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Stars at Oilers
NHL

Dallas Stars at Edmonton Oilers

NHL scoreboard
Dallas Stars
▸4
Edmonton Oilers
3
FinalTV BSSW, SNW·Rogers Place

Recap

written from the game data

The Dallas Stars beat the Edmonton Oilers 4-3. The Stars scored first and never trailed. The Stars led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Joe Pavelski's goal at 3:25 of the second period, which took the Stars' chances from 47% to 64%. Expected goals favored the Oilers, 6.5 to 2.5; shots on goal were DAL 27, EDM 49. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Oilers win a replay of these chances 92% of the time. Scott Wedgewood stopped 46 of 49 (.939), 3.5 goals saved above expected; Stuart Skinner stopped 23 of 27 (.852), 1.5 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Sam Gagner (2 G), 2. Roope Hintz (2 G, 1 A), 3. Joe Pavelski (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    EDM
    S. Gagner2 G
  2. ★★
    DAL
    R. Hintz2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    DAL
    J. Pavelski1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DALDAL192919427
EDMEDM113011225349

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. DAL
    M. Duchene(2)
    M. Marchment (2), E. Lindell (2)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +13 ptsVideo
    1-0
    8:08
  2. EDM
    E. Kane(3)
    R. Nugent-Hopkins (6)
    snapxG 0.19win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    17:00

2nd period

  1. DAL
    J. Pavelski(4)
    R. Hintz (6), M. Heiskanen (4)
    slapxG 0.13win prob +17 ptsVideo
    2-1
    3:25
  2. DAL
    R. Hintz(4)PPG
    J. Pavelski (5), J. Benn (6)
    tip-inxG 0.22win prob +13 ptsVideo
    3-1
    16:06

3rd period

  1. DAL
    R. Hintz(5)
    J. Pavelski (6), J. Robertson (6)
    slapxG 0.25win prob +7 ptsVideo
    4-1
    2:37
  2. EDM
    S. Gagner(1)
    C. Ceci (2), B. Kulak (1)
    pokexG 0.55win prob +4 ptsVideo
    4-2
    10:35
  3. EDM
    S. Gagner(2)
    E. Kane (5)
    backhandxG 0.27win prob +11 ptsVideo
    4-3
    13:36

Penalties

DAL 8 PIM·EDM 4 PIM

2nd

  • 6:17DALCraig Smith · Trippingdrawn by Evander Kane2 min
  • 13:16DALMason Marchment · Slashingdrawn by Derek Ryan2 min
  • 15:45EDMEvander Kane · Hookingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min
  • 17:54DALserved by M. Marchment · Too many men on the ice2 min

3rd

  • 6:31EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins · Holdingdrawn by Wyatt Johnston2 min
  • 8:05DALMason Marchment · Hookingdrawn by Vincent Desharnais2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
EDM goalDAL goalFinal: EDM 0%

Biggest swing: Joe Pavelski, 2nd 3:25 — DAL 47% → 64%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
S. Gagner · Goal · xG 0.55R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.52C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.37E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.32L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.30S. Gagner · Goal · xG 0.27R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.22R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.20E. Kane · Goal · xG 0.19D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.18E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.18E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.16D. Holloway · On goal · xG 0.16L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.15R. McLeod · On goal · xG 0.15E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.14C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.12L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.11B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.11C. McDavid · Missed · xG 0.10E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.10L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.09E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.09C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.08E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.08E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.08L. Draisaitl · Missed · xG 0.07E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.07E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.07E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.07E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.06C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.06E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.06E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.06W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.06L. Draisaitl · On goal · xG 0.05D. Nurse · Missed · xG 0.05R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.05C. Brown · On goal · xG 0.05S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.04E. Kane · Missed · xG 0.04S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.04E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.04E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.04M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.04E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.04S. Gagner · On goal · xG 0.04Z. Hyman · On goal · xG 0.03E. Bouchard · Missed · xG 0.03W. Foegele · On goal · xG 0.03R. Nugent-Hopkins · On goal · xG 0.03D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.02P. Broberg · On goal · xG 0.02E. Bouchard · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.02C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.02V. Desharnais · Missed · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.01R. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.01D. Holloway · Missed · xG 0.01E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01D. Nurse · On goal · xG 0.01C. McDavid · On goal · xG 0.01E. Kane · On goal · xG 0.01D. Holloway · Missed · xG 0.01B. Kulak · On goal · xG 0.01V. Desharnais · On goal · xG 0.00C. Ceci · On goal · xG 0.00
EDM3 G · 6.5 xG · 72 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DALvsEDM
2.54 G
All situations
3 G6.5
2.03 G
Even strength
3 G4.6
0.41 G
Power play
0 G1.6
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DAL8%92%EDM

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.45 – 6.18

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DALvsEDM
27
Shots on goal
49
40%
Faceoffs
60%
1/2
Power play
0/4
8
Penalty minutes
4
21
Hits
24
25
Blocked shots
13
24
Giveaways
12
11
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Dallas Stars skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
4M. HeiskanenD011+100.00250—27:13
20R. SuterD000+110.00420—24:39
2J. HakanpääD000010.05120—20:15
23E. LindellD011010.02170—19:07
21J. RobertsonL011020.05000—18:55
16J. PavelskiC123030.361006018:08
24R. HintzC213+130.530204217:17
14J. BennL011030.182004017:12
95M. DucheneC101020.363301716:32
91T. SeguinC000020.171003016:20
53W. JohnstonC000030.320002514:55
55T. HarleyD000-210.01030—14:15
27M. MarchmentL011010.05204—12:46
5N. LundkvistD000030.08110—12:46
18S. SteelC000000.291003311:39
10T. DellandreaC000-100.002004411:20
63E. DadonovL000010.02000—11:13
15C. SmithC000000.00002007:35
Dallas Stars goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
41S. Wedgewood(W)49463.9396.49+3.4959:56

Season series

DAL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).