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Islanders at Sabres
NHL

New York Islanders at Buffalo Sabres

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New York Islanders
▸4
Buffalo Sabres
3
FinalTV MSG-B, MSGSN·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Buffalo Sabres 4-3. The Sabres scored first; the Islanders answered. The Islanders led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Maxim Tsyplakov's goal at 5:25 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 47% to 64%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.9 to 3.5; shots on goal were NYI 36, BUF 35. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 58% of the time. Ilya Sorokin stopped 32 of 35 (.914); Devon Levi stopped 32 of 36 (.889), 1.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Maxim Tsyplakov (1 G, 1 A), 2. Bo Horvat (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jason Zucker (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    M. Tsyplakov1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    B. Horvat1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Zucker1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI110215111436
BUFBUF112010213335

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(1)PPG
    J. Zucker (6), R. Dahlin (6)
    snapxG 0.37win prob +9 ptsVideo
    0-1
    9:03
  2. NYI
    B. Horvat(4)
    A. Lee (1)
    backhandxG 0.18win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    9:43

2nd period

  1. NYI
    M. Tsyplakov(2)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.15win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    5:25
  2. NYI
    K. Palmieri(5)PPG
    M. Tsyplakov (5), S. Holmstrom (3)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-1
    12:20

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Zucker(3)
    T. Thompson (6), B. Byram (4)
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-2
    5:27
  2. NYI
    J. Pageau(2)
    B. Horvat (3), A. Lee (2)
    pokexG 0.26win prob +16 ptsVideo
    4-2
    8:08
  3. BUF
    O. Power(3)
    R. McLeod (2), B. Byram (5)
    wristxG 0.27win prob +3 ptsVideo
    4-3
    18:59

Penalties

NYI 15 PIM·BUF 15 PIM

1st

  • 6:04NYIScott Mayfield · Trippingdrawn by Beck Malenstyn2 min
  • 8:56NYIAdam Pelech · High stickingdrawn by Jordan Greenway2 min
  • 16:26BUFDylan Cozens · Hookingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min
  • 20:00BUFNicolas Aube-Kubel · Roughingdrawn by Noah Dobson2 min

2nd

  • 1:12NYIMaxim Tsyplakov · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 2:48NYIKyle MacLean · Trippingdrawn by Rasmus Dahlin2 min
  • 10:32BUFBowen Byram · Hookingdrawn by Maxim Tsyplakov2 min
  • 16:20NYIOliver Wahlstrom · Fightingdrawn by Jason Zucker5 min
  • 16:20BUFJason Zucker · Fightingdrawn by Oliver Wahlstrom5 min

3rd

  • 5:01NYIScott Mayfield · Ps slash on breakawaydrawn by Jason Zucker0 min
  • 9:59BUFJJ Peterka · Trippingdrawn by Scott Mayfield2 min
  • 13:45NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau · Cross checkingdrawn by Sam Lafferty2 min
  • 13:45BUFSam Lafferty · Roughingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalNYI goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Maxim Tsyplakov, 2nd 5:25 — NYI 47% → 64%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Cozens · Goal · xG 0.37J. Zucker · On goal · xG 0.29O. Power · Goal · xG 0.27T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.20T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.13D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.12R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.12J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.12J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.11O. Power · On goal · xG 0.10J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.10J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.09J. Zucker · Goal · xG 0.09A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.09J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.08J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.08C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.07H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.06A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.06T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.06J. Zucker · Missed · xG 0.06R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.06J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.05M. Samuelsson · Missed · xG 0.05A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.05O. Power · On goal · xG 0.05B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.04J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.03J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.03A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.03O. Power · Missed · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.03J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.02O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01C. Clifton · Missed · xG 0.01A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.01J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.01J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01M. Samuelsson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Clifton · On goal · xG 0.01B. Byram · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.00
BUF3 G · 3.5 xG · 50 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsBUF
3.94 G
All situations
3 G3.5
1.93 G
Even strength
2 G1.7
1.11 G
Power play
1 G1.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI42%58%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.92 – 3.42

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsBUF
36
Shots on goal
35
54%
Faceoffs
46%
1/4
Power play
1/4
15
Penalty minutes
15
18
Hits
18
23
Blocked shots
9
12
Giveaways
9
3
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6R. PulockD000010.06040—25:21
8N. DobsonD000+130.08120—24:55
28A. RomanovD000+100.05220—23:52
44J. PageauC101+230.391524421:28
24S. MayfieldD000000.00022—21:27
14B. HorvatC112+280.711006720:54
27A. LeeL022+151.19020—19:14
29B. NelsonC000+130.350008317:24
21K. PalmieriC101030.28200017:06
7M. TsyplakovR112+220.17812—15:01
10S. HolmstromR011-110.51120—13:53
53C. CizikasC000-220.020104413:47
32K. MacLeanC000-100.001023011:56
3A. PelechD000030.03022—10:41
18P. EngvallL000-110.04000—10:31
26O. WahlstromR000010.04105—10:18
2M. ReillyD000000.00000—07:24
20H. FaschingR000000.00000—06:41
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30I. Sorokin(W)35323.9143.47+0.4760:00

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).