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Senators at Lightning
NHL

Ottawa Senators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Ottawa Senators
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸4
FinalTV BSSUNX, TSN5·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Ottawa Senators 4-3. The Senators scored first; the Lightning answered. The Senators led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nikita Kucherov's goal at 17:30 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 94%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.6 to 2.3; shots on goal were OTT 15, TBL 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 71% of the time. Anton Forsberg stopped 30 of 34 (.882); Andrei Vasilevskiy stopped 12 of 15 (.800), 0.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nikita Kucherov (1 G, 2 A), 2. Brayden Point (1 G, 1 A), 3. Mathieu Joseph (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    N. Kucherov1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Point1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    OTT
    M. Joseph1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
OTTOTT131517315
TBLTBL01211438434

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. OTT
    D. Gambrell(1)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.31win prob +10 pts
    1-0
    5:44

2nd period

  1. TBL
    M. Sergachev(2)PPG
    S. Stamkos (3), N. Kucherov (10)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +15 pts
    1-1
    3:17
  2. OTT
    M. Joseph(1)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.15win prob +21 pts
    2-1
    12:21

3rd period

  1. TBL
    A. Killorn(3)
    S. Stamkos (4), N. Paul (4)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +34 pts
    2-2
    11:04
  2. OTT
    C. Giroux(3)
    B. Tkachuk (6)
    wristxG 0.19win prob +35 pts
    3-2
    11:44
  3. TBL
    B. Point(5)
    N. Kucherov (11), I. Cole (1)
    wristxG 0.28win prob +35 pts
    3-3
    12:55
  4. TBL
    N. Kucherov(4)
    M. Sergachev (7), B. Point (5)
    snapxG 0.06win prob +43 pts
    3-4
    17:30

Penalties

OTT 26 PIM·TBL 13 PIM

1st

  • 1:57TBLPatrick Maroon · Fightingdrawn by Austin Watson5 min
  • 1:57OTTAustin Watson · Fightingdrawn by Patrick Maroon5 min
  • 6:12OTTTim Stützle · Chargingdrawn by Ian Cole2 min
  • 19:27OTTParker Kelly · Interferencedrawn by Cal Foote2 min

2nd

  • 1:42OTTJake Sanderson · High stickingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min
  • 4:25TBLMikhail Sergachev · Cross checkingdrawn by Thomas Chabot2 min
  • 7:27OTTDylan Gambrell · Match penaltydrawn by Erik Cernak5 min
  • 10:53OTTserved by B. Tkachuk · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 15:44OTTTravis Hamonic · Hookingdrawn by Vladislav Namestnikov2 min
  • 16:50TBLMikhail Sergachev · Hookingdrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min

3rd

  • 0:11OTTTravis Hamonic · Trippingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min
  • 4:47OTTBrady Tkachuk · Interferencedrawn by Alex Killorn2 min
  • 6:47TBLCal Foote · Interferencedrawn by Mathieu Joseph2 min
  • 6:47OTTNick Holden · Roughingdrawn by Corey Perry2 min
  • 6:47TBLCorey Perry · Roughingdrawn by Nick Holden2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalOTT goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Nikita Kucherov, 3rd 17:30 — TBL 52% → 94%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.30B. Point · Goal · xG 0.28A. Killorn · Goal · xG 0.24S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.21S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.19S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.17R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.16B. Point · On goal · xG 0.15S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.13N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.12R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.11V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.11C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.11B. Point · On goal · xG 0.10N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.10M. Sergachev · Goal · xG 0.09N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.08S. Stamkos · Missed · xG 0.07S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.07N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.07M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.06N. Kucherov · Goal · xG 0.06M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03C. Perry · On goal · xG 0.03R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.03S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.03C. Koepke · Missed · xG 0.02H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.02N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02C. Koepke · Missed · xG 0.01C. Perry · Missed · xG 0.01H. Fleury · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.01B. Point · On goal · xG 0.00I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.00E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL4 G · 3.6 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

OTTvsTBL
2.33 G
All situations
4 G3.6
1.32 G
Even strength
3 G1.2
0.70 G
Power play
1 G2.5
0.21 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 72 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
OTT29%71%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.25 – 3.52

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

OTTvsTBL
15
Shots on goal
34
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/3
Power play
1/8
36
Penalty minutes
13
32
Hits
32
19
Blocked shots
21
4
Giveaways
8
15
Takeaways
6

Box score

every player line
Ottawa Senators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
72T. ChabotD000010.12310—23:22
5N. HoldenD000-120.08322—20:55
22N. ZaitsevD000-100.00340—19:09
12A. DeBrincatR000010.07410—18:26
14T. MotteC000000.001105018:04
18T. StützleC000-100.160023317:31
21M. JosephR101+110.22030—17:26
23T. HamonicD000+100.01114—17:08
19D. BathersonR000-230.71000—17:06
85J. SandersonD000+110.05312—17:05
7B. TkachukL011-110.154025016:54
57S. PintoC000010.083006716:30
26E. BrannstromD000010.08220—16:02
28C. GirouxR101010.210007814:44
47M. KastelicC000-100.001205010:28
27D. GambrellC101+120.3200155007:47
16A. WatsonL000000.00205—07:36
45P. KellyC000+100.00212007:07
Ottawa Senators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
31A. Forsberg(L)34304.8823.62-0.3858:05

Season series

OTT leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).