. Heiskanen (4)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-1
    5:49
  2. DAL
    W. Johnston(9)PPG
    M. Heiskanen (5), J. Robertson (9)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-2
    16:18

2nd period

  1. ANA
    C. Kreider(8)PPG
    L. Carlsson (14)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    1:16
  2. ANA
    I. Moore(1)
    R. Poehling (5), N. Nesterenko (6)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-2
    2:48
  3. DAL
    T. Seguin(4)
    S. Steel (5), M. Heiskanen (6)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-3
    8:19
  4. ANA
    C. Gauthier(11)
    A. Killorn (3)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-3
    14:07
  5. ANA
    O. Zellweger(1)PPG
    B. Sennecke (4), A. Killorn (4)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +21 ptsVideo
    4-3
    17:05

3rd period

  1. ANA
    C. Kreider(9)
    D. Helleson (5), T. Terry (11)
    tip-inxG 0.08win prob +18 ptsVideo
    5-3
    0:16
  2. DAL
    M. Rantanen(8)PPG
    W. Johnston (8), J. Robertson (10)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +13 ptsVideo
    5-4
    1:50
  3. ANA
    L. Carlsson(6)SHG
    T. Terry (12)
    slapxG 0.20win prob +18 ptsVideo
    6-4
    9:22
  4. DAL
    R. Hintz(2)
    M. Rantanen (12), M. Heiskanen (7)
    deflectedxG 0.06win prob +7 ptsVideo
    6-5
    16:39
  5. ANA
    M. McTavish(3)EN
    B. Sennecke (5), C. Gauthier (7)
    snapxG 0.88win prob +5 ptsVideo
    7-5
    18:07

Penalties

ANA 10 PIM·DAL 10 PIM

1st

  • 4:40ANANikita Nesterenko · Hookingdrawn by Mavrik Bourque2 min
  • 13:00DALRadek Faksa · Trippingdrawn by Pavel Mintyukov2 min
  • 16:08ANAIan Moore · Hookingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min
  • 19:24DALSam Steel · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Nesterenko2 min

2nd

  • 15:16DALAlexander Petrovic · Trippingdrawn by Beckett Sennecke2 min

3rd

  • 1:44ANAJacob Trouba · Hookingdrawn by Oskar Bäck2 min
  • 2:53ANAMason McTavish · Elbowingdrawn by Mavrik Bourque2 min
  • 4:32DALMikko Rantanen · Slashingdrawn by Drew Helleson2 min
  • 8:05ANAIan Moore · High stickingdrawn by Thomas Harley2 min
  • 19:04DALMiro Heiskanen · Hookingdrawn by Nikita Nesterenko2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalANA goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Olen Zellweger, 2nd 17:05 — ANA 48% → 70%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.23T. Seguin · Goal · xG 0.22M. Rantanen · Goal · xG 0.18L. Bichsel · Missed · xG 0.18W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.18R. Faksa · On goal · xG 0.17T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.17J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.15M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.14R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.14S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.13W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.13W. Johnston · Goal · xG 0.13W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.12T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.09M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08R. Hintz · Goal · xG 0.06T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.06E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.05J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.05M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.04R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.03M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.03J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.02T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.02J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.02A. Petrovic · On goal · xG 0.02M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · Missed · xG 0.01A. Petrovic · On goal · xG 0.00M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL5 G · 2.9 xG · 32 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ANAvsDAL
3.76 G
All situations
5 G2.9
1.63 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
1.02 G
Power play
3 G1.2
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ANA48%52%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.81 – 2.94

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ANAvsDAL
25
Shots on goal
26
41%
Faceoffs
59%
2/5
Power play
3/5
10
Penalty minutes
10
22
Hits
15
10
Blocked shots
19
10
Giveaways
17
5
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Anaheim Ducks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2J. LaCombeD000030.16100—29:21
65J. TroubaD000+240.28312—24:12
19T. TerryR022+220.28010—20:47
91L. CarlssonC112+210.200003820:14
14D. HellesonD011+100.00410—20:02
61C. GauthierL112+140.331006018:40
17A. KillornL022+100.0630010018:35
51O. ZellwegerD101+220.17220—17:58
20C. KreiderL202+140.45000—17:53
25R. PoehlingC011000.061103814:57
23M. McTavishC101+210.940023614:50
45B. SenneckeR022+110.19100—14:21
98P. MintyukovD000+100.00010—12:48
13N. NesterenkoC011000.16202011:30
74I. MooreD101010.21014—10:12
24J. HarkinsC000-100.000104309:52
44R. JohnstonL000010.02300—09:43
77F. VatranoR000-110.21110—08:51
Anaheim Ducks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1L. Dostal(W)26215.8082.95-2.0559:49

Season series

ANA leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).