Skip to content
Predators at Stars
NHL

Nashville Predators at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
▸4
Dallas Stars
1
FinalTV FDSNSO, Victory+·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Dallas Stars 4-1. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tommy Novak's goal at 13:33 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 67% to 85%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 4.0 to 2.6; shots on goal were NSH 26, DAL 36. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Stars win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Justus Annunen stopped 35 of 36 (.972), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 22 of 25 (.880). Three stars: 1. Ryan O'Reilly (2 G, 1 A), 2. Justus Annunen (35 saves, .972), 3. Lian Bichsel (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NSH
    R. O'Reilly2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NSH
    J. Annunen35 saves, .972
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    L. Bichsel1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH0831216426
DALDAL05016115136

Scoring

5 goals

2nd period

  1. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(6)
    J. Marchessault (9), A. Wilsby (1)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-0
    11:40
  2. NSH
    T. Novak(5)
    J. Marchessault (10), S. Stamkos (8)
    wristxG 0.18win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-0
    13:33
  3. NSH
    R. O'Reilly(7)
    K. Gravel (1)
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +9 ptsVideo
    3-0
    14:39

3rd period

  1. DAL
    L. Bichsel(1)
    S. Steel (9), J. Benn (11)
    snapxG 0.03win prob +3 ptsVideo
    3-1
    10:34
  2. NSH
    Z. L'Heureux(3)EN
    R. O'Reilly (10), G. Nyquist (5)
    snapxG 0.89win prob +1 ptsVideo
    4-1
    16:47

Penalties

NSH 4 PIM·DAL 4 PIM

1st

  • 1:46DALLian Bichsel · Cross checkingdrawn by Mark Jankowski2 min

2nd

  • 10:36NSHSteven Stamkos · Roughingdrawn by Sam Steel2 min
  • 10:36DALSam Steel · Roughingdrawn by Steven Stamkos2 min
  • 19:25NSHFilip Forsberg · Slashingdrawn by Ilya Lyubushkin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalNSH goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Tommy Novak, 2nd 13:33 — NSH 67% → 85%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.21M. Marchment · Missed · xG 0.18E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.18W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.17W. Johnston · Missed · xG 0.15M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.14J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.13J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.12M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.10T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.08W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.08M. Bourque · On goal · xG 0.08W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.07M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.06E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.06S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.06J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.06W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.06W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.05E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.05L. Stankoven · Missed · xG 0.05E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.05N. Lundkvist · On goal · xG 0.05M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.04J. Benn · On goal · xG 0.03L. Bichsel · Goal · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.02J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Lindell · On goal · xG 0.02N. Lundkvist · On goal · xG 0.02N. Lundkvist · On goal · xG 0.02T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.02T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.02J. Benn · Missed · xG 0.01R. Hintz · On goal · xG 0.01E. Dadonov · On goal · xG 0.01T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.01S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.01J. Robertson · Missed · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.00L. Bichsel · On goal · xG 0.00M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.00M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL1 G · 2.6 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsDAL
4.03 G
All situations
1 G2.6
2.43 G
Even strength
1 G2.2
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH49%51%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.54 – 2.57

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsDAL
26
Shots on goal
36
39%
Faceoffs
61%
0/1
Power play
0/1
4
Penalty minutes
4
20
Hits
18
18
Blocked shots
9
10
Giveaways
12
4
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
76B. SkjeiD000020.04000—22:36
83A. WilsbyD011+420.18010—22:02
5K. GravelD011+300.02110—20:00
37N. BlankenburgD000000.46010—18:58
81J. MarchessaultR022+230.42100—18:23
9F. ForsbergL000020.16122—17:40
2L. SchennD000-110.21130—17:24
7M. Del GaizoD000050.09300—16:59
91S. StamkosC011+100.250421416:28
90R. O'ReillyC213+330.321106016:10
10C. SissonsC000000.000307115:02
14G. NyquistR011+200.1310010014:56
77L. EvangelistaR000-110.00100—14:53
36C. SmithR000010.01300—13:39
17M. JankowskiL000-110.210103313:35
82T. NovakC101020.441004013:27
68Z. L'HeureuxL101+231.03300—13:04
47M. McCarronC000000.003103610:44
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
29J. Annunen(W)36351.9722.61+1.6160:00

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).