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Canadiens at Sabres
NHL

Montréal Canadiens at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Montréal Canadiens
▸4
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV MSG-B, SNE·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Montréal Canadiens beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-2. The lead changed hands 2 times. The Canadiens led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Josh Anderson's goal at 13:33 of the second period, which took the Canadiens' chances from 28% to 47%. Expected goals favored the Canadiens, 3.3 to 2.2; shots on goal were MTL 29, BUF 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Canadiens win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Jakub Dobes stopped 23 of 25 (.920); Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 25 of 28 (.893). Three stars: 1. Alex Newhook (1 G), 2. Lane Hutson (2 A), 3. Alex Tuch (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    MTL
    A. Newhook1 G
  2. ★★
    MTL
    L. Hutson2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    A. Tuch1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL09310110429
BUFBUF092907225

Scoring

6 goals

2nd period

  1. MTL
    C. Caufield(29)PPG
    P. Laine (10), N. Suzuki (43)
    slapxG 0.19win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:13
  2. BUF
    A. Tuch(22)
    J. Bryson (5)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-1
    6:04
  3. BUF
    J.Kulich(12)
    R. Dahlin (38), J. Peterka (28)
    slapxG 0.14win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-2
    7:33
  4. MTL
    J. Anderson(10)
    C. Dvorak (13), L. Hutson (41)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-2
    13:33
  5. MTL
    A. Newhook(12)
    M. Matheson (22), L. Hutson (42)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-2
    19:57

3rd period

  1. MTL
    J. Evans(12)EN
    C. Dvorak (14)
    wristxG 0.77win prob +5 ptsVideo
    4-2
    18:22

Penalties

MTL 10 PIM·BUF 24 PIM

1st

  • 6:32BUFTage Thompson · Interferencedrawn by Owen Beck2 min
  • 18:28MTLAlexandre Carrier · Hookingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min

2nd

  • 0:39BUFBowen Byram · Slashingdrawn by Cole Caufield2 min
  • 14:35MTLAlexandre Carrier · High stickingdrawn by JJ Peterka2 min
  • 14:52BUFJJ Peterka · Interferencedrawn by Mike Matheson2 min
  • 19:24MTLJayden Struble · Roughingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min
  • 19:24BUFBeck Malenstyn · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Jakub Dobes2 min

3rd

  • 12:08BUFJordan Greenway · Roughingdrawn by Arber Xhekaj2 min
  • 12:08MTLArber Xhekaj · Roughingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 19:02MTLJayden Struble · Roughingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 19:02BUFJordan Greenway · Cross checkingdrawn by Jakub Dobes2 min
  • 19:02BUFDylan Cozens · Roughingdrawn by Jayden Struble2 min
  • 19:02BUFJJ Peterka · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalMTL goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Josh Anderson, 2nd 13:33 — MTL 28% → 47%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.28D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.18J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.16R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.16J. Kulich · Goal · xG 0.14T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.10D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.10T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.10J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.08A. Tuch · Goal · xG 0.07B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.07R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.05P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.05J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.05C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.05J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.04J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.03J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.03A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.03D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.03J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.02P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.02J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02J. Greenway · Missed · xG 0.02R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.02D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.01Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF2 G · 2.2 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsBUF
3.33 G
All situations
2 G2.2
2.12 G
Even strength
2 G1.8
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.4

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL56%44%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.46 – 2.15

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsBUF
29
Shots on goal
25
58%
Faceoffs
42%
1/4
Power play
0/2
10
Penalty minutes
24
27
Hits
28
28
Blocked shots
17
20
Giveaways
27
6
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8M. MathesonD011+100.00140—26:34
48L. HutsonD022+120.14020—21:58
14N. SuzukiC011030.240105720:29
45A. CarrierD000+120.04034—20:21
13C. CaufieldR101010.3421010017:58
47J. StrubleD000-110.05434—17:17
28C. DvorakC022+140.461105316:27
71J. EvansC101+110.773205816:14
72A. XhekajD000000.00222—16:05
20J. SlafkovskýL000020.16510—15:47
58D. SavardD000000.01030—15:35
17J. AndersonR101020.13210—14:41
11B. GallagherR000040.24210—13:58
15A. NewhookC101+120.192106013:41
40J. ArmiaR000010.09100—13:18
92P. LaineL011020.15010—11:25
51E. HeinemanL000-110.30100—10:29
62O. BeckC000010.021107509:43
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
75J. Dobes(W)25232.9202.17+0.1760:00

Season series

MTL leads 4-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).