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Oilers at Stars
NHL

Edmonton Oilers at Dallas Stars

NHL scoreboard
Edmonton Oilers
▸4
Dallas Stars
3
Final/OTTV ABC, ESPN+·American Airlines Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Edmonton Oilers beat the Dallas Stars 4-3 in overtime, Evan Bouchard scoring at 0:30. The lead changed hands 2 times. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Evan Bouchard's goal at 0:30 of overtime, which took the Oilers' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals were close — EDM 2.5, DAL 2.4; shots on goal were EDM 24, DAL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 53% of the time. Calvin Pickard stopped 24 of 27 (.889), 0.6 goals below expected; Jake Oettinger stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Evan Bouchard (2 G), 2. Matt Duchene (1 G, 2 A), 3. Mason Marchment (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    E. Bouchard2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    M. Duchene1 G, 2 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    M. Marchment1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
EDMEDM073100611424
DALDAL063160500327

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. DAL
    M. Marchment(18)PPG
    W. Johnston (21), M. Duchene (32)
    snapxG 0.40win prob +15 ptsVideo
    0-1
    1:08
  2. EDM
    E. Bouchard(13)
    M. Ekholm (16), C. Perry (7)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +16 ptsVideo
    1-1
    2:03
  3. DAL
    T. Harley(14)
    M. Duchene (33), M. Heiskanen (27)
    wristxG 0.08win prob +17 ptsVideo
    1-2
    4:47
  4. EDM
    C. Perry(6)
    C. McDavid (60), L. Draisaitl (38)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-2
    6:55
  5. EDM
    D. Ryan(5)SHG
    R. Nugent-Hopkins (34)
    snapxG 0.16win prob +25 ptsVideo
    3-2
    18:42
  6. DAL
    M. Duchene(22)PPG
    M. Marchment (28), T. Harley (19)
    backhandxG 0.36win prob +20 ptsVideo
    3-3
    19:02

Overtime

  1. EDM
    E. Bouchard(14)PPG
    L. Draisaitl (39)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +51 ptsVideo
    4-3
    0:30

Penalties

EDM 6 PIM·DAL 8 PIM

1st

  • 9:00DALRoope Hintz · High stickingdrawn by Connor McDavid2 min
  • 19:22EDMBrett Kulak · High stickingdrawn by Joe Pavelski2 min

2nd

  • 12:17DALserved by M. Marchment · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 12:34DALRyan Suter · Trippingdrawn by Zach Hyman2 min
  • 17:58EDMCorey Perry · Holdingdrawn by Craig Smith2 min
  • 20:00EDMLeon Draisaitl · Holdingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min

OT

  • 0:23DALWyatt Johnston · Hookingdrawn by Leon Draisaitl2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DAL goalEDM goalFinal: DAL 0%

Biggest swing: Evan Bouchard, OT 0:30 — EDM 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Marchment · Goal · xG 0.40M. Duchene · Goal · xG 0.36J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.17J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.14W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.12R. Hintz · Missed · xG 0.09M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.08T. Harley · Goal · xG 0.08T. Harley · Missed · xG 0.08J. Pavelski · On goal · xG 0.08M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.08T. Seguin · Missed · xG 0.06W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.06M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.06C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.06J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.06M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.06M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.05W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.05C. Smith · On goal · xG 0.04C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.03M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.03T. Seguin · On goal · xG 0.02W. Johnston · On goal · xG 0.02R. Faksa · Missed · xG 0.02T. Dellandrea · On goal · xG 0.02T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.02J. Robertson · On goal · xG 0.01J. Pavelski · Missed · xG 0.01R. Suter · On goal · xG 0.01M. Heiskanen · On goal · xG 0.01T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.01M. Marchment · On goal · xG 0.01J. Hakanpää · Missed · xG 0.00T. Harley · On goal · xG 0.00M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.00
DAL3 G · 2.4 xG · 36 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

EDMvsDAL
2.54 G
All situations
3 G2.4
1.92 G
Even strength
1 G1.0
0.51 G
Power play
2 G1.4
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 73 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
EDM53%47%DAL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.51 – 2.36

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

EDMvsDAL
24
Shots on goal
27
51%
Faceoffs
49%
1/4
Power play
2/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
32
Hits
25
18
Blocked shots
14
5
Giveaways
11
9
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Edmonton Oilers skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
2E. BouchardD202+250.24110—23:32
97C. McDavidC011+230.651005022:48
29L. DraisaitlC022+200.203025321:05
25D. NurseD000010.00230—21:00
14M. EkholmD011+310.12210—19:59
93R. Nugent-HopkinsC011+110.030004419:55
5C. CeciD000+120.04230—19:33
91E. KaneL000010.1860010018:48
18Z. HymanL000010.42310—18:03
73V. DesharnaisD000-100.00450—17:21
90C. PerryR112+230.29202—16:39
27B. KulakD000-120.02112—15:53
37W. FoegeleL000030.18010—13:02
71R. McLeodC000000.001006012:03
13M. JanmarkC000000.00310011:29
10D. RyanC101010.160007010:15
28C. BrownR000-100.020103309:04
89S. GagnerC000-100.00100006:38
Edmonton Oilers goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30C. Pickard(W)27243.8892.43-0.5760:10

Season series

DAL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).