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Stars at Predators
NHL

Dallas Stars at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
1
Nashville Predators
▸5
FinalTV FDSNSO, Victory+·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Dallas Stars 5-1. The Stars scored first; the Predators answered. The Predators led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Justin Barron's goal at 19:45 of the first period, which took the Predators' chances from 68% to 83%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.3 to 2.5; shots on goal were DAL 30, NSH 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Jake Oettinger stopped 17 of 22 (.773), 2.9 goals below expected; Juuse Saros stopped 29 of 30 (.967), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan O'Reilly (1 G, 2 A), 2. Jordan Oesterle (1 G, 1 A), 3. Juuse Saros (29 saves, .967).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. O'Reilly1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    J. Oesterle1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NSH
    J. Saros29 saves, .967

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL11101207130
NSHNSH312210012534

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    M. Marchment(22)
    M. Duchene (52), T. Seguin (12)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    0:16
  2. NSH
    J. Oesterle(4)
    R. O'Reilly (31)
    slapxG 0.01win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    13:02
  3. NSH
    J. Vrana(9)
    J. Oesterle (6), F. Svechkov (9)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    13:51
  4. NSH
    J. Barron(6)
    L. Evangelista (22), R. O'Reilly (32)
    tip-inxG 0.14win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    19:45

2nd period

  1. NSH
    J. Marchessault(21)
    S. Stamkos (26), F. Forsberg (44)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-4
    6:31
  2. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(21)PPG
    F. Forsberg (45), J. Marchessault (35)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +2 pts
    1-5
    9:49

Penalties

DAL 8 PIM·NSH 12 PIM

1st

  • 1:46NSHZachary L'Heureux · High sticking double minordrawn by Brendan Smith4 min
  • 9:37NSHJakub Vrana · Abuse of officials2 min
  • 10:18DALRoope Hintz · Interferencedrawn by Nick Blankenburg2 min

2nd

  • 3:43NSHJakub Vrana · Trippingdrawn by Esa Lindell2 min
  • 9:29DALBrendan Smith · Interferencedrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 18:44NSHBrady Skjei · Slashingdrawn by Roope Hintz2 min

3rd

  • 1:30DALCody Ceci · Hookingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 2:59NSHJonathan Marchessault · Holdingdrawn by Brendan Smith2 min
  • 12:13DALTyler Seguin · Hookingdrawn by Jakub Vrana2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalDAL goalFinal: NSH 100%

Biggest swing: Justin Barron, 1st 19:45 — NSH 68% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.22J. Marchessault · Goal · xG 0.20C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.20M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.20M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.18J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.15J. Barron · Goal · xG 0.14Z. L'Heureux · On goal · xG 0.13R. O'Reilly · Goal · xG 0.13C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.13F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.12R. O'Reilly · On goal · xG 0.10M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.09J. Vrana · Goal · xG 0.09L. Evangelista · Missed · xG 0.09M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.09M. Del Gaizo · Missed · xG 0.08F. Svechkov · Missed · xG 0.08F. Svechkov · On goal · xG 0.07M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.06M. Del Gaizo · On goal · xG 0.06N. Blankenburg · Missed · xG 0.06M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.05J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.05M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.05C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.05J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.05L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.04L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.04F. Svechkov · Missed · xG 0.04J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.03M. Del Gaizo · On goal · xG 0.03J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.03M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.02F. Svechkov · Missed · xG 0.02L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.02J. Marchessault · Missed · xG 0.02M. Del Gaizo · On goal · xG 0.02M. Wood · Missed · xG 0.01J. Oesterle · Goal · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · Missed · xG 0.01L. Evangelista · On goal · xG 0.01M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.01S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.01M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.01M. McCarron · On goal · xG 0.00C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH5 G · 3.3 xG · 48 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsNSH
2.51 G
All situations
5 G3.3
2.01 G
Even strength
4 G2.9
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.3
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL36%64%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.52 – 3.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsNSH
30
Shots on goal
34
54%
Faceoffs
46%
0/6
Power play
1/4
8
Penalty minutes
12
11
Hits
12
11
Blocked shots
16
18
Giveaways
21
6
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
55T. HarleyD000-120.09110—22:29
96M. RantanenR000-230.2800010021:15
44C. CeciD000-100.02022—19:54
53W. JohnstonC000020.2901010019:52
23E. LindellD000-120.02000—18:53
24R. HintzC000070.500024618:33
14J. BennL000030.19110—18:20
64M. GranlundC000010.2001010017:56
95M. DucheneC011-100.001001417:21
46I. LyubushkinD000-120.05110—15:55
2B. SmithD000-100.04212—15:31
27M. MarchmentL101010.23110—14:55
91T. SeguinC011+130.331027114:48
22M. BourqueC000-200.001103814:45
63E. DadonovL000-210.09000—12:55
18S. SteelC000-310.090007112:22
3M. DumbaD000-120.09200—11:50
21J. RobertsonL000000.00010—06:06
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Oettinger(L)22175.7732.09-2.9140:00
1C. DeSmith121201.0001.25+1.2520:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).