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Winnipeg Jets at St. Louis Blues

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Recap

written from the game data

The St. Louis Blues beat the Winnipeg Jets 3-0. The Blues scored first and never trailed. The Blues led 2-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan Walker's goal at 10:34 of the second period, which took the Blues' chances from 71% to 87%. Expected goals were close — WPG 2.4, STL 2.4; shots on goal were WPG 34, STL 17. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 14 of 17 (.824), 0.6 goals below expected; Joel Hofer stopped 33 of 33 (1.000), 2.2 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Joel Hofer (33 saves, 1.000), 2. Kasperi Kapanen (1 G, 1 A), 3. Jakub Vrana (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    STL
    J. Hofer33 saves, 1.000
  2. ★★
    STL
    K. Kapanen1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    STL
    J. Vrana1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG01308013034
STLSTL171416317

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

  1. STL
    tip-inxG 0.30win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    4:04

2nd period

  1. STL
    J. Faulk (27), L. Brown (4)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +16 pts
    0-2
    10:34

3rd period

  1. STL
    wristxG 0.16win prob +3 pts
    0-3
    12:00

Penalties

WPG 17 PIM·STL 35 PIM

1st

  • 9:10WPGVladislav Namestnikov · Hookingdrawn by Nick Leddy2 min
  • 13:24STLTorey Krug · Roughingdrawn by Kevin Stenlund2 min
  • 13:24STLTorey Krug · Roughingdrawn by Kevin Stenlund2 min
  • 13:24STLTorey Krug · Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  • 13:24WPGKevin Stenlund · Roughingdrawn by Torey Krug2 min
  • 13:24STLTorey Krug · Misconduct10 min
  • 13:24STLTorey Krug · Game misconduct10 min

2nd

  • 17:19STLBrayden Schenn · Slashingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers2 min
  • 17:19WPGNikolaj Ehlers · Slashingdrawn by Brayden Schenn2 min
  • 17:19STLBrayden Schenn · Fightingdrawn by Nikolaj Ehlers5 min
  • 17:19WPGNikolaj Ehlers · Fightingdrawn by Brayden Schenn5 min

3rd

  • 3:03WPGMark Scheifele · Hookingdrawn by Logan Brown2 min
  • 6:45STLMarco Scandella · Trippingdrawn by Nino Niederreiter2 min
  • 16:57WPGBlake Wheeler · Trippingdrawn by Brandon Saad2 min
  • 20:00WPGVladislav Namestnikov · High stickingdrawn by Justin Faulk2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
STL goalWPG goalFinal: STL 100%

Biggest swing: Nathan Walker, 2nd 10:34 — STL 71% → 87%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Kapanen · Goal · xG 0.30J. Vrana · Goal · xG 0.16K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.16J. Vrana · On goal · xG 0.12N. Walker · Goal · xG 0.12J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.12J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.12B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.11R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.11R. Thomas · On goal · xG 0.10K. Kapanen · On goal · xG 0.10S. Blais · Missed · xG 0.10B. Saad · On goal · xG 0.09K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.08J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.08R. Bortuzzo · Missed · xG 0.07J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.07J. Kyrou · Missed · xG 0.05J. Faulk · On goal · xG 0.05K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.05L. Brown · On goal · xG 0.05R. Bortuzzo · On goal · xG 0.05K. Kapanen · Missed · xG 0.05N. Leddy · On goal · xG 0.04R. Bortuzzo · Missed · xG 0.02J. Kyrou · On goal · xG 0.00
STL3 G · 2.4 xG · 26 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsSTL
2.40 G
All situations
3 G2.4
1.80 G
Even strength
3 G1.9
0.70 G
Power play
0 G0.4
0.00 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG51%49%STL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.45 – 2.37

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsSTL
34
Shots on goal
17
63%
Faceoffs
37%
0/3
Power play
0/3
17
Penalty minutes
35
14
Hits
18
8
Blocked shots
16
6
Giveaways
11
14
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD000-330.17020—26:49
4N. PionkD000020.03110—22:42
81K. ConnorL000-120.22000—21:20
55M. ScheifeleC000-100.192026721:10
26B. WheelerR000-120.31002—19:33
88N. SchmidtD000000.00000—18:54
2D. DeMeloD000-240.07000—17:04
22M. AppletonC000-230.12100016:39
5B. DillonD000000.01300—16:33
80P. DuboisC000040.230106915:18
62N. NiederreiterR000030.21000—14:33
54D. SambergD000-110.04010—14:32
17A. LowryC000-220.081006414:31
7V. NamestnikovC000-120.08014014:24
27N. EhlersL000-130.43107—12:54
36M. BarronC000010.02210011:02
28K. StenlundC000010.151025009:30
8S. MaenalanenR000010.09210—07:35
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(L)17143.8242.38-0.6258:57

Season series

WPG leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).