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Flyers at Sabres
NHL

Philadelphia Flyers at Buffalo Sabres

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Philadelphia Flyers
▸5
Buffalo Sabres
1
FinalTV NHLN, NBCSP·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Philadelphia Flyers beat the Buffalo Sabres 5-1. The Flyers scored first and never trailed. The Flyers led 4-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Louie Belpedio's goal at 1:31 of the first period, which took the Flyers' chances from 57% to 72%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 2.6 to 2.3; shots on goal were PHI 19, BUF 22. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 56% of the time. Samuel Ersson stopped 21 of 22 (.955), 1.6 goals saved above expected; Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 14 of 19 (.737), 2.7 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Bobby Brink (1 G, 1 A), 2. Joel Farabee (2 A), 3. Louie Belpedio (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PHI
    B. Brink1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    PHI
    J. Farabee2 A
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    L. Belpedio1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PHIPHI391614519
BUFBUF0401216122

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    S. Laughton(1)
    B. Brink (5), J. Farabee (3)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +11 ptsVideo
    1-0
    1:03
  2. PHI
    L. Belpedio(1)
    Unassisted
    snapxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-0
    1:31
  3. PHI
    T. Konecny(9)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.24win prob +12 ptsVideo
    3-0
    14:57

2nd period

  1. PHI
    G. Hathaway(2)
    R. Poehling (1), N. Deslauriers (2)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +4 ptsVideo
    4-0
    14:35

3rd period

  1. BUF
    H. Jokiharju(1)
    C. Mittelstadt (7), J. Peterka (2)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +2 ptsVideo
    4-1
    2:24
  2. PHI
    B. Brink(3)
    J. Farabee (4)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +1 ptsVideo
    5-1
    11:28

Penalties

PHI 11 PIM·BUF 11 PIM

1st

  • 7:11BUFAlex Tuch · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Foerster2 min
  • 11:59BUFPeyton Krebs · High stickingdrawn by Tyson Foerster2 min

2nd

  • 0:19PHITravis Sanheim · Hookingdrawn by JJ Peterka2 min

3rd

  • 7:15PHICam York · Trippingdrawn by JJ Peterka2 min
  • 18:04PHIGarnet Hathaway · Roughingdrawn by Dylan Cozens2 min
  • 18:04BUFDylan Cozens · Cross checkingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway2 min
  • 18:04BUFDylan Cozens · Fightingdrawn by Garnet Hathaway5 min
  • 18:04PHIGarnet Hathaway · Fightingdrawn by Dylan Cozens5 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
BUF goalPHI goalFinal: BUF 0%

Biggest swing: Louie Belpedio, 1st 1:31 — PHI 57% → 72%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.18A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.16T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.16A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.15J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.14D. Cozens · On goal · xG 0.14R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.14J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.13K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.11A. Tuch · Missed · xG 0.09C. Mittelstadt · On goal · xG 0.09J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.09L. Rousek · On goal · xG 0.08K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.08T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.08K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.08A. Tuch · On goal · xG 0.07J. Peterka · Missed · xG 0.07T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.06O. Power · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · Missed · xG 0.05J. Skinner · Missed · xG 0.05D. Cozens · Missed · xG 0.05J. Skinner · On goal · xG 0.05T. Thompson · On goal · xG 0.04O. Power · On goal · xG 0.04H. Jokiharju · Goal · xG 0.04P. Krebs · Missed · xG 0.03K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.03P. Krebs · On goal · xG 0.02K. Okposo · On goal · xG 0.01J. Greenway · On goal · xG 0.01J. Peterka · On goal · xG 0.01K. Okposo · Missed · xG 0.01O. Power · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · On goal · xG 0.01R. Dahlin · Missed · xG 0.01H. Jokiharju · On goal · xG 0.01
BUF1 G · 2.6 xG · 38 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsBUF
2.35 G
All situations
1 G2.6
2.15 G
Even strength
1 G2.0
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 69 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI44%56%BUF

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.26 – 2.62

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsBUF
19
Shots on goal
22
40%
Faceoffs
60%
0/2
Power play
0/2
11
Penalty minutes
11
24
Hits
21
13
Blocked shots
21
4
Giveaways
9
12
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
6T. SanheimD000010.02102—24:04
8C. YorkD000000.00012—22:29
26S. WalkerD000+210.09320—19:39
24N. SeelerD000+200.02210—18:12
5E. ZamulaD000+200.00100—17:43
27N. CatesL000000.001104517:39
11T. KonecnyR101+220.60000—17:26
74O. TippettR000010.22000—16:52
21S. LaughtonC101+220.071001116:49
89C. AtkinsonR000020.13020—16:45
71T. FoersterR000+220.16100—16:42
10B. BrinkR112+210.20000—15:41
48M. FrostC000+210.101105015:24
37L. BelpedioD101+210.06420—15:08
86J. FarabeeL022+210.00020—13:44
19G. HathawayR101020.1430710010:49
44N. DeslauriersL011000.30500—10:40
25R. PoehlingC011020.1511010010:14
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
33S. Ersson(W)22211.9552.63+1.6360:00

Season series

BUF leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).