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Predators at Penguins
NHL

Nashville Predators at Pittsburgh Penguins

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
2
Pittsburgh Penguins
▸4
FinalTV SN-PIT+, BSSO·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Nashville Predators 4-2. The Penguins scored first and never trailed. The Penguins led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Emil Bemstrom's goal at 2:42 of the third period, which took the Penguins' chances from 77% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 4.5 to 2.2; shots on goal were NSH 30, PIT 38. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 34 of 38 (.895); Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 28 of 30 (.933). Three stars: 1. Sidney Crosby (1 G, 1 A), 2. Erik Karlsson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Emil Bemstrom (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    S. Crosby1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    PIT
    E. Karlsson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    E. Bemstrom1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH0521609230
PITPIT22018110438

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    S. Crosby(42)PPG
    M. Bunting (34), B. Rust (28)
    wristxG 0.52win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    7:02
  2. PIT
    E. Karlsson(11)
    S. Crosby (50), M. Pettersson (25)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    13:50

2nd period

  1. NSH
    G. Nyquist(23)
    R. O'Reilly (43), R. McDonagh (28)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-2
    7:24
  2. PIT
    R. Smith(13)
    L. Eller (16), K. Letang (41)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-3
    8:21
  3. NSH
    F. Forsberg(48)
    R. McDonagh (29)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-3
    17:36

3rd period

  1. PIT
    E. Bemstrom(8)
    E. Karlsson (44), M. Pettersson (26)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-4
    2:42

Penalties

NSH 20 PIM·PIT 4 PIM

1st

  • 5:20NSHLuke Schenn · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  • 14:21NSHColton Sissons · Trippingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

2nd

  • 13:36NSHMark Jankowski · Roughingdrawn by Pierre-Olivier Joseph2 min
  • 13:36PITPierre-Olivier Joseph · Roughingdrawn by Mark Jankowski2 min
  • 18:06NSHJason Zucker · Hookingdrawn by Bryan Rust2 min

3rd

  • 6:31NSHJason Zucker · Abuse of officials10 min
  • 7:09PITReilly Smith · Hookingdrawn by Filip Forsberg2 min
  • 9:25NSHAnthony Beauvillier · Trippingdrawn by Sidney Crosby2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalNSH goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: Emil Bemstrom, 3rd 2:42 — PIT 77% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Crosby · Goal · xG 0.52D. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.48B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.48M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.18B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.17K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.17M. Bunting · On goal · xG 0.14B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.14E. Bemstrom · Goal · xG 0.13K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.13B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.12E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.11S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.08E. Malkin · Missed · xG 0.07R. Smith · Goal · xG 0.07K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.07R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.07E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.07S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.07E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.06D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.06R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.06B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.06E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.06E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.06E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.06B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.06R. Rakell · Missed · xG 0.05B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.04S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.04B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.04R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04D. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.04B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.04E. Malkin · On goal · xG 0.04J. Carter · Missed · xG 0.04E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.03S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.03R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.03S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.03E. Bemstrom · On goal · xG 0.03E. Karlsson · Goal · xG 0.03B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.02M. Bunting · Missed · xG 0.02S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.02P. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.02B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.02J. St. Ivany · Missed · xG 0.02E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.01P. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.01M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.01K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.01J. St. Ivany · Missed · xG 0.01K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.01
PIT4 G · 4.5 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsPIT
2.22 G
All situations
4 G4.5
2.22 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.00 G
Power play
1 G1.7

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH29%71%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.19 – 3.46

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsPIT
30
Shots on goal
38
40%
Faceoffs
60%
0/1
Power play
1/4
20
Penalty minutes
4
26
Hits
11
20
Blocked shots
18
4
Giveaways
5
4
Takeaways
7

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000040.06050—26:11
27R. McDonaghD022+110.02010—25:52
90R. O'ReillyC011010.020004822:54
3J. LauzonD000-220.06920—21:17
9F. ForsbergL101+130.37320—19:25
14G. NyquistR101020.440005018:55
57D. FabbroD000-100.01120—17:25
10C. SissonsC000+140.290022315:44
77L. EvangelistaR000-120.07000—15:31
24S. StastneyD000000.02010—13:47
82T. NovakC000-110.350103313:46
2L. SchennD000010.03242—13:28
21A. BeauvillierR000-140.23022—12:26
47M. McCarronC000-110.003005012:21
36C. SmithR000-110.11200—12:19
17M. JankowskiL000+110.0800210012:18
16J. ZuckerL000000.002012—10:01
44K. SherwoodL000-120.09400—09:44
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(L)38344.8953.56-0.4456:54

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).