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Hurricanes at Sabres
NHL

Carolina Hurricanes at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Carolina Hurricanes
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV TNT, truTV·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Carolina Hurricanes 4-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Dylan Cozens's goal at 8:18 of the second period, which took the Sabres' chances from 71% to 86%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.8 to 3.2; shots on goal were CAR 37, BUF 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Dustin Tokarski stopped 21 of 24 (.875), 0.6 goals below expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 35 of 37 (.946), 1.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ryan McLeod (3 G), 2. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (35 saves, .946), 3. Dylan Cozens (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    R. McLeod3 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen35 saves, .946
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    D. Cozens1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
CARCAR01101828237
BUFBUF11121310424

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    R. McLeod(8)
    C. Clifton (8), B. Malenstyn (5)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:43

2nd period

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(10)
    A. Tuch (18)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-2
    8:18
  2. BUF
    R. McLeod(9)
    J. Zucker (17)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +7 ptsVideo
    0-3
    19:56

3rd period

  1. CAR
    J. Slavin(3)
    B. Burns (13), J. Kotkaniemi (13)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +5 ptsVideo
    1-3
    3:45
  2. CAR
    M. Necas(16)
    S. Gostisbehere (22), B. Burns (14)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +6 ptsVideo
    2-3
    16:50
  3. BUF
    R. McLeod(10)
    T. Thompson (16), J. Zucker (18)
    xG 0.95win prob +2 ptsVideo
    2-4
    19:36

Penalties

CAR 2 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 6:10BUFSam Lafferty · Kneeingdrawn by Jackson Blake2 min
  • 8:18BUFRyan McLeod · Cross checkingdrawn by Jack Roslovic2 min
  • 15:16CARSean Walker · Holding the stickdrawn by JJ Peterka2 min

2nd

  • 3:42BUFConnor Clifton · Interferencedrawn by Juha Jaaska2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalCAR goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Dylan Cozens, 2nd 8:18 — BUF 71% → 86%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.95R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.56T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.48R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.27Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.15P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.12J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.10J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.09A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.09S. Lafferty · Missed · xG 0.09T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.09J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.09B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.09Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.08A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.08T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.05D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.05R. McLeod · Goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04T. Kozak · Missed · xG 0.04T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.04A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.03P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.03A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02O. Power · Missed · xG 0.02S. Lafferty · Missed · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.01J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.01B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.00J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.00A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.00M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.00O. Power · Missed · xG 0.00J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.00R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.00O. Power · On goal · xG 0.00C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF4 G · 3.8 xG · 40 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

CARvsBUF
3.22 G
All situations
4 G3.8
2.32 G
Even strength
4 G2.0
0.80 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 103 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
CAR64%36%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.15 – 2.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

CARvsBUF
37
Shots on goal
24
50%
Faceoffs
50%
0/3
Power play
0/1
2
Penalty minutes
6
11
Hits
16
12
Blocked shots
25
17
Giveaways
20
2
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Carolina Hurricanes skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8B. BurnsD022080.12010—22:46
20S. AhoC000-150.700005720:40
74J. SlavinD101-110.02010—20:39
37A. SvechnikovR000030.42300—19:56
4S. GostisbehereD011+150.12020—19:44
24S. JarvisR000-220.14000—19:37
88M. NecasC101+110.130005019:33
7D. OrlovD000-200.02020—19:29
5J. ChatfieldD000-210.01100—16:09
82J. KotkaniemiC011020.330006715:39
26S. WalkerD000000.01042—15:19
96J. RoslovicC000-230.280107515:15
18J. DruryC000-130.150005014:10
48J. MartinookL000000.28200—13:47
53J. BlakeR000-120.1000010013:11
50E. RobinsonL000010.16010—12:04
11J. StaalC000-100.073003511:36
54J. JaaskaL000+100.12200—10:43
Carolina Hurricanes goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
34D. Tokarski(L)24213.8752.38-0.6257:43

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).