Wild at Maple Leafs 1-2 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Minnesota Wild

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸2

Final/OTTV BSWIX, BSNX·Scotiabank Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Minnesota Wild 2-1 in overtime, William Nylander scoring at 1:05. The Wild scored first; the Maple Leafs answered. It was tied 1-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was William Nylander's goal at 1:05 of overtime, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 51% to 100%. Expected goals were close — MIN 2.5, TOR 2.4; shots on goal were MIN 25, TOR 24. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 51% of the time. Filip Gustavsson stopped 22 of 24 (.917); Ilya Samsonov stopped 24 of 25 (.960), 1.5 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. William Nylander (1 G, 1 A), 2. Mark Giordano (1 A), 3. David Kampf (1 G).

Three stars

★
W. Nylander1 G, 1 A
★★
M. Giordano1 A
★★★
D. Kampf1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	OT	T
MIN	16	012	07	00	125
TOR	19	010	03	12	224

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

B. Duhaime(7)
F. Gaudreau (14)
snapxG 0.09win prob +14 pts
1-0
12:10
D. Kampf(6)
W. Nylander (37), M. Giordano (18)
wristxG 0.08win prob +14 pts
1-1
16:07

Overtime

W. Nylander(33)
Unassisted
wristxG 0.38win prob +49 pts
1-2
1:05

Penalties

4 PIM·

2 PIM

2nd

7:15Mathew Dumba · Trippingdrawn by Zachary Aston-Reese2 min

3rd

12:31Jake Middleton · Trippingdrawn by Ryan O'Reilly2 min
16:18Mitch Marner · Trippingdrawn by Mathew Dumba2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: TOR

100%

Biggest swing: William Nylander, OT 1:05 — TOR 51% → 100%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

2 G · 2.4 xG · 37 att

←

attacks

attacks →

1 G · 2.5 xG · 39 att TOR

2 G · 2.4 xG · 37 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

2.51 G
All situations: 2 G2.4; 2.21 G
Even strength: 2 G2.1; 0.30 G
Power play: 0 G0.2; 0.00 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

51%49%

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.43 – 2.35

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

25
Shots on goal: 24; 29%
Faceoffs: 71%; 0/1
Power play: 0/2; 4
Penalty minutes: 2; 42
Hits: 27; 18
Blocked shots: 26; 13
Giveaways: 14; 9
Takeaways: 10

Box score

every player line

Minnesota Wild skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
46J. SpurgeonD	0	0	0	+1	1	0.02	3	5	0	—	24:39
5J. MiddletonD	0	0	0	+1	3	0.06	1	4	2	—	23:37
33A. GoligoskiD	0	0	0	-1	2	0.01	1	0	0	—	22:54
24M. DumbaD	0	0	0	0	1	0.05	1	1	2	—	22:11
14J. Eriksson EkC	0	0	0	0	3	0.73	3	1	0	37	21:36
97K. KaprizovL	0	0	0	-1	2	0.36	4	0	0	—	21:07
12M. BoldyL	0	0	0	-1	3	0.24	0	0	0	50	18:56
36M. ZuccarelloR	0	0	0	-1	1	0.26	0	0	0	—	17:13
38R. HartmanR	0	0	0	-1	3	0.14	3	0	0	10	16:44
17M. FolignoL	0	0	0	0	1	0.08	6	1	0	—	14:35
89F. GaudreauC	0	1	1	0	2	0.11	0	1	0	38	14:24
2C. AddisonD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.01	2	1	0	—	13:08
6D. MermisD	0	0	0	-1	0	0.00	1	2	0	—	12:54
18J. GreenwayL	0	0	0	+1	0	0.10	2	0	0	—	11:46
75R. ReavesR	0	0	0	0	0	0.02	4	1	0	—	11:34
21B. DuhaimeL	1	0	1	+1	2	0.20	6	0	0	—	11:20
15M. ShawC	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	2	1	0	0	10:56
26C. DewarC	0	0	0	0	1	0.10	3	0	0	0	10:02

Minnesota Wild goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
32F. Gustavsson(O)	24	22	2	.917	2.35	+0.35	60:44

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Nov 254@3Final
Feb 241@2OTthis game

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Minnesota Wild at Toronto Maple Leafs

1st period

Overtime

2nd

3rd

Box score