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Colorado Avalanche at San Jose Sharks

Final/OTTV ALT, NBCSCA·SAP Center at San Jose

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the San Jose Sharks 4-3 in overtime, Nathan MacKinnon scoring at 3:13. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 3:13 of overtime, which took the Avalanche's chances from 49% to 100%. Expected goals favored the Avalanche, 4.1 to 3.3; shots on goal were COL 42, SJS 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 28 of 31 (.903); Kaapo Kahkonen stopped 38 of 42 (.905). Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G, 1 A), 2. Kaapo Kahkonen (38 saves, .905), 3. Erik Karlsson (1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G, 1 A
  2. ★★
    SJS
    K. Kahkonen38 saves, .905
  3. ★★★
    SJS
    E. Karlsson1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdOTT
COLCOL2131190812442
SJSSJS071112904331

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    slapxG 0.02win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    4:29
  2. COL
    backhandxG 0.41win prob +15 pts
    2-0
    6:24

2nd period

  1. SJS
    snapxG 0.14win prob +17 pts
    2-1
    12:55
  2. COL
    slapxG 0.06win prob +18 pts
    3-1
    17:54

3rd period

  1. SJS
    wristxG 0.14win prob +12 pts
    3-2
    5:50
  2. SJS
    snapxG 0.39win prob +29 pts
    3-3
    7:11

Overtime

  1. COL
    snapxG 0.28win prob +51 pts
    4-3
    3:13

Penalties

COL 2 PIM·SJS 6 PIM

2nd

  • 2:54SJSJacob MacDonald · Trippingdrawn by Ben Meyers2 min
  • 14:39SJSTomas Hertl · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min

3rd

  • 1:20SJSNico Sturm · Holdingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 4:59COLKurtis MacDermid · Hookingdrawn by Danil Gushchin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
SJS goalCOL goalFinal: SJS 0%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, OT 3:13 — COL 49% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Labanc · Goal · xG 0.39S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.21M. Vlasic · On goal · xG 0.19F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.18K. Labanc · On goal · xG 0.17S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.15J. Peterson · Goal · xG 0.14K. Labanc · Goal · xG 0.14J. Peterson · Missed · xG 0.13S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.12S. Lorentz · On goal · xG 0.11M. Vlasic · On goal · xG 0.10H. Thrun · On goal · xG 0.09D. Gushchin · On goal · xG 0.09E. Karlsson · On goal · xG 0.09D. Gushchin · Missed · xG 0.09J. Peterson · On goal · xG 0.08K. Labanc · On goal · xG 0.08F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.07L. Couture · Missed · xG 0.06N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.06J. Peterson · Missed · xG 0.05K. Labanc · Missed · xG 0.05D. Gushchin · On goal · xG 0.05N. Gregor · On goal · xG 0.05E. Svechnikov · On goal · xG 0.05M. Benning · Missed · xG 0.04K. Labanc · Missed · xG 0.04J. MacDonald · On goal · xG 0.04M. Vlasic · On goal · xG 0.04M. Vlasic · On goal · xG 0.03N. Gregor · Missed · xG 0.02F. Zetterlund · On goal · xG 0.02M. Ferraro · On goal · xG 0.02D. Gushchin · On goal · xG 0.02J. Peterson · On goal · xG 0.02D. Gushchin · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ferraro · On goal · xG 0.01T. Bordeleau · On goal · xG 0.01
SJS3 G · 3.3 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsSJS
4.14 G
All situations
3 G3.3
3.64 G
Even strength
2 G2.9
0.60 G
Power play
1 G0.2
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 90 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL63%37%SJS

Flurry-adjusted xG 4.10 – 3.24

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsSJS
42
Shots on goal
31
41%
Faceoffs
59%
0/3
Power play
1/1
2
Penalty minutes
6
12
Hits
29
14
Blocked shots
22
10
Giveaways
7
8
Takeaways
11

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD022+200.02120—27:20
96M. RantanenR022+280.860006024:59
29N. MacKinnonC213+370.711104324:52
4B. ByramD011020.08030—24:52
13V. NichushkinR000+260.60110—22:52
49S. GirardD000000.00130—22:32
37J. CompherL000+210.130103722:20
9E. RodriguesC101+130.531005020:15
3J. JohnsonD101+120.04400—17:29
81D. MalginC011+130.27000016:48
6E. JohnsonD000010.07110—15:01
18A. NewhookC000-120.261003311:33
20L. EllerC000-120.110004111:11
25L. O'ConnorR000-120.17000—10:49
56K. MacDermidL000010.02112—10:31
11A. CoglianoC000-110.08010009:56
83M. NietoL000-100.00000—08:55
59B. MeyersC000-110.18000006:33
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(W)31283.9033.30+0.3063:13

Season series

COL leads 3-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).