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Lightning at Islanders
NHL

Tampa Bay Lightning at New York Islanders

NHL scoreboard
Tampa Bay Lightning
1
New York Islanders
▸6
FinalTV BSSUN, MSGSN·UBS Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The New York Islanders beat the Tampa Bay Lightning 6-1. The Islanders scored first and never trailed. The Islanders led 4-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Adam Pelech's goal at 3:46 of the second period, which took the Islanders' chances from 53% to 69%. Expected goals favored the Islanders, 3.1 to 2.3; shots on goal were TBL 31, NYI 42. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Islanders win a replay of these chances 64% of the time. Brian Elliott stopped 36 of 42 (.857), 2.9 goals below expected; Ilya Sorokin stopped 30 of 31 (.968), 1.3 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Brock Nelson (1 G, 2 A), 2. Ryan Pulock (1 G, 1 A), 3. Bo Horvat (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NYI
    B. Nelson1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    NYI
    R. Pulock1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    NYI
    B. Horvat1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TBLTBL03114014131
NYINYI013415214642

Scoring

7 goals

2nd period

  1. NYI
    A. Pelech(6)
    H. Fasching (9), J. Pageau (25)
    wristxG 0.02win prob +16 pts
    0-1
    3:46
  2. NYI
    B. Nelson(33)
    S. Bolduc (1)
    snapxG 0.25win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    9:54
  3. NYI
    K. Palmieri(16)
    B. Nelson (38), R. Pulock (21)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +8 pts
    0-3
    10:43
  4. TBL
    N. Kucherov(30)
    B. Point (42)
    wristxG 0.21win prob +7 pts
    1-3
    16:47
  5. NYI
    R. Pulock(5)
    B. Nelson (39), P. Engvall (13)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +7 pts
    1-4
    19:40

3rd period

  1. NYI
    S. Holmstrom(6)
    B. Horvat (29), Z. Parise (12)
    wristxG 0.16
    1-5
    15:14
  2. NYI
    B. Horvat(38)
    N. Dobson (31)
    tip-inxG 0.06
    1-6
    19:40

Penalties

TBL 6 PIM·NYI 4 PIM

1st

  • 11:58NYIKyle Palmieri · Slashingdrawn by Darren Raddysh2 min

2nd

  • 13:26TBLNick Perbix · Trippingdrawn by Zach Parise2 min

3rd

  • 8:25TBLSteven Stamkos · Trippingdrawn by Adam Pelech2 min
  • 19:37TBLVictor Hedman · Cross checkingdrawn by Jean-Gabriel Pageau2 min
  • 19:37NYIJean-Gabriel Pageau · Roughingdrawn by Victor Hedman2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NYI goalTBL goalFinal: NYI 100%

Biggest swing: Adam Pelech, 2nd 3:46 — NYI 53% → 69%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Nelson · Goal · xG 0.25B. Horvat · Missed · xG 0.18S. Holmstrom · Goal · xG 0.16B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.16A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.15A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.15K. Palmieri · Goal · xG 0.11H. Fasching · On goal · xG 0.11A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.10P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.10B. Horvat · Missed · xG 0.10P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.08A. Lee · Missed · xG 0.08K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.07A. Lee · On goal · xG 0.07M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.07K. Palmieri · Missed · xG 0.07B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.07J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.07B. Horvat · On goal · xG 0.07B. Horvat · Goal · xG 0.06R. Pulock · Goal · xG 0.06B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.06J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.05B. Nelson · On goal · xG 0.05K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.05S. Holmstrom · On goal · xG 0.05K. Palmieri · On goal · xG 0.05J. Pageau · Missed · xG 0.04C. Cizikas · Missed · xG 0.03M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.03P. Engvall · On goal · xG 0.02M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.02S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.02P. Engvall · Missed · xG 0.02A. Pelech · Goal · xG 0.02S. Bolduc · On goal · xG 0.02S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.02S. Bolduc · On goal · xG 0.02A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.02M. Martin · Missed · xG 0.01R. Pulock · On goal · xG 0.01S. Aho · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Parise · On goal · xG 0.01S. Bolduc · On goal · xG 0.01S. Mayfield · On goal · xG 0.01A. Pelech · On goal · xG 0.01M. Martin · Missed · xG 0.01J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.01C. Clutterbuck · Missed · xG 0.01J. Pageau · On goal · xG 0.01S. Aho · On goal · xG 0.00M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.00M. Martin · On goal · xG 0.00
NYI6 G · 3.1 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TBLvsNYI
2.31 G
All situations
6 G3.1
1.81 G
Even strength
6 G2.7
0.20 G
Power play
0 G0.3
0.30 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 96 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TBL36%64%NYI

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.22 – 3.01

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TBLvsNYI
31
Shots on goal
42
39%
Faceoffs
61%
0/1
Power play
0/2
6
Penalty minutes
4
16
Hits
23
26
Blocked shots
11
11
Giveaways
8
5
Takeaways
4

Box score

every player line
Tampa Bay Lightning skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
77V. HedmanD000010.02132—22:36
20N. PaulL000-110.200005620:23
98M. SergachevD000-430.09210—20:00
48N. PerbixD000000.03062—19:38
43D. RaddyshD000-410.00010—19:33
21B. PointC011-210.100103319:17
91S. StamkosC000-210.101323118:23
28I. ColeD000-110.02130—18:07
86N. KucherovR101-310.23100—17:51
23M. EyssimontC000020.17300016:58
17A. KillornL000-330.20110—16:46
41P. BellemareL000040.310004014:44
79R. ColtonC000-130.312105014:29
24Z. BogosianD000-120.03140—14:04
10C. PerryR000010.04000—13:35
7H. FleuryD000-150.36020—12:52
14P. MaroonL000-110.06100—09:56
84T. JeannotL000000.00200—06:25
Tampa Bay Lightning goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1B. Elliott(L)42366.8573.07-2.9360:00

Season series

TBL leads 2-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).