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Penguins at Hurricanes
NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins at Carolina Hurricanes

NHL scoreboard
Pittsburgh Penguins
3
Carolina Hurricanes
▸4
Final/OTTV FDSNSO, SN-PIT·Lenovo Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Carolina Hurricanes beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 4-3 in overtime, Sebastian Aho scoring at 1:30. The Hurricanes came back from two goals down. The Hurricanes led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Sebastian Aho's goal at 1:30 of overtime, which took the Hurricanes' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Hurricanes, 2.9 to 1.4; shots on goal were PIT 19, CAR 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Hurricanes win a replay of these chances 78% of the time. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.1 goals below expected; Dustin Tokarski stopped 16 of 19 (.842), 1.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Sebastian Aho (1 G, 2 A), 2. Seth Jarvis (2 G, 1 A), 3. Jalen Chatfield (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    CAR
    S. Aho1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    CAR
    S. Jarvis2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    CAR
    J. Chatfield1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
PITPIT25051900319
CARCAR093140513431

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    K. Hayes(5)
    D. O'Connor (8)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    3:47
  2. PIT
    M. Bunting(12)
    E. Karlsson (24), B. Rust (14)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    5:08

2nd period

  1. CAR
    S. Jarvis(10)
    S. Aho (29)
    snapxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    4:15
  2. CAR
    J. Chatfield(4)
    S. Aho (30), S. Jarvis (18)
    snapxG 0.17win prob +20 ptsVideo
    2-2
    12:45
  3. CAR
    S. Jarvis(11)
    A. Svechnikov (16), J. Staal (12)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +21 ptsVideo
    2-3
    16:18

3rd period

  1. PIT
    E. Karlsson(4)
    M. Grzelcyk (20), R. Rakell (15)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +24 ptsVideo
    3-3
    1:51

Overtime

  1. CAR
    S. Aho(13)
    D. Orlov (14), M. Necas (32)
    snapxG 0.37win prob +49 ptsVideo
    3-4
    1:30

Penalties

PIT 6 PIM·CAR 6 PIM

1st

  • 17:58PITBlake Lizotte · Cross checkingdrawn by Jackson Blake2 min

2nd

  • 8:32CARJordan Martinook · Trippingdrawn by Pierre-Olivier Joseph2 min
  • 16:50CARJuha Jaaska · Interferencedrawn by Noel Acciari2 min
  • 18:12PITserved by M. Bunting · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 2:34PITPierre-Olivier Joseph · Trippingdrawn by Dmitry Orlov2 min
  • 16:59CARJalen Chatfield · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CAR goalPIT goalFinal: CAR 100%

Biggest swing: Sebastian Aho, OT 1:30 — CAR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Aho · Goal · xG 0.37J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.22S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.19J. Chatfield · Goal · xG 0.17J. Blake · Missed · xG 0.16S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.15J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.14D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.10T. Smith · On goal · xG 0.09S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.08S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.08S. Jarvis · Goal · xG 0.08J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.07J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.06M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.06J. Staal · Missed · xG 0.06M. Necas · On goal · xG 0.06J. Jaaska · Missed · xG 0.05J. Kotkaniemi · On goal · xG 0.05J. Drury · On goal · xG 0.05S. Jarvis · On goal · xG 0.05E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.05J. Staal · On goal · xG 0.04S. Jarvis · Missed · xG 0.04B. Burns · On goal · xG 0.04E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.04T. Smith · Missed · xG 0.04J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.03S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.03D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.02D. Orlov · Missed · xG 0.02J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Drury · Missed · xG 0.02S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.02T. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01S. Walker · On goal · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.01S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.01T. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01M. Necas · Missed · xG 0.01S. Walker · Missed · xG 0.01J. Chatfield · On goal · xG 0.01D. Orlov · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01J. Roslovic · On goal · xG 0.01B. Burns · Missed · xG 0.01T. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01J. Slavin · Missed · xG 0.01J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.01J. Roslovic · Missed · xG 0.00J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.00J. Slavin · On goal · xG 0.00
CAR4 G · 2.9 xG · 54 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PITvsCAR
1.43 G
All situations
4 G2.9
1.23 G
Even strength
4 G2.4
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PIT22%78%CAR

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.37 – 2.88

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PITvsCAR
19
Shots on goal
31
44%
Faceoffs
56%
0/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
22
Hits
17
22
Blocked shots
11
7
Giveaways
6
11
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
58K. LetangD000-120.10200—25:40
28M. PetterssonD000000.00120—23:38
65E. KarlssonD112020.05020—22:46
17B. RustR011010.02020—21:08
24M. GrzelcykD011020.02000—20:47
87S. CrosbyC000-130.271003320:35
67R. RakellR011-320.15120—19:20
71E. MalkinC000000.001205017:44
8M. BuntingL101+110.21100—15:51
19C. GlassC000000.076304314:31
73P. JosephD000000.00332—14:13
10D. O'ConnorL011+100.00000—14:01
55N. AcciariC000010.073005513:00
13K. HayesR101020.240306712:18
38O. PickeringD000010.01000—11:38
46B. LizotteC000020.17012011:05
83M. NietoL000000.00120—11:05
72A. BeauvillierR000000.00200—09:12
Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39A. Nedeljkovic(O)31274.8712.92-1.0861:30

Season series

CAR leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).