Rangers at Predators 0-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

New York Rangers

Nashville Predators

▸2

FinalTV FDSNSO, MSG·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the New York Rangers 2-0. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jonathan Marchessault's goal at 13:37 of the first period, which took the Predators' chances from 54% to 67%. Expected goals favored the Predators, 3.0 to 2.3; shots on goal were NYR 25, NSH 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 55% of the time. Igor Shesterkin stopped 30 of 32 (.938), 0.6 goals saved above expected; Juuse Saros stopped 25 of 25 (1.000), 2.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Adam Wilsby (1 G), 2. Juuse Saros (25 saves, 1.000), 3. Jonathan Marchessault (1 G).

Three stars

★
A. Wilsby1 G
★★
J. Saros25 saves, 1.000
★★★
J. Marchessault1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NYR	09	08	08	025
NSH	18	014	110	232

Scoring

2 goals

1st period

J. Marchessault(8)
S. Stamkos (9), F. Forsberg (12)
wristxG 0.13win prob +14 ptsVideo
0-1
13:37

3rd period

A. Wilsby(1)
S. Stamkos (10), F. Forsberg (13)
wristxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
0-2
11:59

Penalties

11 PIM·

11 PIM

2nd

2:01Gustav Nyquist · Holdingdrawn by Alexis Lafrenière2 min
10:04Luke Evangelista · Cross checkingdrawn by Alexis Lafrenière2 min
10:04Alexis Lafrenière · Roughingdrawn by Luke Evangelista2 min
10:04Marc Del Gaizo · Roughingdrawn by Will Cuylle2 min
10:04Marc Del Gaizo · Fightingdrawn by Will Cuylle5 min
10:04Will Cuylle · Fightingdrawn by Marc Del Gaizo5 min
17:07Reilly Smith · Interferencedrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
19:55served by F. Chytil · Too many men on the ice2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: NSH

100%

Biggest swing: Jonathan Marchessault, 1st 13:37 — NSH 54% → 67%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 3.0 xG · 43 att

←

attacks

attacks →

0 G · 2.3 xG · 41 att NSH

2 G · 3.0 xG · 43 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.30 G
All situations: 2 G3.0; 1.80 G
Even strength: 2 G2.2; 0.40 G
Power play: 0 G0.4; 0.20 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 84 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

45%55%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.29 – 2.56

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 32; 53%
Faceoffs: 47%; 0/2
Power play: 0/2; 11
Penalty minutes: 11; 35
Hits: 27; 14
Blocked shots: 29; 14
Giveaways: 16; 5
Takeaways: 10

Box score

every player line

New York Rangers skaters
Skater	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
23A. FoxD	0	3	0.35	0	5	0	—	27:11
20C. KreiderL	0	2	0.03	3	0	0	—	21:25
55R. LindgrenD	0	0	0.02	2	1	0	—	21:06
16V. TrocheckC	0	2	0.47	7	0	0	65	20:59
13A. LafrenièreL	-1	2	0.16	1	0	2	—	18:54
6Z. JonesD	-1	0	0.02	2	0	0	—	18:35
4B. SchneiderD	-1	2	0.08	2	0	0	—	17:43
93M. ZibanejadC	-2	2	0.12	1	1	0	54	17:17
72F. ChytilC	0	2	0.15	1	1	0	25	16:40
65B. BerardL	0	1	0.15	2	1	0	—	16:29
18U. VaakanainenD	-1	1	0.01	2	2	0	—	15:06
50W. CuylleL	0	2	0.17	2	0	5	—	14:25
5C. RuhwedelD	-1	0	0.01	1	0	0	—	14:25
91R. SmithR	-2	0	0.00	3	0	2	—	12:42
39S. CarrickC	0	3	0.22	1	2	0	70	12:23
26J. VeseyL	0	0	0.00	2	0	0	100	11:06
84A. EdstromC	0	0	0.06	1	1	0	0	11:02
24K. KakkoR	-1	3	0.28	2	0	0	—	10:14

New York Rangers goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
31I. Shesterkin(L)	32	30	2	.938	2.64	+0.64	58:18

Season series

Tied 1-1

Dec 170@2this game
Mar 20@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

New York Rangers at Nashville Predators

1st period

3rd period

2nd

Box score