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Sabres at Sharks
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at San Jose Sharks

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
San Jose Sharks
2
FinalTV MSG-B, NBCSCA·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the San Jose Sharks 5-2. The Sabres came back from two goals down. The Sabres led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was JJ Peterka's goal at 4:33 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 74% to 92%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 3.9 to 1.8; shots on goal were BUF 36, SJS 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 76% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 24 of 26 (.923); Kaapo Kahkonen stopped 31 of 35 (.886), 0.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. JJ Peterka (2 G), 2. Casey Mittelstadt (2 A), 3. Jordan Greenway (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    J. Peterka2 G
  2. ★★
    BUF
    C. Mittelstadt2 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Greenway1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF210113213536
SJSSJS2120707226

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. SJS
    M. Vlasic(3)
    W. Eklund (12), T. Emberson (7)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +12 ptsVideo
    0-1
    8:06
  2. SJS
    J. Rutta(2)
    W. Eklund (13)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +14 ptsVideo
    0-2
    10:42
  3. BUF
    J. Peterka(17)
    D. Cozens (18), O. Power (16)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-2
    14:14
  4. BUF
    J. Greenway(6)
    A. Tuch (20), C. Mittelstadt (29)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-2
    18:01

2nd period

  1. BUF
    A. Tuch(14)
    C. Mittelstadt (30)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 ptsVideo
    3-2
    1:36

3rd period

  1. BUF
    J. Peterka(18)
    D. Cozens (19), J. Quinn (7)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-2
    4:33
  2. BUF
    D. Cozens(10)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.52win prob +1 ptsVideo
    5-2
    15:44

Penalties

BUF 10 PIM·SJS 10 PIM

1st

  • 3:33SJSMike Hoffman · Hookingdrawn by Tage Thompson2 min

2nd

  • 7:13SJSLogan Couture · Trippingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 16:43BUFHenri Jokiharju · Interferencedrawn by Nico Sturm2 min

3rd

  • 9:54BUFKyle Okposo · Interferencedrawn by Nikita Okhotiuk2 min
  • 9:54SJSKyle Burroughs · Roughingdrawn by Kyle Okposo2 min
  • 9:54BUFKyle Okposo · Roughingdrawn by Kyle Burroughs2 min
  • 9:54SJSLuke Kunin · Roughingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 9:54BUFJeff Skinner · Roughingdrawn by Luke Kunin2 min
  • 14:56BUFConnor Clifton · Interferencedrawn by William Eklund2 min
  • 14:56SJSWilliam Eklund · Embellishment2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
SJS goalBUF goalFinal: SJS 0%

Biggest swing: JJ Peterka, 3rd 4:33 — BUF 74% → 92%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.23M. Vlasic · On goal · xG 0.12T. Hertl · On goal · xG 0.12M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.12M. Vlasic · On goal · xG 0.10M. Hoffman · Missed · xG 0.09M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.08W. Eklund · Missed · xG 0.07L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.06L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.06F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.06N. Okhotiuk · On goal · xG 0.06J. Rutta · On goal · xG 0.05N. Okhotiuk · Missed · xG 0.05A. Barabanov · Missed · xG 0.04F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.04A. Barabanov · On goal · xG 0.04F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.04L. Couture · On goal · xG 0.04J. Bailey · Missed · xG 0.03R. Carpenter · Missed · xG 0.03F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.03M. Vlasic · Goal · xG 0.02N. Sturm · Missed · xG 0.02W. Eklund · Missed · xG 0.02M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.02L. Kunin · On goal · xG 0.02F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.02J. Bailey · Missed · xG 0.02N. Okhotiuk · Missed · xG 0.02J. Rutta · Goal · xG 0.02T. Emberson · Missed · xG 0.01W. Eklund · Missed · xG 0.01M. Hoffman · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mukhamadullin · Missed · xG 0.01S. Mukhamadullin · On goal · xG 0.01N. Okhotiuk · Missed · xG 0.01S. Mukhamadullin · On goal · xG 0.01K. Burroughs · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mukhamadullin · Missed · xG 0.01M. Vlasic · On goal · xG 0.01L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.01M. Vlasic · Missed · xG 0.01L. Kunin · Missed · xG 0.01M. Vlasic · On goal · xG 0.00S. Mukhamadullin · On goal · xG 0.00
SJS2 G · 1.8 xG · 46 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsSJS
3.94 G
All situations
2 G1.8
3.04 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.10 G
Power play
0 G0.1
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 99 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF76%24%SJS

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.36 – 1.84

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsSJS
36
Shots on goal
26
45%
Faceoffs
55%
0/2
Power play
0/2
10
Penalty minutes
10
14
Hits
14
17
Blocked shots
12
6
Giveaways
5
6
Takeaways
12

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD000+130.08110—24:48
25O. PowerD011+330.10020—24:17
10H. JokiharjuD000+340.06042—19:55
75C. CliftonD000+140.07322—18:01
89A. TuchR112+230.470206717:59
33R. JohnsonD000000.06030—16:28
72T. ThompsonC000020.251002015:51
53J. SkinnerL000000.000025015:49
12J. GreenwayL101+310.47300—15:37
37C. MittelstadtC022+210.090005315:32
9Z. BensonL000010.2000010015:28
24D. CozensC123+130.780005214:14
77J. PeterkaR202050.65010—14:14
78J. BrysonD000-200.00020—14:12
21K. OkposoR000020.31104—13:09
19P. KrebsC000000.000004212:58
50E. RobinsonL000020.25300—12:57
22J. QuinnR011020.09200—12:31
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(W)26242.9231.84-0.1660:00

Season series

BUF leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).