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Philadelphia Flyers at Pittsburgh Penguins

FinalTV TNT, MAX·PPG Paints Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Pittsburgh Penguins beat the Philadelphia Flyers 7-6. The lead changed hands 3 times. It was tied 4-4 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Drew O'Connor's goal at 6:41 of the third period, which took the Penguins' chances from 52% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Penguins, 2.9 to 1.7; shots on goal were PHI 21, PIT 32. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Penguins win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Cal Petersen stopped 25 of 32 (.781), 4.5 goals below expected; Tristan Jarry stopped 15 of 21 (.714), 4.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Sidney Crosby (1 G, 3 A), 2. Bryan Rust (2 G, 1 A), 3. Tyson Foerster (2 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    PIT
    S. Crosby1 G, 3 A
  2. ★★
    PIT
    B. Rust2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    PHI
    T. Foerster2 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
PHIPHI173925621
PITPIT211210311732

Scoring

13 goals

1st period

  1. PHI
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    2:11
  2. PIT
    B. Rust (18), R. Rakell (17)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-1
    9:38
  3. PIT
    tip-inxG 0.09win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    17:15

2nd period

  1. PHI
    wristxG 0.13win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-2
    0:55
  2. PIT
    B. Rust(18)PPG
    snapxG 0.07win prob +16 ptsVideo
    2-3
    11:15
  3. PIT
    R. Smith (14), K. Letang (29)
    wristxG 0.10win prob +14 ptsVideo
    2-4
    13:38
  4. PHI
    slapxG 0.05win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-4
    16:33
  5. PHI
    N. Cates (8), C. York (13)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +22 ptsVideo
    4-4
    17:36

3rd period

  1. PIT
    wristxG 0.06win prob +28 ptsVideo
    4-5
    6:41
  2. PIT
    wristxG 0.03win prob +14 ptsVideo
    4-6
    8:38
  3. PHI
    snapxG 0.07win prob +13 ptsVideo
    5-6
    10:10
  4. PIT
    Unassisted
    slapxG 0.03win prob +9 ptsVideo
    5-7
    15:13
  5. PHI
    wristxG 0.08win prob +3 ptsVideo
    6-7
    17:57

Penalties

PHI 8 PIM·PIT 10 PIM

2nd

  • 1:52PITLars Eller · High sticking double minordrawn by Morgan Frost4 min
  • 4:14PHIMorgan Frost · Slashingdrawn by Reilly Smith2 min
  • 10:12PHITravis Sanheim · Trippingdrawn by Rickard Rakell2 min
  • 11:54PHINicolas Deslauriers · Roughingdrawn by Jansen Harkins2 min
  • 16:48PHITravis Sanheim · Interferencedrawn by Sidney Crosby2 min

3rd

  • 3:26PITEvgeni Malkin · Hookingdrawn by Ryan Poehling2 min
  • 10:32PITRickard Rakell · Trippingdrawn by Cam York2 min
  • 17:30PITSidney Crosby · Trippingdrawn by Scott Laughton2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
PIT goalPHI goalFinal: PIT 100%

Biggest swing: Drew O'Connor, 3rd 6:41 — PIT 52% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Smith · Missed · xG 0.43S. Crosby · Goal · xG 0.24R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.15S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.15D. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.14D. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.12K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.12E. Bemstrom · Goal · xG 0.10B. Rust · Goal · xG 0.09R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.09B. Rust · Missed · xG 0.09B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.08B. Rust · Goal · xG 0.07D. O'Connor · Missed · xG 0.07L. Eller · On goal · xG 0.07B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.06D. O'Connor · Goal · xG 0.06D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.06E. Bemstrom · On goal · xG 0.05J. Carter · Missed · xG 0.05B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.05E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.04K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.04E. Bemstrom · On goal · xG 0.04D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.04S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.04K. Letang · Goal · xG 0.03L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.03R. Rakell · Goal · xG 0.03K. Letang · On goal · xG 0.02B. Rust · On goal · xG 0.02R. Smith · Missed · xG 0.02J. Carter · Missed · xG 0.02S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.02L. Eller · Missed · xG 0.02J. Carter · On goal · xG 0.02R. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02M. Pettersson · On goal · xG 0.01D. O'Connor · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ruhwedel · On goal · xG 0.01S. Crosby · Missed · xG 0.01S. Crosby · On goal · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · Missed · xG 0.01V. Puustinen · On goal · xG 0.01R. Rakell · On goal · xG 0.01K. Letang · Missed · xG 0.01E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.00
PIT7 G · 2.9 xG · 47 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

PHIvsPIT
1.76 G
All situations
7 G2.9
1.04 G
Even strength
5 G1.8
0.41 G
Power play
2 G0.4
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 85 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
PHI36%64%PIT

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.69 – 2.40

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

PHIvsPIT
21
Shots on goal
32
52%
Faceoffs
48%
1/5
Power play
2/4
8
Penalty minutes
10
24
Hits
23
24
Blocked shots
18
3
Giveaways
8
4
Takeaways
9

Box score

every player line
Philadelphia Flyers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8C. YorkD112+210.17230—23:55
26S. WalkerD011-130.18120—23:14
6T. SanheimD112+320.17144—22:56
21S. LaughtonC213+440.420304420:50
71T. FoersterR213030.29200—19:25
74O. TippettR011-110.071206719:02
24N. SeelerD000-220.06320—18:53
25R. PoehlingC000-100.010205017:27
27N. CatesL011000.051105016:49
18M. StaalD000-100.00020—16:18
14S. CouturierC022-220.041007115:03
19G. HathawayR000-120.23510—14:43
86J. FarabeeL000-200.00100—14:12
62O. LycksellR022+100.00020—12:44
48M. FrostC000-100.001023812:12
9J. DrysdaleD000-100.00100—10:39
89C. AtkinsonR000010.01200—10:08
44N. DeslauriersL000+200.00202—07:47
Philadelphia Flyers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40C. Petersen(L)32257.7812.45-4.5556:56

Season series

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).