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Flyers at Sabres
NHL

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

NHL scoreboard
Philadelphia Flyers
2
Buffalo Sabres
▸4
FinalTV NBCSP, MSG-B·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Philadelphia Flyers 4-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. The Sabres led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Noah Cates's goal at 9:07 of the second period, which took the Flyers' chances from 29% to 47%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.0 to 2.9; shots on goal were PHI 34, BUF 19. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Flyers win a replay of these chances 68% of the time. Ivan Fedotov stopped 15 of 19 (.789), 2.1 goals below expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 32 of 34 (.941), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen (32 saves, .941), 2. Jack Quinn (2 G), 3. Tage Thompson (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    U. Luukkonen32 saves, .941
  2. ★★
    BUF
    J. Quinn2 G
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    T. Thompson1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PHIPHI010113111234
BUFBUF142817419

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    T. Thompson(28)
    J. Peterka (22), A. Tuch (35)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +13 ptsVideo
    0-1
    10:01

2nd period

  1. PHI
    N. Cates(5)
    O. Tippett (23), C. York (20)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-1
    9:07
  2. BUF
    R. Dahlin(19)
    T. Thompson (26), A. Tuch (36)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +18 ptsVideo
    1-2
    14:51
  3. BUF
    J. Quinn(6)
    Z. Benson (17), O. Power (25)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-3
    19:54

3rd period

  1. PHI
    O. Tippett(28)
    T. Sanheim (33), S. Laughton (25)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +13 ptsVideo
    2-3
    9:19
  2. BUF
    J. Quinn(7)
    Z. Benson (18), D. Cozens (28)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +11 pts
    2-4
    13:59

Penalties

PHI 2 PIM·BUF 6 PIM

1st

  • 1:13BUFBowen Byram · Slashingdrawn by Owen Tippett2 min
  • 19:45BUFHenri Jokiharju · Roughingdrawn by Travis Konecny2 min

2nd

  • 13:55BUFJeff Skinner · Cross checkingdrawn by Travis Konecny2 min
  • 13:55PHITravis Konecny · Cross checkingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPHI goalFinal: BUF 100%

Biggest swing: Noah Cates, 2nd 9:07 — PHI 29% → 47%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
Z. Benson · Missed · xG 0.74J. Quinn · Missed · xG 0.44A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.39R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.33D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.27J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.25J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.20T. Thompson · Goal · xG 0.14J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.12T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.11J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.10J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.09B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.09J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.07J. Quinn · Goal · xG 0.07J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.06R. Dahlin · Goal · xG 0.06J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.06E. Robinson · On goal · xG 0.04P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.04A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.04R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.04T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.03R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.03P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.03B. Byram · Missed · xG 0.03J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.02D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.02J. Quinn · On goal · xG 0.02A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.02E. Robinson · Missed · xG 0.01D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF4 G · 4.0 xG · 35 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsBUF
2.92 G
All situations
4 G4.0
2.42 G
Even strength
4 G1.9
0.40 G
Power play
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI68%32%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.83 – 1.86

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsBUF
34
Shots on goal
19
69%
Faceoffs
31%
0/2
Power play
0/0
2
Penalty minutes
6
45
Hits
36
16
Blocked shots
16
9
Giveaways
2
9
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
9J. DrysdaleD000040.15220—23:41
8C. YorkD011-120.12200—23:40
11T. KonecnyR000-120.1740210022:56
48M. FrostC000-210.153007521:40
6T. SanheimD011-110.11100—21:09
71T. FoersterR000-150.43100—19:38
24N. SeelerD000010.04750—19:19
74O. TippettR112040.0741010019:12
21S. LaughtonC011010.124105018:20
10B. BrinkR000000.05400—15:12
77E. JohnsonD000-110.03220—13:16
25R. PoehlingC000-110.380108613:02
89C. AtkinsonR000010.18120—12:54
18M. StaalD000-100.00020—12:48
27N. CatesL101050.481006712:06
19G. HathawayR000010.0590010011:48
62O. LycksellR000040.32000—11:39
86J. FarabeeL000000.00000—09:58
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
82I. Fedotov(L)19154.7891.88-2.1255:42

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).