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New York Islanders at New Jersey Devils

FinalTV MSGSN2, MSGSN·Prudential Center

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the New Jersey Devils 4-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brock Nelson's goal at 11:48 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 66% to 84%. Expected goals were close — NYI 2.0, NJD 1.8; shots on goal were NYI 19, NJD 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 23 of 24 (.958), 0.8 goals saved above expected; Jake Allen stopped 15 of 19 (.789), 2.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Kyle Palmieri (1 G, 1 A), 2. Brock Nelson (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jean-Gabriel Pageau (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    K. Palmieri1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    B. Nelson1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    J. Pageau1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI2514110419
NJDNJD081907124

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. NYI
    P. Engvall (17), A. Lee (16)
    snapxG 0.22win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-0
    12:22
  2. NYI
    M. Reilly (17), B. Nelson (34)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-0
    16:52

2nd period

  1. NJD
    wristxG 0.13win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    3:25
  2. NYI
    wristxG 0.32win prob +18 ptsVideo
    3-1
    11:48

3rd period

  1. NYI
    A. Lee (17), P. Engvall (18)
    wristxG 0.15win prob +6 ptsVideo
    4-1
    6:17

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·NJD 2 PIM

1st

  • 15:26NJDChris Tierney · Trippingdrawn by Kyle MacLean2 min

2nd

  • 3:58NYIBrock Nelson · Trippingdrawn by Ondrej Palat2 min
  • 15:57NYIMike Reilly · Holdingdrawn by Nico Hischier2 min

3rd

  • 2:52NYIRobert Bortuzzo · Trippingdrawn by Dawson Mercer2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NJD goalNYI goalFinal: NJD 0%

Biggest swing: Brock Nelson, 2nd 11:48 — NYI 66% → 84%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.18E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.18A. Holtz · On goal · xG 0.17T. Meier · Goal · xG 0.13N. Hischier · Missed · xG 0.11N. Hischier · Missed · xG 0.10E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.09T. Meier · Missed · xG 0.07T. Meier · Missed · xG 0.07N. Hischier · On goal · xG 0.07J. Siegenthaler · On goal · xG 0.07E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.06B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.05A. Holtz · On goal · xG 0.05N. Hischier · On goal · xG 0.05D. Mercer · On goal · xG 0.04J. Bratt · On goal · xG 0.04N. Foote · On goal · xG 0.04S. Nemec · Missed · xG 0.03T. Nosek · On goal · xG 0.03L. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.03N. Foote · On goal · xG 0.02S. Bowers · On goal · xG 0.02N. Foote · Missed · xG 0.02L. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.02T. Nosek · Missed · xG 0.02O. Palat · Missed · xG 0.02T. Meier · On goal · xG 0.01A. Holtz · Missed · xG 0.01B. Smith · On goal · xG 0.01S. Nemec · On goal · xG 0.01L. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.01N. Foote · On goal · xG 0.01
NJD1 G · 1.8 xG · 33 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsNJD
2.04 G
All situations
1 G1.8
1.73 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
0.41 G
Power play
0 G0.3

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 65 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI54%46%NJD

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.02 – 1.82

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsNJD
19
Shots on goal
24
48%
Faceoffs
52%
1/1
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
21
Hits
11
21
Blocked shots
10
2
Giveaways
4
8
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
28A. RomanovD000+110.02660—22:57
3A. PelechD000000.01220—22:46
6R. PulockD000-100.00110—22:46
14B. HorvatC000040.381106919:34
2M. ReillyD011+210.08002—18:47
21K. PalmieriC112030.38420017:37
13M. BarzalC000020.06000017:30
25S. AhoD000000.00100—16:40
44J. PageauC101+110.220005715:39
41R. BortuzzoD000+200.00132—15:31
53C. CizikasC000-110.06130015:14
29B. NelsonC112010.370123614:52
27A. LeeL022+120.02000—13:37
18P. EngvallL022+200.0001010013:36
32K. MacLeanC101+110.26010012:23
17M. MartinL000+110.11200—11:47
20H. FaschingR011+110.03000—11:28
15C. ClutterbuckR000000.03200—11:16
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(W)24231.9581.83+0.8360:00

Season series

NJD leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).