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Ducks at Lightning
NHL

Anaheim Ducks at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Anaheim Ducks
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
FinalTV The Spot, Victory+·Benchmark International Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Anaheim Ducks 4-3. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. The Lightning led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Anthony Cirelli's goal at 16:45 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 59% to 93%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 4.7 to 2.6; shots on goal were ANA 40, TBL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Lukas Dostal stopped 29 of 33 (.879), 0.7 goals saved above expected; Jonas Johansson stopped 37 of 40 (.925). Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (2 A), 2. Anthony Cirelli (2 G, 1 A), 3. Jake Guentzel (2 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov2 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    A. Cirelli2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    J. Guentzel2 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
ANAANA015114211340
TBLTBL11229112433

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    J. Guentzel(3)
    B. Hagel (2), A. Cirelli (2)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    9:10

2nd period

  1. ANA
    J. Trouba(2)
    T. Terry (6), M. McTavish (6)
    slapxG 0.05win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    4:42
  2. TBL
    J. Guentzel(4)
    B. Point (5), N. Kucherov (4)
    deflectedxG 0.12win prob +19 ptsVideo
    1-2
    12:19
  3. TBL
    A. Cirelli(4)
    B. Hagel (3), V. Hedman (6)
    backhandxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    14:20

3rd period

  1. ANA
    R. Poehling(1)
    R. Johnston (3), D. Helleson (2)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-3
    7:11
  2. ANA
    T. Terry(3)
    C. Gauthier (2), L. Carlsson (6)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +29 ptsVideo
    3-3
    8:10
  3. TBL
    A. Cirelli(5)PPG
    N. Kucherov (5), V. Hedman (7)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +33 ptsVideo
    3-4
    16:45

Penalties

ANA 19 PIM·TBL 11 PIM

1st

  • 3:13TBLErik Cernak · Trippingdrawn by Leo Carlsson2 min
  • 4:13ANALeo Carlsson · Trippingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 9:45TBLPontus Holmberg · Trippingdrawn by Cutter Gauthier2 min
  • 11:19ANAMason McTavish · Interferencedrawn by Victor Hedman2 min
  • 15:58ANARoss Johnston · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 15:58TBLEmil Lilleberg · Unsportsmanlike conductdrawn by Ross Johnston2 min
  • 15:58ANARoss Johnston · Fightingdrawn by Emil Lilleberg5 min
  • 15:58TBLEmil Lilleberg · Fightingdrawn by Ross Johnston5 min

2nd

  • 17:18ANASam Colangelo · Interferencedrawn by Gage Goncalves2 min

3rd

  • 3:16ANAOlen Zellweger · Hookingdrawn by Pontus Holmberg2 min
  • 4:47ANACutter Gauthier · Hookingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 15:42ANARoss Johnston · Trippingdrawn by Emil Lilleberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalANA goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Anthony Cirelli, 3rd 16:45 — TBL 59% → 93%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.32J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.28J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.21B. Point · On goal · xG 0.21B. Point · On goal · xG 0.19B. Point · On goal · xG 0.19B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.19B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.19B. Point · On goal · xG 0.16Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.14D. James · On goal · xG 0.14N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.14J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.13A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.13J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.13J. Guentzel · Goal · xG 0.12A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.11B. Point · On goal · xG 0.11N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.11A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.11A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.10A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.09J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.08V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.07G. Goncalves · On goal · xG 0.06V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.06V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.06B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.05N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.05D. James · On goal · xG 0.04C. D'Astous · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04P. Holmberg · Missed · xG 0.04V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.04J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.04N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.03G. Goncalves · Missed · xG 0.03Z. Girgensons · On goal · xG 0.03A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.02D. James · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.02E. Lilleberg · Missed · xG 0.01A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.01V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.01E. Lilleberg · On goal · xG 0.00C. Douglas · On goal · xG 0.00J. Moser · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL4 G · 4.7 xG · 55 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

ANAvsTBL
2.63 G
All situations
4 G4.7
2.03 G
Even strength
3 G2.9
0.50 G
Power play
1 G1.8
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 104 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
ANA22%78%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.62 – 4.55

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

ANAvsTBL
40
Shots on goal
33
48%
Faceoffs
52%
0/2
Power play
1/6
19
Penalty minutes
11
14
Hits
21
17
Blocked shots
15
10
Giveaways
23
8
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Anaheim Ducks skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
65J. TroubaD101+140.12220—27:31
2J. LaCombeD000040.07040—27:26
91L. CarlssonC011+120.130023922:20
14D. HellesonD011020.03010—19:29
19T. TerryR112+240.55000—18:49
17A. KillornL000010.01000—18:15
61C. GauthierL011+270.35112—18:01
98P. MintyukovD000000.00030—17:57
23M. McTavishC011-130.381225017:19
13N. NesterenkoC000+100.033106715:27
45B. SenneckeR000-210.08000—15:16
51O. ZellwegerD000030.20022—15:07
25R. PoehlingC101030.321005013:25
77F. VatranoR000030.0721010011:26
74I. MooreD000-100.00000—10:22
12S. ColangeloR000-300.00202—08:11
44R. JohnstonL011000.02209—06:30
64M. GranlundC000030.290006306:07
Anaheim Ducks goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1L. Dostal(L)33294.8794.69+0.6960:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).