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Lightning at Senators
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at Ottawa Senators

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
4
Ottawa Senators
▸7
FinalTV BSSUN, SN360·Canadian Tire Centre

Recap

written from the game data

The Ottawa Senators beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 7-4. The Senators scored first and never trailed. The Senators led 4-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Alex DeBrincat's goal at 19:43 of the second period, which took the Senators' chances from 57% to 75%. Expected goals favored the Senators, 4.2 to 2.9; shots on goal were TBL 24, OTT 40. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Senators win a replay of these chances 61% of the time. Brian Elliott stopped 33 of 39 (.846), 2.5 goals below expected; Cam Talbot stopped 20 of 24 (.833), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Alex DeBrincat (1 G, 1 A), 2. Jake Sanderson (2 A), 3. Steven Stamkos (1 G, 2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    OTT
    A. DeBrincat1 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    OTT
    J. Sanderson2 A
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos1 G, 2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL1621117424
OTTOTT28214318740

Scoring

11 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    D. Batherson(22)
    E. Brannstrom (15), A. DeBrincat (39)
    deflectedxG 0.08win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:30
  2. TBL
    S. Stamkos(34)PPG
    V. Hedman (39), N. Kucherov (79)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +9 pts
    1-1
    2:51
  3. OTT
    J. Gauthier(9)
    D. Gambrell (6), J. Sanderson (26)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +13 pts
    1-2
    10:57

2nd period

  1. OTT
    P. Brown(4)
    M. Kastelic (4), A. Zub (7)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +15 pts
    1-3
    6:21
  2. TBL
    B. Hagel(29)PPG
    S. Stamkos (48), N. Kucherov (80)
    snapxG 0.34win prob +16 pts
    2-3
    13:38
  3. TBL
    V. Hedman(9)PPG
    N. Kucherov (81), S. Stamkos (49)
    slapxG 0.06win prob +17 pts
    3-3
    14:06
  4. OTT
    A. DeBrincat(27)PPG
    S. Pinto (14), T. Stützle (48)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +19 pts
    3-4
    19:43

3rd period

  1. OTT
    E. Sokolov(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.23win prob +15 pts
    3-5
    2:07
  2. TBL
    B. Point(49)
    V. Hedman (40), M. Eyssimont (10)
    snapxG 0.30win prob +15 pts
    4-5
    6:01
  3. OTT
    M. Kastelic(7)
    J. Sanderson (27)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +13 pts
    4-6
    10:49
  4. OTT
    C. Giroux(32)EN
    T. Stützle (49), B. Tkachuk (45)
    snapxG 0.71
    4-7
    19:41

Penalties

TBL 18 PIM·OTT 10 PIM

1st

  • 1:23OTTArtem Zub · Trippingdrawn by Nikita Kucherov2 min
  • 13:49TBLErik Cernak · Trippingdrawn by Claude Giroux2 min

2nd

  • 12:17OTTErik Brannstrom · Interferencedrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 13:05OTTClaude Giroux · Trippingdrawn by Brayden Point2 min
  • 18:28TBLIan Cole · Interferencedrawn by Brady Tkachuk2 min

3rd

  • 3:32TBLMichael Eyssimont · Slashingdrawn by Tim Stützle2 min
  • 7:49TBLIan Cole · Holdingdrawn by Julien Gauthier2 min
  • 10:49TBLVictor Hedman · Misconduct10 min
  • 12:56OTTserved by B. Tkachuk · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 15:08OTTJacob Bernard-Docker · Holdingdrawn by Michael Eyssimont2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
OTT goalTBL goalFinal: OTT 100%

Biggest swing: Alex DeBrincat, 2nd 19:43 — OTT 57% → 75%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Giroux · Goal · xG 0.71E. Sokolov · Goal · xG 0.23A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.20P. Brown · Goal · xG 0.19B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.14B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.14T. Stützle · Missed · xG 0.12B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.12S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.12C. Giroux · On goal · xG 0.10M. Joseph · Missed · xG 0.10S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.09D. Batherson · Missed · xG 0.09B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.09P. Brown · Missed · xG 0.09D. Batherson · Goal · xG 0.08M. Kastelic · On goal · xG 0.08D. Gambrell · On goal · xG 0.08D. Gambrell · On goal · xG 0.08M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.08S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.08A. DeBrincat · Missed · xG 0.07B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.07M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.06M. Kastelic · On goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.06J. Gauthier · Goal · xG 0.06B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.06P. Brown · Missed · xG 0.05M. Kastelic · Goal · xG 0.05A. DeBrincat · Goal · xG 0.05A. DeBrincat · On goal · xG 0.05J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.04J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.04B. Tkachuk · Missed · xG 0.04J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.04T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.04J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.04T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.03B. Tkachuk · On goal · xG 0.03J. Sanderson · On goal · xG 0.03S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.03E. Brannstrom · On goal · xG 0.02D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.02N. Holden · Missed · xG 0.02T. Kleven · On goal · xG 0.02E. Sokolov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.02J. Sanderson · Missed · xG 0.02A. Zub · On goal · xG 0.02T. Kleven · Missed · xG 0.02D. Batherson · On goal · xG 0.01A. Zub · Missed · xG 0.01D. Gambrell · Missed · xG 0.01M. Joseph · On goal · xG 0.01T. Kleven · Missed · xG 0.01T. Stützle · On goal · xG 0.01S. Pinto · On goal · xG 0.00E. Sokolov · On goal · xG 0.00
OTT7 G · 4.2 xG · 59 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsOTT
2.94 G
All situations
6 G4.2
1.31 G
Even strength
5 G2.2
1.43 G
Power play
1 G1.3
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 91 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL39%61%OTT

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.81 – 3.48

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsOTT
24
Shots on goal
40
41%
Faceoffs
59%
3/5
Power play
1/4
18
Penalty minutes
10
25
Hits
18
11
Blocked shots
14
10
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD123-220.330210—22:10
28I. ColeD000-220.03324—20:08
21B. PointC101-320.611104420:07
86N. KucherovR033-320.07100—19:36
91S. StamkosC123-230.412105319:31
43D. RaddyshD000-300.00110—19:30
81E. CernakD000-200.01302—18:38
17A. KillornL000020.25100—18:15
48N. PerbixD000000.00120—17:26
38B. HagelL101-240.50100—16:09
71A. CirelliC000-120.270003815:04
20N. PaulL000-110.180105013:48
24Z. BogosianD000010.02010—13:47
23M. EyssimontC011020.13202013:19
10C. PerryR000-210.06000—12:18
41P. BellemareL000-100.001001312:11
79R. ColtonC000-200.00400012:02
14P. MaroonL000000.00400—09:56
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1B. Elliott(L)39336.8463.54-2.4658:50

Season series

OTT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).