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Boston Bruins at Carolina Hurricanes

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Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Boston Bruins 3-2. The Hurricanes scored first and never trailed. The Hurricanes led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Seth Jarvis's goal at 19:41 of the third period, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 52% to 99%. Expected goals favored the Bruins, 2.9 to 2.4; shots on goal were BOS 34, CAR 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Bruins win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Joonas Korpisalo stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 0.6 goals below expected; Pyotr Kochetkov stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 0.9 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Seth Jarvis (1 G), 2. Sebastian Aho (1 G), 3. Pyotr Kochetkov (32 saves, .941).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis1 G
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Aho1 G
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    P. Kochetkov32 saves, .941

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BOSBOS11409111234
CARCAR1914110323

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(24)SHG
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    6:29
  2. BOS
    P. Zacha (27), A. Peeke (13)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    18:55

2nd period

  1. CAR
    wristxG 0.01win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-2
    2:06

3rd period

  1. BOS
    backhandxG 0.42win prob +24 ptsVideo
    2-2
    1:14
  2. CAR
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.23win prob +48 ptsVideo
    2-3
    19:41

Penalties

BOS 6 PIM·CAR 4 PIM

1st

  • 2:34BOSBrandon Carlo · Trippingdrawn by Andrei Svechnikov2 min
  • 5:44CARMikko Rantanen · Hookingdrawn by Ian Mitchell2 min
  • 10:21CARAndrei Svechnikov · Trippingdrawn by Charlie Coyle2 min

2nd

  • 5:39BOSMark Kastelic · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 17:26BOSMatthew Poitras · Trippingdrawn by Sebastian Aho2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalBOS goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Seth Jarvis, 3rd 19:41 — CAR 52% → 99%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.24S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.23M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.22J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.16E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.15M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.15J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.14J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.13T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.12A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.11S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.10J. Blake · On goal · xG 0.09T. Hall · On goal · xG 0.08A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.08S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.07S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.05E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.05S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.03J. Chatfield · Missed · xG 0.03B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.02T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.02S. Gostisbehere · Missed · xG 0.02B. Burns · Goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.01A. Svechnikov · Missed · xG 0.01J. Martinook · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.00J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR3 G · 2.4 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BOSvsCAR
2.92 G
All situations
3 G2.4
2.62 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.10 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 82 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BOS58%42%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.84 – 2.39

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BOSvsCAR
34
Shots on goal
23
61%
Faceoffs
39%
0/2
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
4
25
Hits
13
12
Blocked shots
13
10
Giveaways
17
2
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Boston Bruins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
91N. ZadorovD000-100.00600—21:55
25B. CarloD000-100.03012—20:58
52A. PeekeD022+230.08210—20:58
88D. PastrnakR011070.68010—19:56
6M. LohreiD000+120.26110—19:52
18P. ZachaC011+140.420005019:49
29P. WotherspoonD000-110.01100—18:57
39M. GeekieC202040.711102517:59
13C. CoyleC000000.0020010017:22
28E. LindholmC000-230.230208617:17
10R. TufteL000010.02200—14:46
19J. BeecherC000000.001106714:11
14I. MitchellD000-100.04010—13:57
51M. PoitrasC000-120.050023812:47
47M. KastelicC000040.303226711:42
95V. LettieriC000-130.0531010010:56
38P. BrownC000000.0020010010:43
45C. KoepkeL000-100.00100—10:14
Boston Bruins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70J. Korpisalo(L)23203.8702.41-0.5959:41

Season series

CAR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).