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Islanders at Senators
NHL

New York Islanders at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
New York Islanders
▸5
Ottawa Senators
3
FinalTV MSGSN, TSN5·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Ottawa Senators 5-3. The Senators scored first; the Islanders answered. The Islanders led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Oliver Wahlstrom's goal at 6:22 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 47% to 64%. Expected goals were close — NYI 2.4, OTT 2.3; shots on goal were NYI 26, OTT 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Semyon Varlamov stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 0.7 goals below expected; Anton Forsberg stopped 21 of 26 (.808), 2.6 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alexander Romanov (2 A), 2. Drake Batherson (2 G), 3. Oliver Wahlstrom (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    A. Romanov2 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    D. Batherson2 G
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    O. Wahlstrom1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NYINYI1123915526
OTTOTT110211010331

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    D. Batherson(5)PPG
    B. Tkachuk (5), J. Norris (5)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +10 ptsVideo
    0-1
    10:25
  2. NYI
    K. Palmieri(5)
    B. Nelson (5), A. Romanov (1)
    wristxG 0.50win prob +14 ptsVideo
    1-1
    13:55

2nd period

  1. NYI
    O. Wahlstrom(2)
    A. Romanov (2), J. Pageau (6)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +18 ptsVideo
    2-1
    6:22
  2. NYI
    M. Barzal(5)PPG
    K. Palmieri (7), B. Nelson (6)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    3-1
    9:51
  3. NYI
    A. Lee(4)
    O. Wahlstrom (3)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +10 ptsVideo
    4-1
    9:57
  4. OTT
    T. Stützle(5)
    M. Joseph (10)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +9 ptsVideo
    4-2
    10:56
  5. OTT
    D. Batherson(6)
    T. Stützle (17), M. Joseph (11)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +17 ptsVideo
    4-3
    11:43

3rd period

  1. NYI
    S. Holmstrom(5)
    N. Dobson (11), S. Mayfield (2)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +17 ptsVideo
    5-3
    5:18

Penalties

NYI 6 PIM·OTT 2 PIM

1st

  • 9:37NYIRyan Pulock · Trippingdrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min
  • 15:50NYIBo Horvat · Hookingdrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min

2nd

  • 8:22OTTParker Kelly · High stickingdrawn by Brock Nelson2 min

3rd

  • 13:47NYIMathew Barzal · Slashingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalNYI goalFinal: OTT 0%

Biggest swing: Oliver Wahlstrom, 2nd 6:22 — NYI 47% → 64%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
T. Stützle · Goal · xG 0.14B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.13R. Chartier · On goal · xG 0.13D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.13B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.12D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.11D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.11D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.10B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.08D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.08B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.08T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.07R. Jarventie · On goal · xG 0.06V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.06T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.06J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.06R. Chartier · On goal · xG 0.05B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.05J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.05T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.04B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.04J. Norris · Missed · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.03T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.03A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.02B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.02C. Giroux · Missed · xG 0.02J. Norris · On goal · xG 0.02D. Kubalik · Missed · xG 0.02J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.01D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.01T. Hamonic · Missed · xG 0.01B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.01E. Brannstrom · Missed · xG 0.01D. Kubalik · Missed · xG 0.01V. Tarasenko · On goal · xG 0.01V. Tarasenko · Missed · xG 0.01J. Bernard-Docker · Missed · xG 0.01J. Chychrun · Missed · xG 0.01C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.00D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.00T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT3 G · 2.3 xG · 49 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NYIvsOTT
2.45 G
All situations
3 G2.3
2.24 G
Even strength
2 G1.5
0.21 G
Power play
1 G0.8

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NYI50%50%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.30 – 2.31

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NYIvsOTT
26
Shots on goal
31
59%
Faceoffs
41%
1/1
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
2
31
Hits
28
31
Blocked shots
17
12
Giveaways
9
9
Takeaways
2

Box score

every player line
New York Islanders skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
8N. DobsonD011000.00250—31:05
28A. RomanovD022+220.04440—30:02
6R. PulockD000+200.00362—28:47
24S. MayfieldD011030.12240—26:19
15C. ClutterbuckR000-110.024105018:06
14B. HorvatC000+120.061027117:49
53C. CizikasC000-100.000305717:47
29B. NelsonC022030.312103316:38
13M. BarzalC101+130.2010210015:28
21K. PalmieriC112030.70100015:16
27A. LeeL101+240.19110—13:39
44J. PageauC011+220.433005513:32
10S. HolmstromR101+110.26100—13:26
20H. FaschingR000-210.01630—12:48
18P. EngvallL000+100.0000010012:03
26O. WahlstromR112+210.09030—10:04
25S. AhoD000000.00000—01:28
3A. PelechD000000.00000—00:55
New York Islanders goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40S. Varlamov(W)31283.9032.32-0.6860:00

Season series

NYI leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).