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Penguins at Sabres
NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Pittsburgh Penguins
3
Buffalo Sabres
▸7
FinalTV SN-PIT, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 7-3. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 7-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jiri Kulich's goal at 3:36 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 69% to 84%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.8 to 2.0; shots on goal were PIT 25, BUF 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 15 of 18 (.833), 1.6 goals below expected; James Reimer stopped 23 of 25 (.920), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jiri Kulich (2 G), 2. Tyson Kozak (1 G, 1 A), 3. Peyton Krebs (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J.Kulich2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    T. Kozak1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    P. Krebs1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PITPIT1701226325
BUFBUF21051208730

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(36)
    Z. Benson (15), R. Dahlin (43)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:27
  2. BUF
    P. Krebs(7)
    A. Tuch (25), C. Clifton (11)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    4:44
  3. PIT
    S. Crosby(26)
    R. Rakell (31), M. Grzelcyk (34)
    snapxG 0.23win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    11:11

2nd period

  1. BUF
    J.Kulich(13)
    B. Byram (27), T. Thompson (27)
    snapxG 0.12win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    3:36
  2. BUF
    M. Samuelsson(4)
    I. Rosen (1), R. Dahlin (44)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +9 ptsVideo
    1-4
    5:20
  3. BUF
    J.Kulich(14)
    B. Byram (28), J. Quinn (17)
    snapxG 0.04win prob +3 ptsVideo
    1-5
    11:34
  4. BUF
    T. Kozak(3)
    B. Malenstyn (6), P. Krebs (14)
    backhandxG 0.15win prob +1 ptsVideo
    1-6
    12:02
  5. BUF
    A. Tuch(28)
    O. Power (30), T. Kozak (2)
    snapxG 0.12Video
    1-7
    19:34

3rd period

  1. PIT
    B. Lizotte(10)
    Unassisted
    xG 0.23Video
    2-7
    2:16
  2. PIT
    K. Hayes(11)
    C. Timmins (10), R. Graves (3)
    wristxG 0.09Video
    3-7
    13:54

Penalties

PIT 15 PIM·BUF 13 PIM

1st

  • 6:41PITSidney Crosby · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 14:18BUFZach Benson · High stickingdrawn by Kris Letang2 min

2nd

  • 6:23BUFConnor Clifton · Interferencedrawn by Bryan Rust2 min
  • 9:32PITBlake Lizotte · High stickingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 18:05PITConnor Dewar · Roughingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 18:05BUFRasmus Dahlin · Roughingdrawn by Connor Dewar2 min

3rd

  • 5:53PITConnor Dewar · Roughingdrawn by Jacob Bernard-Docker2 min
  • 5:53PITConnor Dewar · Fightingdrawn by Jacob Bernard-Docker5 min
  • 5:53BUFJacob Bernard-Docker · Fightingdrawn by Connor Dewar5 min
  • 14:54PITVladislav Kolyachonok · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 15:01BUFJiri Kulich · Trippingdrawn by Conor Timmins2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPIT goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Jiri Kulich, 2nd 3:36 — BUF 69% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.30J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.23P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.18T. Kozak · Goal · xG 0.15Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.15T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.15T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.14P. Krebs · Goal · xG 0.12J. Kulich · Goal · xG 0.12A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.12R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.10B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.09J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.08J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.08M. Samuelsson · Goal · xG 0.07R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.07R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.07J. Kulich · Missed · xG 0.07I. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.06J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.06I. Rosen · Missed · xG 0.05T. Kozak · On goal · xG 0.05I. Rosen · On goal · xG 0.05R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.05J. Kulich · Goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.03T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.02C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.02B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.02Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bernard-Docker · Missed · xG 0.01C. Clifton · Missed · xG 0.01C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.00B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.00R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF7 G · 2.8 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PITvsBUF
2.03 G
All situations
7 G2.8
1.73 G
Even strength
7 G2.2
0.30 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PIT34%66%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.91 – 2.78

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PITvsBUF
25
Shots on goal
30
58%
Faceoffs
42%
0/3
Power play
0/4
15
Penalty minutes
13
28
Hits
15
8
Blocked shots
14
14
Giveaways
15
8
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
17B. RustR000-150.17000—23:32
67R. RakellR011-200.00400—23:16
58K. LetangD000-330.02320—23:13
24M. GrzelcykD011-310.00020—23:12
87S. CrosbyC101-120.233026422:55
65E. KarlssonD000020.26000—19:27
46B. LizotteC101-220.4920210019:00
20C. TimminsD011+110.03110—18:24
55N. AcciariC000-200.002005616:26
15J. KoppanenL000-100.02310—16:08
13K. HayesR101060.574005315:13
27R. GravesD011000.00210—12:39
19C. DewarC000-120.16409012:31
5R. SheaD000-200.00000—11:55
43D. HeinenL000+100.00000—10:52
53P. TomasinoR000-210.02000—08:45
23V. KolyachonokD000-100.00002—08:30
52E. BemstromC000000.00010004:20
Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39A. Nedeljkovic18153.8331.39-1.6134:22
35T. Jarry(L)1284.6671.44-2.5625:20

Season series

PIT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).