Wild at Canadiens 4-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Minnesota Wild

▸4

Montréal Canadiens

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Recap

written from the game data

The Minnesota Wild beat the Montréal Canadiens 4-0. The Wild scored first and never trailed. The Wild led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Marco Rossi's goal at 5:47 of the second period, which took the Wild's chances from 64% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Wild, 4.2 to 2.4; shots on goal were MIN 27, MTL 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Canadiens win a replay of these chances 52% of the time. Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 19 of 19 (1.000), 2.4 goals saved above expected; Jakub Dobes stopped 23 of 26 (.885), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Marc-Andre Fleury (19 saves, 1.000), 2. Marco Rossi (1 G, 1 A), 3. Frederick Gaudreau (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
M. Fleury19 saves, 1.000
★★
M. Rossi1 G, 1 A
★★★
F. Gaudreau1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
MIN	08	28	211	427
MTL	03	05	011	019

Scoring

4 goals

2nd period

L. Ohgren(1)
F. Gaudreau (13), Y. Trenin (5)
snapxG 0.45win prob +17 ptsVideo
1-0
3:41
M. Rossi(18)
M. Foligno (11), R. Hartman (10)
snapxG 0.19win prob +17 ptsVideo
2-0
5:47

3rd period

D. Shore(1)
M. Rossi (28)
snapxG 0.12win prob +6 ptsVideo
3-0
5:56
F. Gaudreau(10)EN
Y. Trenin (6), J. Spurgeon (11)
snapxG 0.55Video
4-0
18:33

Penalties

2 PIM·

2 PIM

1st

16:09Kirby Dach · Trippingdrawn by Marco Rossi2 min

3rd

9:15Joel Eriksson Ek · Boardingdrawn by Alexandre Carrier2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: MTL

Biggest swing: Marco Rossi, 2nd 5:47 — MIN 64% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 2.4 xG · 39 att

←

attacks

attacks →

4 G · 4.2 xG · 45 att MTL

0 G · 2.4 xG · 39 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.23 G
All situations: 0 G2.4; 2.23 G
Even strength: 0 G1.7; 0.20 G
Power play: 0 G0.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

48%52%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.32 – 2.41

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

27
Shots on goal: 19; 38%
Faceoffs: 62%; 0/1
Power play: 0/1; 2
Penalty minutes: 2; 21
Hits: 18; 19
Blocked shots: 11; 5
Giveaways: 9; 10
Takeaways: 5

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
7B. FaberD	0	0	0	0	2	0.06	0	0	0	—	22:34
5J. MiddletonD	0	0	0	+1	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	22:16
46J. SpurgeonD	0	1	1	+2	1	0.41	1	3	0	—	20:13
12M. BoldyL	0	0	0	+1	3	0.30	0	0	0	—	20:10
36M. ZuccarelloR	0	0	0	0	3	1.04	2	1	0	—	20:01
14J. Eriksson EkC	0	0	0	0	3	0.26	4	1	2	40	18:42
47D. ChisholmD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	0	2	0	—	18:41
24Z. BogosianD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	17:55
4J. MerrillD	0	0	0	+2	1	0.02	1	3	0	—	17:24
17M. FolignoL	0	1	1	+1	1	0.04	0	0	0	—	16:18
23M. RossiC	1	1	2	+1	1	0.19	1	1	0	50	16:05
89F. GaudreauC	1	1	2	+2	3	0.66	1	1	0	33	14:09
38R. HartmanR	0	1	1	+1	1	0.07	2	0	0	75	13:58
13Y. TreninC	0	2	2	+2	0	0.05	4	1	0	0	12:30
94J. LaukoC	0	0	0	+1	1	0.14	1	0	0	0	12:26
22M. KhusnutdinovC	0	0	0	+1	2	0.15	1	0	0	13	12:05
28L. OhgrenL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.57	0	0	0	—	11:21
19D. ShoreC	1	0	1	+1	1	0.17	3	3	0	50	11:12

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
29M. Fleury(W)	19	19	0	1.000	2.44	+2.44	60:00

Season series

MIN leads 2-0

Nov 140@3Final
Jan 304@0this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Montréal Canadiens

2nd period

3rd period

1st

3rd

Box score