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Red Wings at Lightning
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
▸4
Tampa Bay Lightning
3
Final/OTTV FDSNFL, FDSNDET·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Detroit Red Wings beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3 in overtime, Marco Kasper scoring at 3:22. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Marco Kasper's goal at 3:22 of overtime, which took the Red Wings' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 2.5 to 2.1; shots on goal were DET 26, TBL 21. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Alex Lyon stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 0.9 goals below expected; Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 22 of 26 (.846), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Marco Kasper (2 G), 2. Gage Goncalves (2 G), 3. Brandon Hagel (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    DET
    M. Kasper2 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    G. Goncalves2 G
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    B. Hagel2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
DETDET092511012426
TBLTBL19181400321

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    A. Cirelli(27)
    B. Hagel (51), D. Raddysh (31)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:01

2nd period

  1. DET
    P. Kane(21)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.20win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    4:07
  2. DET
    T. Motte(4)
    J. Holl (5), W. Lagesson (1)
    snapxG 0.20win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-1
    16:37
  3. TBL
    G. Goncalves(7)
    Unassisted
    deflectedxG 0.04win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-2
    17:52

3rd period

  1. TBL
    G. Goncalves(8)
    B. Hagel (52), A. Cirelli (29)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +24 ptsVideo
    2-3
    1:38
  2. DET
    M. Kasper(17)
    A. DeBrincat (31), P. Kane (36)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +34 ptsVideo
    3-3
    12:59

Overtime

  1. DET
    M. Kasper(18)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.12win prob +51 ptsVideo
    4-3
    3:22

Penalties

DET 0 PIM·TBL 2 PIM

1st

  • 6:53TBLRyan McDonagh · Trippingdrawn by Dylan Larkin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalDET goalFinal: TBL 0%

Biggest swing: Marco Kasper, OT 3:22 — DET 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.23B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.19A. Cirelli · Goal · xG 0.16O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.13G. Goncalves · Goal · xG 0.12J. Guentzel · Missed · xG 0.11B. Point · On goal · xG 0.11B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.11O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.10Z. Girgensons · Missed · xG 0.09G. Goncalves · Missed · xG 0.08N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.08Y. Gourde · On goal · xG 0.07R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.07E. Lilleberg · Missed · xG 0.05N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.05R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.05G. Goncalves · Goal · xG 0.04B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.04E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.02N. Perbix · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.02N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.02N. Perbix · Missed · xG 0.02V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01O. Bjorkstrand · Missed · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01D. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.01J. Guentzel · On goal · xG 0.00O. Bjorkstrand · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL3 G · 2.1 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsTBL
2.54 G
All situations
3 G2.1
2.34 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.0
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 83 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET57%43%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.50 – 2.12

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsTBL
26
Shots on goal
21
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/1
Power play
0/0
0
Penalty minutes
2
21
Hits
18
18
Blocked shots
15
19
Giveaways
28
3
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD000+130.45130—24:27
77S. EdvinssonD000+120.09020—24:03
8B. ChiarotD000-110.07120—22:20
88P. KaneR112+220.40020—19:56
92M. KasperC202+350.452008019:52
20A. JohanssonD000-120.08000—19:52
93A. DeBrincatR011+220.150005019:40
48J. BerggrenR000-200.06000—18:47
71D. LarkinC000-320.271007418:12
23L. RaymondL000-310.12000—17:33
84W. LagessonD011010.00210—15:51
37J. CompherL000000.000104015:16
3J. HollD011+100.00020—15:15
27M. RasmussenC000000.04300014:34
11V. TarasenkoR000020.09100—13:55
14T. MotteC101+120.202303810:39
15C. SmithC000+110.03020010:02
24A. WatsonL000+100.02800—09:52
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34A. Lyon(W)21183.8572.14-0.8663:22

Season series

Tied 2-2

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).