Predators at Sabres 7-3 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

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Nashville Predators

▸7

Buffalo Sabres

FinalTV MSG-B, BSSO·KeyBank Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Nashville Predators beat the Buffalo Sabres 7-3. The Predators scored first and never trailed. The Predators led 6-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Tommy Novak's goal at 4:00 of the second period, which took the Predators' chances from 63% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.2 to 3.8; shots on goal were NSH 27, BUF 31. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 63% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 28 of 31 (.903), 1.2 goals saved above expected; Craig Anderson stopped 14 of 20 (.700), 3.8 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Luke Evangelista (2 G, 2 A), 2. Philip Tomasino (1 G, 1 A), 3. Tommy Novak (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

★
L. Evangelista2 G, 2 A
★★
P. Tomasino1 G, 1 A
★★★
T. Novak1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
NSH	212	48	17	727
BUF	05	214	112	331

Scoring

10 goals

1st period

P. Tomasino(4)
M. Duchene (33)
snapxG 0.16win prob +14 pts
1-0
11:45
M. Duchene(20)
P. Tomasino (9), J. Lauzon (8)
snapxG 0.11win prob +17 pts
2-0
18:43

2nd period

D. Cozens(27)
J. Peterka (18), J. Quinn (19)
backhandxG 0.26win prob +16 pts
2-1
3:36
T. Novak(14)
L. Evangelista (3), T. Barrie (36)
snapxG 0.18win prob +17 pts
3-1
4:00
L. Evangelista(4)
T. Novak (18), J. Saros (1)
snapxG 0.06win prob +10 pts
4-1
9:21
L. Evangelista(5)
K. Sherwood (5)
backhandxG 0.15win prob +5 pts
5-1
10:01
R. McDonagh(2)
L. Evangelista (4)
snapxG 0.05win prob +1 pts
6-1
15:52
T. Thompson(43)PPG
R. Dahlin (50), V. Olofsson (10)
slapxG 0.10win prob +1 pts
6-2
17:17

3rd period

J. Skinner(30)
A. Tuch (35)
tip-inxG 0.12win prob +1 pts
6-3
7:45
M. Duchene(21)EN
R. McDonagh (15)
wristxG 0.53
7-3
17:37

Penalties

13 PIM·

11 PIM

1st

4:54Ryan McDonagh · Delaying game puck over glass2 min
14:42Tage Thompson · Holdingdrawn by Philip Tomasino2 min

2nd

1:14Mark Jankowski · Hookingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
4:02Kiefer Sherwood · Fightingdrawn by Tage Thompson5 min
4:02Tage Thompson · Fightingdrawn by Kiefer Sherwood5 min
6:19Craig Anderson · Trippingdrawn by Jordan Gross2 min
16:46Dante Fabbro · Hookingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
17:03Colton Sissons · Throwing equipment2 min

3rd

4:31Henri Jokiharju · High stickingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: BUF

Biggest swing: Tommy Novak, 2nd 4:00 — NSH 63% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

3 G · 4.2 xG · 48 att

←

attacks

attacks →

7 G · 3.8 xG · 40 att BUF

3 G · 4.2 xG · 48 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

3.86 G
All situations: 3 G4.2; 2.46 G
Even strength: 2 G3.4; 0.90 G
Power play: 1 G0.7; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 88 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

37%63%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.25 – 4.13

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

27
Shots on goal: 31; 56%
Faceoffs: 44%; 0/3
Power play: 1/4; 13
Penalty minutes: 11; 16
Hits: 19; 8
Blocked shots: 9; 8
Giveaways: 5; 13
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Nashville Predators skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
3J. LauzonD	0	1	1	+3	0	0.07	1	0	0	—	20:11
57D. FabbroD	0	0	0	+2	0	0.00	2	1	2	—	20:02
22T. BarrieD	0	1	1	0	1	0.05	0	1	0	—	19:33
46J. GrossD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	—	19:04
52C. FooteD	0	0	0	+3	0	0.00	0	2	0	—	18:15
13Y. TreninC	0	0	0	0	1	0.24	2	0	0	0	18:11
10C. SissonsC	0	0	0	0	1	0.11	2	1	2	53	17:45
36C. SmithR	0	0	0	0	0	0.06	4	0	0	—	17:13
27R. McDonaghD	1	1	2	+2	1	0.05	0	1	2	—	17:08
8C. GlassC	0	0	0	+2	1	0.08	0	0	0	55	15:49
77L. EvangelistaR	2	2	4	+4	7	0.77	0	1	0	—	15:49
82T. NovakC	1	1	2	+3	4	0.43	0	1	0	44	15:30
95M. DucheneC	2	1	3	+3	3	1.20	1	0	0	100	14:35
17M. JankowskiL	0	0	0	-1	0	0.07	1	0	2	67	14:10
26P. TomasinoR	1	1	2	+2	6	0.52	0	0	0	—	13:18
70E. AfanasyevL	0	0	0	-2	1	0.00	3	0	0	—	12:51
44K. SherwoodL	0	1	1	+4	0	0.00	0	0	5	—	12:08
71R. AsplundC	0	0	0	0	1	0.14	0	0	0	0	11:59

Nashville Predators goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
74J. Saros(W)	31	28	3	.903	4.19	+1.19	59:58

Season series

Tied 1-1

Jan 145@3Final
Mar 217@3this game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Nashville Predators at Buffalo Sabres

1st period

2nd period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score