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Penguins at Maple Leafs
NHL

Pittsburgh Penguins at Toronto Maple Leafs

NHL scoreboard
Pittsburgh Penguins
2
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸3
Final/OTTV SN-PIT, SN1·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 3-2 in overtime, Jake McCabe scoring at 1:30. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jake McCabe's goal at 1:30 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 4.2 to 2.0; shots on goal were PIT 33, TOR 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 83% of the time. Alex Nedeljkovic stopped 20 of 23 (.870), 1.0 goals below expected; Ilya Samsonov stopped 31 of 33 (.939), 2.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Jake McCabe (1 G), 2. Auston Matthews (1 G, 1 A), 3. Rickard Rakell (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. McCabe1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    A. Matthews1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PIT
    R. Rakell1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
PITPIT11001011300233
TORTOR05191811323

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. PIT
    R. Rakell(14)
    E. Malkin (38)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-0
    18:06

2nd period

  1. TOR
    M. Knies(15)
    T. Brodie (24), M. Rielly (47)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-1
    5:36

3rd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(65)PPG
    J. Tavares (36)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-2
    1:22
  2. PIT
    D. O'Connor(14)
    P. Joseph (9), S. Crosby (46)
    wristxG 0.78win prob +35 ptsVideo
    2-2
    13:38

Overtime

  1. TOR
    J. McCabe(8)
    A. Matthews (37), M. Marner (53)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +49 ptsVideo
    2-3
    1:30

Penalties

PIT 4 PIM·TOR 10 PIM

1st

  • 9:47TORSimon Benoit · Trippingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 12:18TORIlya Lyubushkin · Boardingdrawn by Reilly Smith2 min

2nd

  • 8:17TORWilliam Nylander · Holdingdrawn by Sidney Crosby2 min
  • 9:56PITRickard Rakell · Slashingdrawn by Mitch Marner2 min
  • 11:15TORMark Giordano · Trippingdrawn by Jeff Carter2 min
  • 16:38TORJake McCabe · Interferencedrawn by Sidney Crosby2 min

3rd

  • 1:19PITErik Karlsson · Trippingdrawn by William Nylander2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TOR goalPIT goalFinal: TOR 100%

Biggest swing: Jake McCabe, OT 1:30 — TOR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. McCabe · Goal · xG 0.21M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.15A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.13M. Marner · On goal · xG 0.13M. Knies · Goal · xG 0.12T. Bertuzzi · On goal · xG 0.12W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.11J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.10W. Nylander · On goal · xG 0.09A. Matthews · Goal · xG 0.08R. Reaves · Missed · xG 0.06M. Marner · Missed · xG 0.06A. Matthews · On goal · xG 0.05M. Knies · Missed · xG 0.05I. Lyubushkin · On goal · xG 0.05A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04A. Matthews · Missed · xG 0.04P. Holmberg · On goal · xG 0.04M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.04J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.03J. McCabe · Missed · xG 0.03T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.03J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.03J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.02B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.02J. Tavares · Missed · xG 0.02R. Reaves · Missed · xG 0.02J. Tavares · On goal · xG 0.02M. Giordano · On goal · xG 0.01T. Bertuzzi · Missed · xG 0.01M. Domi · On goal · xG 0.01M. Giordano · Missed · xG 0.01J. McCabe · On goal · xG 0.00D. Kampf · On goal · xG 0.00B. McMann · On goal · xG 0.00
TOR3 G · 2.0 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PITvsTOR
4.22 G
All situations
3 G2.0
2.62 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
1.40 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 97 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PIT83%17%TOR

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.05 – 1.95

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PITvsTOR
33
Shots on goal
23
49%
Faceoffs
51%
0/5
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
10
31
Hits
30
20
Blocked shots
13
8
Giveaways
11
6
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Pittsburgh Penguins skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
65E. KarlssonD000050.26122—26:51
58K. LetangD000+100.07130—24:04
71E. MalkinC011+130.121005022:04
8M. BuntingL000+160.65300—21:16
87S. CrosbyC011+110.342104521:15
17B. RustR000+160.78010—21:14
28M. PetterssonD000+100.02220—20:38
20L. EllerC000-100.101203618:42
10D. O'ConnorL101051.15200—18:10
67R. RakellR101+140.54002—18:09
73P. JosephD011+110.02210—17:50
19R. SmithR000010.02200—15:55
77J. CarterC000-100.113108612:35
3J. St. IvanyD000-100.00410—12:16
5R. SheaD000-110.01330—11:17
48V. PuustinenR000000.00220—09:09
18J. PuljujarviR000-100.00200—05:34
52E. BemstromC000-100.00010005:28
Pittsburgh Penguins goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
39A. Nedeljkovic(O)23203.8701.96-1.0461:30

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).