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Red Wings at Avalanche
NHL

Detroit Red Wings at Colorado Avalanche

NHL scoreboard
Detroit Red Wings
3
Colorado Avalanche
▸6
FinalTV BSDET, ALT·Ball Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Colorado Avalanche beat the Detroit Red Wings 6-3. The Avalanche scored first and never trailed. The Avalanche led 5-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Cale Makar's goal at 18:04 of the first period, which took the Avalanche's chances from 71% to 83%. Expected goals were close — DET 2.6, COL 2.7; shots on goal were DET 29, COL 27. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Avalanche win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Ville Husso stopped 17 of 22 (.773), 2.7 goals below expected; Pavel Francouz stopped 26 of 29 (.897). Three stars: 1. Nathan MacKinnon (2 G, 2 A), 2. Cale Makar (2 G, 1 A), 3. Evan Rodrigues (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    COL
    N. MacKinnon2 G, 2 A
  2. ★★
    COL
    C. Makar2 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    COL
    E. Rodrigues2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
DETDET0818213329
COLCOL21031215627

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. COL
    A. Lehkonen(12)
    C. Makar (30), D. Toews (19)
    wristxG 0.06win prob +12 pts
    0-1
    5:12
  2. COL
    C. Makar(12)PPG
    N. MacKinnon (33), V. Nichushkin (10)
    wristxG 0.04win prob +12 pts
    0-2
    18:04

2nd period

  1. COL
    C. Makar(13)
    N. MacKinnon (34), J. Compher (17)
    wristxG 0.16win prob +9 pts
    0-3
    3:05
  2. COL
    J. Compher(9)PPG
    E. Rodrigues (12), S. Girard (9)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +3 pts
    0-4
    10:06
  3. COL
    N. MacKinnon(12)
    E. Rodrigues (13), D. Toews (20)
    tip-inxG 0.13win prob +1 pts
    0-5
    15:53
  4. DET
    A. Copp(4)
    D. Perron (16), M. Rasmussen (11)
    wristxG 0.05win prob +1 pts
    1-5
    18:58

3rd period

  1. DET
    B. Chiarot(4)
    F. Hronek (24), D. Larkin (25)
    slapxG 0.04win prob +1 pts
    2-5
    3:40
  2. COL
    N. MacKinnon(13)
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.27win prob +1 pts
    2-6
    5:24
  3. DET
    D. Perron(13)
    M. Seider (16), M. Rasmussen (12)
    tip-inxG 0.17
    3-6
    19:26

Penalties

DET 10 PIM·COL 6 PIM

1st

  • 5:12DETserved by D. Perron · Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
  • 11:13COLLogan O'Connor · Hookingdrawn by Tyler Bertuzzi2 min
  • 13:26DETRobby Fabbri · Hookingdrawn by Cale Makar2 min
  • 17:25DETserved by D. Perron · Too many men on the ice2 min

2nd

  • 8:41DETDylan Larkin · Slashingdrawn by Ben Meyers2 min
  • 13:31COLAlex Newhook · Delaying game puck over glass2 min

3rd

  • 3:32DETMichael Rasmussen · Cross checkingdrawn by Evan Rodrigues2 min
  • 3:32COLEvan Rodrigues · Roughingdrawn by Michael Rasmussen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
COL goalDET goalFinal: COL 100%

Biggest swing: Cale Makar, 1st 18:04 — COL 71% → 83%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.27N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.26N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.20V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.20C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.16N. MacKinnon · Goal · xG 0.13J. Compher · Goal · xG 0.13D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.10A. Newhook · On goal · xG 0.10E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.10M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.08M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.08N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.08J. Compher · On goal · xG 0.07J. Compher · Missed · xG 0.06C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.06M. Rantanen · Missed · xG 0.06A. Lehkonen · Goal · xG 0.06N. MacKinnon · Missed · xG 0.04N. MacKinnon · On goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · Goal · xG 0.04C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.04B. Meyers · Missed · xG 0.03C. Makar · Missed · xG 0.03E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.03M. Rantanen · On goal · xG 0.03C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.03E. Johnson · On goal · xG 0.02E. Rodrigues · Missed · xG 0.02C. Makar · On goal · xG 0.02V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.02B. Hunt · On goal · xG 0.01A. Englund · Missed · xG 0.01D. Toews · On goal · xG 0.01V. Nichushkin · On goal · xG 0.00E. Rodrigues · On goal · xG 0.00
COL6 G · 2.7 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

DETvsCOL
2.63 G
All situations
6 G2.7
1.93 G
Even strength
4 G1.6
0.70 G
Power play
2 G1.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 80 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
DET49%51%COL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.57 – 2.65

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

DETvsCOL
29
Shots on goal
27
62%
Faceoffs
38%
0/2
Power play
2/4
10
Penalty minutes
6
23
Hits
20
24
Blocked shots
10
2
Giveaways
7
5
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Detroit Red Wings skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
53M. SeiderD011000.04110—23:40
96J. WalmanD000+230.05040—22:53
17F. HronekD011-130.08400—21:39
8B. ChiarotD101-120.06220—17:50
71D. LarkinC011010.193026916:57
59T. BertuzziL000-320.36010—16:10
2O. MaattaD000000.00100—16:03
14R. FabbriC000010.091325015:56
52J. BerggrenR000000.03000—15:43
23L. RaymondL000010.03020—15:39
18A. CoppC101+120.140107115:32
82J. OesterleD000-120.06040—15:11
24P. SuterC000-230.270005014:30
57D. PerronL112-110.55210—14:16
27M. RasmussenC022+230.2630210013:32
73A. ErneL000000.00230—13:25
81D. KubalikL000-130.15210—12:04
90J. VelenoC000020.232105610:56
Detroit Red Wings goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
35V. Husso(L)22175.7732.30-2.7040:00
45M. Hellberg541.8000.41-0.5920:00

Season series

COL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).