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Canadiens at Lightning
NHL

Montréal Canadiens at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Montréal Canadiens
3
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
FinalTV BSSUNX, SNE·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Montréal Canadiens 5-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Canadiens led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brandon Hagel's goal at 5:58 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Lightning, 3.7 to 1.7; shots on goal were MTL 21, TBL 41. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Lightning win a replay of these chances 74% of the time. Samuel Montembeault stopped 36 of 40 (.900), 0.9 goals below expected; Brian Elliott stopped 18 of 21 (.857), 1.3 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Brandon Hagel (3 G), 2. Mikhail Sergachev (2 A), 3. Mike Hoffman (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Hagel3 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    M. Sergachev2 A
  3. ★★★
    MTL
    M. Hoffman1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
MTLMTL1621104321
TBLTBL113112316541

Scoring

8 goals

1st period

  1. MTL
    M. Hoffman(12)
    N. Suzuki (31), D. Savard (15)
    wristxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    5:12
  2. TBL
    V. Hedman(7)
    N. Paul (15), Z. Bogosian (4)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    1-1
    11:31

2nd period

  1. TBL
    B. Hagel(25)
    N. Kucherov (71), M. Sergachev (45)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +17 pts
    1-2
    4:50
  2. MTL
    D. Gurianov(7)
    J. Anderson (11), N. Suzuki (32)
    snapxG 0.05win prob +17 pts
    2-2
    6:29
  3. MTL
    J. Ylonen(5)PPG
    M. Hoffman (17), J. Barron (10)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +19 pts
    3-2
    12:23

3rd period

  1. TBL
    S. Stamkos(30)PPG
    N. Kucherov (72), A. Killorn (32)
    slapxG 0.12win prob +20 pts
    3-3
    3:14
  2. TBL
    B. Hagel(26)
    M. Sergachev (46), B. Point (38)
    tip-inxG 0.11win prob +27 pts
    3-4
    5:58
  3. TBL
    B. Hagel(27)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.61win prob +2 pts
    3-5
    19:16

Penalties

MTL 4 PIM·TBL 4 PIM

2nd

  • 10:26TBLMikhail Sergachev · Holdingdrawn by Denis Gurianov2 min
  • 17:25MTLMike Hoffman · Hookingdrawn by Ross Colton2 min

3rd

  • 2:51MTLMichael Pezzetta · Interferencedrawn by Mikhail Sergachev2 min
  • 11:55TBLBrandon Hagel · Hookingdrawn by Rem Pitlick2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalMTL goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Brandon Hagel, 3rd 5:58 — TBL 52% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Hagel · Goal · xG 0.61R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.21R. Colton · Missed · xG 0.16N. Paul · Missed · xG 0.15S. Stamkos · Goal · xG 0.12A. Killorn · Missed · xG 0.12B. Hagel · Goal · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.11B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.11R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.10T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.10V. Hedman · Goal · xG 0.09N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.09B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.08T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.08N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · Missed · xG 0.07I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.07N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.07D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.06T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.06M. Eyssimont · Missed · xG 0.06V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.06T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.06B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.05D. Raddysh · On goal · xG 0.05M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.05B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.05B. Hagel · Goal · xG 0.04I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.04T. Jeannot · Missed · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.04R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.03V. Hedman · Missed · xG 0.03B. Point · Missed · xG 0.03E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.02S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.02V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.02I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.02E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.02E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.02M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.01I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.01Z. Bogosian · On goal · xG 0.01E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.01T. Jeannot · On goal · xG 0.01A. Killorn · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL5 G · 3.7 xG · 56 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

MTLvsTBL
1.73 G
All situations
4 G3.7
1.32 G
Even strength
3 G2.7
0.21 G
Power play
1 G0.4
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 86 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
MTL26%74%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 1.65 – 3.03

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

MTLvsTBL
21
Shots on goal
41
38%
Faceoffs
62%
1/2
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
4
37
Hits
20
20
Blocked shots
7
11
Giveaways
13
12
Takeaways
19

Box score

every player line
Montréal Canadiens skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
14N. SuzukiC022010.162004825:32
8M. MathesonD000-120.04100—25:01
44J. EdmundsonD000000.00530—22:36
58D. SavardD011-110.01430—22:01
25D. GurianovR101-220.08200—18:39
68M. HoffmanC112060.47012018:18
67C. TierneyC000010.001101218:14
17J. AndersonR011-110.223305018:09
26J. KovacevicD000-100.01110—18:06
49R. Harvey-PinardL000000.18440—17:57
32R. PitlickC000000.09000016:43
60A. BelzileR000-220.063305416:36
52J. BarronD011020.07210—15:57
56J. YlonenR101-210.14100—15:13
6C. WidemanD000000.00300—12:13
90A. RichardC000-120.14100009:34
55M. PezzettaL000000.00402—07:32
27J. DrouinL000000.00000—00:00
Montréal Canadiens goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35S. Montembeault(L)40364.9003.05-0.9559:16

Season series

TBL leads 3-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).