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Maple Leafs at Panthers
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Florida Panthers

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸2
Florida Panthers
1
Final/OTTV SN, TVAS·FLA Live Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Florida Panthers 2-1 in overtime, John Tavares scoring at 4:38. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was John Tavares's goal at 4:38 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Panthers, 3.5 to 2.6; shots on goal were TOR 25, FLA 46. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Panthers win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 45 of 46 (.978), 2.5 goals saved above expected; Alex Lyon stopped 23 of 25 (.920), 0.6 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (1 G), 2. Ilya Samsonov (45 saves, .978), 3. Brandon Montour (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    J. Tavares1 G
  2. ★★
    TOR
    I. Samsonov45 saves, .978
  3. ★★★
    FLA
    B. Montour1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
TORTOR08170713225
FLAFLA01501611104146

Scoring

3 goals

2nd period

  1. TOR
    A. Matthews(40)
    M. Marner (69), T. Brodie (12)
    wristxG 0.13win prob +23 pts
    1-0
    17:47

3rd period

  1. FLA
    B. Montour(16)
    C. Verhaeghe (31), M. Staal (12)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +31 pts
    1-1
    9:36

Overtime

  1. TOR
    J. Tavares(36)
    M. Rielly (37)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +51 pts
    2-1
    4:38

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·FLA 2 PIM

1st

  • 1:16FLABrandon Montour · Trippingdrawn by John Tavares2 min
  • 6:13TORMichael Bunting · Holdingdrawn by Aaron Ekblad2 min

2nd

  • 18:16TORAlexander Kerfoot · Cross checkingdrawn by Ryan Lomberg2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
FLA goalTOR goalFinal: FLA 0%

Biggest swing: John Tavares, OT 4:38 — TOR 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
E. Staal · On goal · xG 0.29A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.23M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.20R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.18A. Ekblad · Missed · xG 0.18M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.15M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.15R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.14E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.14A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.13E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.12A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.11G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.09M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.09M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.08E. Luostarinen · Missed · xG 0.08M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.07B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.06A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.06S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.05G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.05C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.04M. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.04E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.04N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.04R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.04B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.04B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.04E. Luostarinen · Missed · xG 0.04A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.04G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03A. Barkov · Missed · xG 0.03A. Ekblad · On goal · xG 0.03A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.03B. Montour · Goal · xG 0.03M. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03G. Smith · On goal · xG 0.02N. Cousins · On goal · xG 0.02A. Barkov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Staal · On goal · xG 0.02G. Forsling · On goal · xG 0.02B. Montour · Missed · xG 0.02R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.02R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · On goal · xG 0.01S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.01R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.01M. Staal · On goal · xG 0.01A. Duclair · On goal · xG 0.01G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.01C. Verhaeghe · Missed · xG 0.01G. Forsling · Missed · xG 0.01B. Montour · On goal · xG 0.01R. Lomberg · On goal · xG 0.01C. Verhaeghe · On goal · xG 0.01E. Luostarinen · On goal · xG 0.01A. Duclair · Missed · xG 0.00R. Gudas · On goal · xG 0.00S. Reinhart · Missed · xG 0.00A. Lundell · On goal · xG 0.00
FLA1 G · 3.5 xG · 61 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsFLA
2.62 G
All situations
1 G3.5
2.62 G
Even strength
1 G3.2
0.00 G
Power play
0 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 98 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR37%63%FLA

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.61 – 3.39

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsFLA
25
Shots on goal
46
52%
Faceoffs
48%
0/1
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
2
25
Hits
36
23
Blocked shots
11
7
Giveaways
18
10
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
78T. BrodieD011020.23170—23:11
16M. MarnerR011+210.02000—21:38
34A. MatthewsC101+140.660105021:01
44M. RiellyD011010.07040—20:10
88W. NylanderR000-130.37000—19:44
22J. McCabeD000+100.01140—19:36
91J. TavaresC101030.341008019:15
90R. O'ReillyC000-110.172004518:50
52N. AcciariC000000.046205018:27
58M. BuntingL000+140.30302—17:53
55M. GiordanoD000010.01020—17:50
3J. HollD000010.01010—17:16
64D. KampfC000010.071005013:56
37T. LiljegrenD000010.01010—13:41
23M. KniesL000000.00110—13:09
15A. KerfootC000020.31002012:54
2L. SchennD000000.00700—11:14
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000000.00200—10:09
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35I. Samsonov(W)46451.9783.46+2.4664:38

Season series

TOR leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).