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Utah Hockey Club at Sabres
NHL

Utah Mammoth at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Utah Mammoth
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
2
FinalTV Utah16, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-2. The Sabres scored first; the Utah Hockey Club answered. The Utah Hockey Club led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nick Schmaltz's goal at 19:08 of the second period, which took the Utah Hockey Club's chances from 71% to 88%. Expected goals favored the Utah Hockey Club, 2.7 to 2.3; shots on goal were UTA 28, BUF 25. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Utah Hockey Club win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Karel Vejmelka stopped 23 of 25 (.920); Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 23 of 28 (.821), 2.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Michael Kesselring (1 G, 1 A), 2. Karel Vejmelka (23 saves, .920), 3. Nick Schmaltz (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    UTA
    M. Kesselring1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    UTA
    K. Vejmelka23 saves, .920
  3. ★★★
    UTA
    N. Schmaltz1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
UTAUTA01031325528
BUFBUF1705113225

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    T. Kozak(1)
    B. Malenstyn (3), D. Gilbert (1)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    10:14

2nd period

  1. UTA
    M. Kesselring(4)
    B. Hayton (7)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    3:18
  2. UTA
    M. Sergachev(7)
    A. Kerfoot (5), M. Carcone (3)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    3:42
  3. UTA
    N. Schmaltz(4)
    M. Kesselring (10), C. Keller (16)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-1
    19:08

3rd period

  1. UTA
    J. McBain(9)
    L. Cooley (15), D. Guenther (12)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +7 ptsVideo
    4-1
    2:11
  2. UTA
    K. Stenlund(2)
    O. Maatta (3), A. Kerfoot (6)
    wristxG 0.04Video
    5-1
    12:07
  3. BUF
    J.Kulich(3)
    J. Zucker (12), O. Power (13)
    wristxG 0.32
    5-2
    17:40

Penalties

UTA 11 PIM·BUF 5 PIM

1st

  • 12:17UTAIan Cole · Interferencedrawn by Alex Tuch2 min
  • 18:39UTAMikhail Sergachev · Interferencedrawn by Jason Zucker2 min

2nd

  • 9:16BUFBeck Malenstyn · Fightingdrawn by Michael Kesselring5 min
  • 9:16UTAMichael Kesselring · Fightingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn5 min

3rd

  • 6:50UTAIan Cole · Hookingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalUTA goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Nick Schmaltz, 2nd 19:08 — UTA 71% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Kulich · Goal · xG 0.32B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.16J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.15Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.13T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.11J. Kulich · On goal · xG 0.10B. Malenstyn · On goal · xG 0.10A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.09J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.08Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.08T. Kozak · Goal · xG 0.07D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.07Z. Benson · On goal · xG 0.07J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.07T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.06T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.06J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.06O. Power · On goal · xG 0.06A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.06O. Power · Missed · xG 0.05Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.05P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.04J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.04J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.03O. Power · On goal · xG 0.03B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.02H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.02C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bryson · On goal · xG 0.01D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.01R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.01N. Aube-Kubel · On goal · xG 0.01C. Clifton · Missed · xG 0.01C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF2 G · 2.3 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

UTAvsBUF
2.75 G
All situations
2 G2.3
2.55 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.5
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
UTA57%43%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.63 – 2.27

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

UTAvsBUF
28
Shots on goal
25
40%
Faceoffs
60%
0/0
Power play
0/3
11
Penalty minutes
5
9
Hits
39
19
Blocked shots
13
11
Giveaways
12
6
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Utah Mammoth skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2O. MaattaD011+220.16030—23:18
98M. SergachevD101+230.04032—23:01
28I. ColeD000+110.01044—21:41
4J. VälimäkiD000-100.00010—20:59
8N. SchmaltzC101+250.58000018:46
67L. CrouseL000000.21100—16:27
27B. HaytonC011+210.341105016:21
7M. KesselringD112+220.04005—16:12
41R. BortuzzoD000010.07330—15:50
63M. MaccelliL000000.02000—15:12
15A. KerfootC022+100.000003315:08
17N. BjugstadC000040.141103714:33
9C. KellerR011+210.130005014:12
82K. StenlundC101+130.130005613:52
92L. CooleyC011000.001003313:33
22J. McBainC101+120.36210012:27
11D. GuentherR011010.18020—12:24
53M. CarconeL011020.30000—10:31
Utah Mammoth goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
70K. Vejmelka(W)25232.9202.32+0.3259:33

Season series

UTA leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).