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Sabres at Blackhawks
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Chicago Blackhawks

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸3
Chicago Blackhawks
2
FinalTV NBCSCH, MSG-B·United Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Chicago Blackhawks 3-2. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Erik Johnson's goal at 10:36 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 48% to 81%. Expected goals favored the Blackhawks, 2.0 to 1.6; shots on goal were BUF 20, CHI 26. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Blackhawks win a replay of these chances 57% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 24 of 26 (.923); Petr Mrazek stopped 17 of 20 (.850), 1.4 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Rasmus Dahlin (1 G, 2 A), 2. Erik Johnson (1 G), 3. Philipp Kurashev (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    R. Dahlin1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    BUF
    E. Johnson1 G
  3. ★★★
    CHI
    P. Kurashev1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF181616320
CHICHI0821206226

Scoring

5 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    R. Dahlin(4)
    Z. Benson (4), J. Peterka (6)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +12 ptsVideo
    1-0
    4:53

2nd period

  1. CHI
    T. Raddysh(3)
    P. Kurashev (6), N. Foligno (7)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +15 ptsVideo
    1-1
    3:28
  2. BUF
    J. Skinner(8)PPG
    R. Dahlin (10), J. Peterka (7)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +15 ptsVideo
    2-1
    10:55
  3. CHI
    P. Kurashev(4)
    C. Bedard (6), L. Reichel (3)
    snapxG 0.29win prob +22 ptsVideo
    2-2
    17:28

3rd period

  1. BUF
    E. Johnson(2)
    C. Mittelstadt (11), R. Dahlin (11)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +33 ptsVideo
    3-2
    10:36

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·CHI 6 PIM

2nd

  • 1:26BUFCasey Mittelstadt · Trippingdrawn by Kevin Korchinski2 min
  • 4:19BUFOwen Power · High stickingdrawn by Reese Johnson2 min
  • 9:38CHIKevin Korchinski · Trippingdrawn by Zach Benson2 min
  • 13:26CHIKevin Korchinski · Holding the stickdrawn by JJ Peterka2 min

3rd

  • 2:33BUFMattias Samuelsson · Trippingdrawn by Lukas Reichel2 min
  • 11:31CHITyler Johnson · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
CHI goalBUF goalFinal: CHI 0%

Biggest swing: Erik Johnson, 3rd 10:36 — BUF 48% → 81%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
P. Kurashev · Goal · xG 0.29C. Bedard · On goal · xG 0.15R. Donato · On goal · xG 0.14T. Raddysh · Missed · xG 0.12L. Reichel · Missed · xG 0.11T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.11C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.10T. Raddysh · Goal · xG 0.07J. Dickinson · Missed · xG 0.06T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.06R. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.06S. Jones · Missed · xG 0.06T. Johnson · Missed · xG 0.06J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.05T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.05L. Reichel · On goal · xG 0.05C. Bedard · On goal · xG 0.04C. Bedard · Missed · xG 0.04M. Entwistle · On goal · xG 0.03K. Korchinski · On goal · xG 0.03T. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.03L. Reichel · Missed · xG 0.03T. Hall · Missed · xG 0.02I. Phillips · On goal · xG 0.02I. Phillips · On goal · xG 0.02S. Jones · On goal · xG 0.02I. Phillips · Missed · xG 0.02C. Murphy · On goal · xG 0.01W. Kaiser · Missed · xG 0.01C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.01P. Kurashev · On goal · xG 0.01C. Murphy · On goal · xG 0.01C. Murphy · On goal · xG 0.01N. Foligno · On goal · xG 0.01A. Vlasic · Missed · xG 0.01A. Vlasic · On goal · xG 0.01C. Murphy · On goal · xG 0.01J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.01C. Murphy · Missed · xG 0.01J. Dickinson · On goal · xG 0.01R. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.01
CHI2 G · 2.0 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsCHI
1.63 G
All situations
2 G2.0
1.32 G
Even strength
2 G1.6
0.21 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF43%57%CHI

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.63 – 1.96

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsCHI
20
Shots on goal
26
55%
Faceoffs
45%
1/3
Power play
0/3
6
Penalty minutes
6
17
Hits
14
13
Blocked shots
9
13
Giveaways
11
9
Takeaways
17

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
26R. DahlinD123050.13400—28:59
23M. SamuelssonD000-100.01322—22:12
89A. TuchR000+120.10100—21:18
12J. GreenwayL000-120.121205020:24
37C. MittelstadtC011000.001023819:29
24D. CozensC000030.251105618:56
25O. PowerD000020.10112—17:13
71V. OlofssonL000020.19000—15:17
53J. SkinnerL101010.1700010015:00
77J. PeterkaR022000.25000—14:35
21K. OkposoR000000.05200—14:29
6E. JohnsonD101010.06020—13:37
19P. KrebsC000000.001105613:32
28Z. GirgensonsC000-110.051008613:23
33R. JohnsonD000000.00010—12:20
9Z. BensonL011+110.15010—12:12
10H. JokiharjuD000000.00010—11:14
75C. CliftonD000+100.00110—09:50
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(W)26242.9231.99-0.0160:00

Season series

BUF leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).