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Avalanche at Red Wings
NHL

Colorado Avalanche at Detroit Red Wings

NHL scoreboard
Colorado Avalanche
▸5
Detroit Red Wings
1
FinalTV BSDET, ALT·Little Caesars Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Detroit Red Wings 5-1. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 3-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Nathan MacKinnon's goal at 7:24 of the second period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 47% to 65%. Expected goals favored the Red Wings, 2.7 to 2.2; shots on goal were COL 23, DET 34. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Red Wings win a replay of these chances 59% of the time. Alexandar Georgiev stopped 33 of 34 (.971), 1.7 goals saved above expected; Ville Husso stopped 16 of 21 (.762), 3.0 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (1 G, 2 A), 2. Cale Makar (3 A), 3. Alexandar Georgiev (33 saves, .971).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon1 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    C. Makar3 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    A. Georgiev33 saves, .971

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
COLCOL1621225523
DETDET11608010134

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    D. Toews(5)
    J. Compher (30), C. Makar (43)
    slapxG 0.02win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    5:01
  2. DET
    P. Suter(12)
    D. Larkin (40)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    6:55

2nd period

  1. COL
    N. MacKinnon(30)
    D. Malgin (5), C. Makar (44)
    snapxG 0.09win prob +18 pts
    2-1
    7:24
  2. COL
    B. Byram(7)PPG
    C. Makar (45), N. MacKinnon (57)
    snapxG 0.13win prob +17 pts
    3-1
    17:37

3rd period

  1. COL
    L. Eller(9)SHG
    V. Nichushkin (23), J. Johnson (5)
    wristxG 0.24win prob +7 pts
    4-1
    4:20
  2. COL
    M. Rantanen(46)
    E. Rodrigues (19), N. MacKinnon (58)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +2 pts
    5-1
    5:16

Penalties

COL 8 PIM·DET 8 PIM

1st

  • 8:56COLLars Eller · Slashingdrawn by Joseph Veleno2 min
  • 14:58COLMikko Rantanen · Interferencedrawn by Jake Walman2 min

2nd

  • 12:00DETSimon Edvinsson · Trippingdrawn by J.T. Compher2 min
  • 15:49DETJake Walman · Roughingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 15:49COLMikko Rantanen · Holdingdrawn by Moritz Seider2 min
  • 16:46DETRobert Hagg · Trippingdrawn by Alex Newhook2 min

3rd

  • 2:35COLAndrew Cogliano · Trippingdrawn by Simon Edvinsson2 min
  • 7:05DETAdam Erne · Roughingdrawn by Valeri Nichushkin2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
DET goalCOL goalFinal: DET 0%

Biggest swing: Nathan MacKinnon, 2nd 7:24 — COL 47% → 65%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.34A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.20D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.14A. Chiasson · On goal · xG 0.11D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.11L. Raymond · Missed · xG 0.11D. Kubalik · Missed · xG 0.11A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.11A. Copp · Missed · xG 0.10D. Kubalik · Missed · xG 0.10D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.10A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.09L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.09O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.09D. Larkin · On goal · xG 0.08D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.07A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.07D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.06D. Perron · Missed · xG 0.06F. Zadina · On goal · xG 0.05A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.05D. Kubalik · Missed · xG 0.04P. Suter · Goal · xG 0.04S. Edvinsson · On goal · xG 0.04A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.03O. Maatta · On goal · xG 0.03S. Edvinsson · Missed · xG 0.03D. Perron · On goal · xG 0.03J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.03J. Veleno · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.02J. Veleno · On goal · xG 0.02A. Erne · On goal · xG 0.02R. Hagg · On goal · xG 0.02J. Oesterle · On goal · xG 0.02A. Copp · On goal · xG 0.01L. Raymond · On goal · xG 0.01D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.01F. Zadina · Missed · xG 0.01D. Kubalik · On goal · xG 0.01J. Walman · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.01M. Seider · On goal · xG 0.00
DET1 G · 2.7 xG · 43 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

COLvsDET
2.25 G
All situations
1 G2.7
1.63 G
Even strength
1 G1.5
0.21 G
Power play
0 G1.0
0.41 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 78 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
COL41%59%DET

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.13 – 2.61

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

COLvsDET
23
Shots on goal
34
37%
Faceoffs
63%
1/3
Power play
0/3
8
Penalty minutes
8
10
Hits
17
14
Blocked shots
10
4
Giveaways
3
1
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Colorado Avalanche skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
7D. ToewsD101+240.21330—24:04
8C. MakarD033+310.03130—21:45
49S. GirardD000-120.20030—21:02
96M. RantanenR101020.29004—19:50
29N. MacKinnonC123+130.271003719:39
4B. ByramD101010.16210—19:39
37J. CompherL011+100.000004119:29
9E. RodriguesC011+110.1901010017:53
3J. JohnsonD011+210.01110—17:17
13V. NichushkinR011+220.13010—17:02
81D. MalginC011+220.18000014:36
17B. HuntD000010.03000—13:43
20L. EllerC101+120.371024412:24
25L. O'ConnorR000000.00000—12:05
83M. NietoL000000.08000—11:53
11A. CoglianoC000000.00012011:36
18A. NewhookC000010.021002010:24
47A. GalchenyukC000000.00000007:39
Colorado Avalanche goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
40A. Georgiev(W)34331.9712.68+1.6860:00

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).