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Avalanche at Panthers
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸7
Florida Panthers
4
FinalTV ALT, SCRIPPS·Amerant Bank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Florida Panthers 7-4. The Panthers scored first; the Avalanche answered. The Avalanche led 5-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Samuel Girard's goal at 8:54 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 65% to 83%. Expected goals were close — COL 2.9, FLA 2.7; shots on goal were COL 25, FLA 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 62% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 27 of 31 (.871), 1.3 goals below expected; Sergei Bobrovsky stopped 18 of 24 (.750), 3.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Jonathan Drouin (2 G), 2. Mikko Rantanen (1 G, 3 A), 3. Cale Makar (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    J. Drouin2 G
  2. ★★
    COL
    M. Rantanen1 G, 3 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    C. Makar2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL1841027725
FLAFLA2715119431

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. FLA
    C. Verhaeghe(5)
    A. Lundell (9), M. Samoskevich (3)
    snapxG 0.02win prob +11 ptsVideo
    0-1
    0:52
  2. COL
    J. Drouin(1)
    C. Makar (21), A. Lehkonen (4)
    deflectedxG 0.47win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    9:13
  3. FLA
    A. Barkov(4)
    M. Tkachuk (9), N. Mikkola (9)
    backhandxG 0.51win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    15:44

2nd period

  1. COL
    J. Drouin(2)
    C. Makar (22), D. Toews (5)
    backhandxG 0.12win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-2
    0:34
  2. COL
    L. O'Connor(2)
    O. Kylington (1), I. Ivan (3)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
    3-2
    4:04
  3. COL
    S. Girard(2)
    M. Rantanen (16), V. Nichushkin (1)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +18 ptsVideo
    4-2
    8:54
  4. COL
    M. Rantanen(14)
    S. Girard (10), D. Toews (6)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +9 ptsVideo
    5-2
    16:58
  5. FLA
    S. Reinhart(16)PPG
    A. Ekblad (9), M. Tkachuk (10)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +6 ptsVideo
    5-3
    18:40

3rd period

  1. COL
    O. Kylington(1)
    V. Nichushkin (2), M. Rantanen (17)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +1 ptsVideo
    6-3
    15:49
  2. COL
    V. Nichushkin(1)EN
    N. MacKinnon (28), M. Rantanen (18)
    wristxG 0.78Video
    7-3
    17:15
  3. FLA
    A. Lundell(7)
    M. Samoskevich (4), U. Balinskis (6)
    wristxG 0.15Video
    7-4
    18:17

Penalties

COL 10 PIM·FLA 4 PIM

2nd

  • 17:46COLIvan Ivan · Hookingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min

3rd

  • 3:02COLArtturi Lehkonen · Holdingdrawn by A.J. Greer2 min
  • 4:06COLJosh Manson · Hookingdrawn by Aleksander Barkov2 min
  • 4:17FLAserved by M. Samoskevich · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 9:16FLAMatthew Tkachuk · Roughingdrawn by Miles Wood2 min
  • 9:16COLMiles Wood · Roughingdrawn by Matthew Tkachuk2 min
  • 18:20COLJoel Kiviranta · Interferencedrawn by Jonah Gadjovich2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalCOL goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: Samuel Girard, 2nd 8:54 — COL 65% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
A. Barkov · Goal · xG 0.51M. Samoskevich · Missed · xG 0.21A. Lundell · Goal · xG 0.16M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.14S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.14M. Samoskevich · Missed · xG 0.13E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.13S. Reinhart · Goal · xG 0.11M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.10C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.10E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.08A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.07J. Gadjovich · Missed · xG 0.07M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.05M. Samoskevich · On goal · xG 0.05A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.05C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.05A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.05A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.04A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.04S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.04C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.03E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.03S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.02U. Balinskis · On goal · xG 0.02C. Verhaeghe · Goal · xG 0.02S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.02C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.02N. Mikkola · Missed · xG 0.02G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01N. Mikkola · Missed · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.01A. Boqvist · On goal · xG 0.01M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01N. Mikkola · Missed · xG 0.01S. Bennett · On goal · xG 0.01M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01J. Boqvist · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.00A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.00A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.00
FLA4 G · 2.7 xG · 45 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsFLA
2.96 G
All situations
4 G2.7
2.16 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
0.00 G
Power play
1 G0.5

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL38%62%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.09 – 2.71

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsFLA
25
Shots on goal
31
39%
Faceoffs
61%
0/1
Power play
1/4
10
Penalty minutes
4
9
Hits
31
18
Blocked shots
14
21
Giveaways
12
5
Takeaways
3

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
27J. DrouinL202+140.6302010023:37
7D. ToewsD022+410.01030—23:20
8C. MakarD022+340.16030—22:58
29N. MacKinnonC011+320.171104022:24
62A. LehkonenL011+200.01012—20:29
49S. GirardD112010.03010—19:58
70S. MalinskiD000+120.02030—19:47
42J. MansonD000-220.03202—19:22
13V. NichushkinR123+320.83200—19:07
37C. MittelstadtC000+200.051204216:14
96M. RantanenR134+430.3601010015:46
58O. KylingtonD112+220.15000—14:40
17P. KellyC000-210.171005011:58
25L. O'ConnorR101010.10000—09:51
28M. WoodL000-100.15112—09:35
94J. KivirantaL000000.03002—09:15
51N. KovalenkoR000-100.00100—07:35
82I. IvanC011+100.000022905:30
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(W)31274.8712.75-1.2560:00

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).