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Maple Leafs at Wild
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Minnesota Wild

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
▸4
Minnesota Wild
3
FinalTV BSN, BSWI·Xcel Energy Center

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Minnesota Wild 4-3. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Calle Jarnkrok's goal at 10:04 of the second period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 47% to 66%. Expected goals were close — TOR 2.1, MIN 2.3; shots on goal were TOR 28, MIN 28. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Wild win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.7 goals below expected; Marc-Andre Fleury stopped 24 of 28 (.857), 1.9 goals below expected. Three stars: 1. Matt Murray (25 saves, .893), 2. Kirill Kaprizov (1 G, 1 A), 3. John Tavares (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TOR
    M. Murray25 saves, .893
  2. ★★
    MIN
    K. Kaprizov1 G, 1 A
  3. ★★★
    TOR
    J. Tavares2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR21011117428
MINMIN11216110328

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TOR
    M. Marner(5)
    T. Liljegren (2), J. Tavares (12)
    wristxG 0.01win prob +12 pts
    1-0
    3:42
  2. MIN
    K. Kaprizov(12)PPG
    J. Eriksson Ek (9), M. Zuccarello (13)
    snapxG 0.18win prob +11 pts
    1-1
    12:01
  3. TOR
    Z. Aston-Reese(3)
    P. Engvall (3)
    wristxG 0.03win prob +14 pts
    2-1
    12:43

2nd period

  1. MIN
    M. Boldy(8)
    A. Goligoski (1), J. Greenway (1)
    snapxG 0.15win prob +16 pts
    2-2
    2:38
  2. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(5)
    M. Giordano (4), J. Tavares (13)
    snapxG 0.27win prob +19 pts
    3-2
    10:04

3rd period

  1. TOR
    W. Nylander(11)
    M. Bunting (7), V. Mete (2)
    wristxG 0.14win prob +13 pts
    4-2
    13:23
  2. MIN
    M. Zuccarello(7)
    K. Kaprizov (12), A. Goligoski (2)
    snapxG 0.10win prob +8 pts
    4-3
    16:26

Penalties

TOR 4 PIM·MIN 6 PIM

1st

  • 8:28MINJordan Greenway · High stickingdrawn by Rasmus Sandin2 min
  • 11:13TORJustin Holl · High stickingdrawn by Kirill Kaprizov2 min

2nd

  • 11:35MINRyan Reaves · Trippingdrawn by Timothy Liljegren2 min
  • 17:31MINJon Merrill · Trippingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min

3rd

  • 4:51TORAlexander Kerfoot · Slashingdrawn by Nic Petan2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
MIN goalTOR goalFinal: MIN 0%

Biggest swing: Calle Jarnkrok, 2nd 10:04 — TOR 47% → 66%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.24K. Kaprizov · Goal · xG 0.19S. Steel · On goal · xG 0.18C. Dewar · On goal · xG 0.17M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.16M. Boldy · Goal · xG 0.15J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.10M. Zuccarello · Goal · xG 0.10M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.09K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.09C. Addison · Missed · xG 0.09M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.06M. Foligno · Missed · xG 0.06M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.05K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.05R. Reaves · Missed · xG 0.04J. Middleton · Missed · xG 0.04K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.04R. Reaves · Missed · xG 0.04M. Zuccarello · On goal · xG 0.04C. Dewar · On goal · xG 0.04A. Goligoski · Missed · xG 0.03M. Dumba · Missed · xG 0.03K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.03K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.02J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.02M. Boldy · Missed · xG 0.02J. Spurgeon · On goal · xG 0.02M. Shaw · Missed · xG 0.02J. Eriksson Ek · Missed · xG 0.02K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.02M. Foligno · On goal · xG 0.01R. Reaves · On goal · xG 0.01F. Gaudreau · On goal · xG 0.01K. Kaprizov · On goal · xG 0.01M. Dumba · On goal · xG 0.01R. Reaves · Missed · xG 0.01N. Petan · Missed · xG 0.01J. Eriksson Ek · On goal · xG 0.01J. Merrill · On goal · xG 0.00M. Shaw · On goal · xG 0.00
MIN3 G · 2.3 xG · 41 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsMIN
2.14 G
All situations
3 G2.3
1.64 G
Even strength
2 G1.5
0.30 G
Power play
1 G0.6
0.20 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 79 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR46%54%MIN

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.10 – 2.28

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsMIN
28
Shots on goal
28
56%
Faceoffs
44%
0/3
Power play
1/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
12
Hits
22
22
Blocked shots
10
4
Giveaways
5
4
Takeaways
10

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
3J. HollD000000.00312—23:46
55M. GiordanoD011-110.01210—23:06
16M. MarnerR101020.02020—22:23
38R. SandinD000+120.06320—21:50
37T. LiljegrenD011+100.00130—20:06
34A. MatthewsC000+130.322303319:29
91J. TavaresC022030.361005718:10
64D. KampfC000+130.150006715:30
58M. BuntingL011+100.00020—15:29
88W. NylanderR101+130.44000—15:21
47P. EngvallL011+110.03000—15:03
19C. JarnkrokC101020.3001010014:58
81M. HollowellD000+210.05030—13:45
12Z. Aston-ReeseL101+130.23010—13:27
15A. KerfootC000010.0901210013:26
98V. MeteD011+110.02000—11:47
29P. HolmbergR000000.010204010:22
24W. SimmondsR000020.04000—09:22
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(W)28253.8932.33-0.6759:52

Season series

TOR leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).