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Sabres at Predators
NHL

Buffalo Sabres at Nashville Predators

NHL scoreboard
Buffalo Sabres
▸5
Nashville Predators
3
FinalTV MSG-B, BSSO·Bridgestone Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Buffalo Sabres beat the Nashville Predators 5-3. The Sabres scored first and never trailed. It was tied 3-3 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Kyle Okposo's goal at 6:43 of the third period, which took the Sabres' chances from 41% to 73%. Expected goals favored the Sabres, 4.9 to 2.9; shots on goal were BUF 33, NSH 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Sabres win a replay of these chances 65% of the time. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen stopped 38 of 41 (.927); Juuse Saros stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 1.1 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Kyle Okposo (1 G), 2. Ryan Johansen (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jeff Skinner (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    BUF
    K. Okposo1 G
  2. ★★
    NSH
    R. Johansen1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    BUF
    J. Skinner1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
BUFBUF11429210533
NSHNSH15217019341

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. BUF
    J. Skinner(18)
    T. Thompson (27), R. Dahlin (35)
    wristxG 0.26win prob +13 pts
    1-0
    11:37
  2. NSH
    R. Josi(11)PPG
    R. Johansen (12), J. Parssinen (13)
    slapxG 0.03win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    15:23

2nd period

  1. BUF
    D. Cozens(14)
    J. Peterka (11), J. Quinn (12)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +16 pts
    2-1
    2:05
  2. BUF
    V. Olofsson(17)PPG
    O. Power (15), C. Mittelstadt (18)
    slapxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    3-1
    8:58
  3. NSH
    J. Lauzon(3)
    C. Glass (9), C. Sissons (8)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    3-2
    15:10
  4. NSH
    R. Johansen(10)
    D. Fabbro (7), M. Ekholm (12)
    tip-inxG 0.07win prob +21 pts
    3-3
    15:50

3rd period

  1. BUF
    K. Okposo(7)SHG
    I. Lyubushkin (5), M. Samuelsson (3)
    tip-inxG 0.10win prob +31 pts
    4-3
    6:43
  2. BUF
    J. Quinn(7)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.19win prob +9 pts
    5-3
    16:49

Penalties

BUF 6 PIM·NSH 8 PIM

1st

  • 8:10NSHRoland McKeown · Trippingdrawn by Tyson Jost2 min
  • 14:42BUFIlya Lyubushkin · Elbowingdrawn by Juuso Parssinen2 min
  • 15:52NSHCole Smith · Interference goalkeeperdrawn by Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen2 min

2nd

  • 8:19NSHFilip Forsberg · Slashingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min
  • 16:45BUFIlya Lyubushkin · Interferencedrawn by Juuso Parssinen2 min
  • 19:47NSHRoman Josi · Trippingdrawn by Jeff Skinner2 min

3rd

  • 5:57BUFTyson Jost · Slashingdrawn by Jeremy Lauzon2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NSH goalBUF goalFinal: NSH 0%

Biggest swing: Kyle Okposo, 3rd 6:43 — BUF 41% → 73%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.25N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.17N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.17F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.14M. Duchene · Missed · xG 0.13R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.12N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.12F. Forsberg · On goal · xG 0.10N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.09R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.08R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.08R. Johansen · On goal · xG 0.07F. Forsberg · Missed · xG 0.07C. Glass · Missed · xG 0.07T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.07R. Johansen · Goal · xG 0.07J. Parssinen · On goal · xG 0.07R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.07M. Ekholm · Missed · xG 0.06C. Smith · Missed · xG 0.06J. Parssinen · On goal · xG 0.06T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.06T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.06N. Niederreiter · On goal · xG 0.05R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.05D. Fabbro · On goal · xG 0.05J. Lauzon · Goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · Missed · xG 0.04R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.04R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03R. Johansen · Missed · xG 0.03R. Josi · Goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.03R. Josi · On goal · xG 0.03R. McDonagh · Missed · xG 0.02Y. Trenin · On goal · xG 0.02T. Novak · On goal · xG 0.02M. Duchene · On goal · xG 0.01R. McKeown · Missed · xG 0.01T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.01M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.01R. McDonagh · On goal · xG 0.01M. Ekholm · On goal · xG 0.01R. McKeown · On goal · xG 0.01C. Glass · On goal · xG 0.01M. Granlund · Missed · xG 0.01M. Granlund · On goal · xG 0.00
NSH3 G · 2.9 xG · 51 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

BUFvsNSH
4.95 G
All situations
3 G2.9
3.03 G
Even strength
2 G1.9
0.71 G
Power play
1 G1.0
0.31 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 101 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
BUF65%35%NSH

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.85 – 2.89

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

BUFvsNSH
33
Shots on goal
41
46%
Faceoffs
54%
1/4
Power play
1/3
6
Penalty minutes
8
14
Hits
36
18
Blocked shots
10
5
Giveaways
8
12
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Buffalo Sabres skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
25O. PowerD011040.30120—25:31
26R. DahlinD011+100.00140—25:21
10H. JokiharjuD000010.54210—21:48
23M. SamuelssonD011000.04030—21:33
17T. JostC000-130.194125021:00
89A. TuchR000+110.16200—20:31
72T. ThompsonC011+170.962006419:29
37C. MittelstadtC011-120.081103117:51
53J. SkinnerL101+130.46000—17:46
71V. OlofssonL101-120.73000—17:20
24D. CozensC101+230.320204614:38
22J. QuinnR112+120.36100—12:22
21K. OkposoR101+110.11010—12:00
77J. PeterkaR011+120.57000—11:27
46I. LyubushkinD011+200.02024—09:36
78J. BrysonD000+100.00000—09:28
74R. AsplundC000000.000107508:57
29V. HinostrozaC000020.05000008:41
Buffalo Sabres goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
1U. Luukkonen(W)41383.9272.92-0.0860:00

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).