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Winnipeg Jets at New Jersey Devils

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Recap

written from the game data

The New Jersey Devils beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-2. The Jets scored first; the Devils answered. The Jets led 2-1 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Miles Wood's goal at 6:53 of the third period, which took the Devils' chances from 52% to 80%. Expected goals favored the Devils, 3.1 to 2.4; shots on goal were WPG 25, NJD 29. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Jets win a replay of these chances 54% of the time. Connor Hellebuyck stopped 25 of 28 (.893), 0.8 goals below expected; Mackenzie Blackwood stopped 23 of 25 (.920). Three stars: 1. Dawson Mercer (2 G), 2. Miles Wood (1 G), 3. Fabian Zetterlund (1 G).

Three stars

  1. ★
    NJD
    D. Mercer2 G
  2. ★★
    NJD
    M. Wood1 G
  3. ★★★
    NJD
    F. Zetterlund1 G

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
WPGWPG2601009225
NJDNJD11101137429

Scoring

6 goals

1st period

  1. WPG
    snapxG 0.30win prob +15 pts
    1-0
    14:57
  2. NJD
    tip-inxG 0.06win prob +14 pts
    1-1
    15:16
  3. WPG
    slapxG 0.02win prob +15 pts
    2-1
    17:09

3rd period

  1. NJD
    snapxG 0.14win prob +28 pts
    2-2
    5:02
  2. NJD
    snapxG 0.25win prob +28 pts
    2-3
    6:53
  3. NJD
    D. Mercer(15)EN
    E. Haula (21), R. Graves (13)
    snapxG 0.88win prob +2 pts
    2-4
    19:04

Penalties

WPG 4 PIM·NJD 6 PIM

1st

  • 12:11WPGBrenden Dillon · High stickingdrawn by John Marino2 min

2nd

  • 14:58NJDBrendan Smith · Trippingdrawn by Blake Wheeler2 min

3rd

  • 10:16NJDMiles Wood · Cross checkingdrawn by Brenden Dillon2 min
  • 13:17WPGMorgan Barron · Cross checkingdrawn by Dougie Hamilton2 min
  • 14:48NJDTomas Tatar · Hookingdrawn by Saku Maenalanen2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
NJD goalWPG goalFinal: NJD 100%

Biggest swing: Miles Wood, 3rd 6:53 — NJD 52% → 80%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
D. Mercer · Goal · xG 0.88M. Wood · Goal · xG 0.25N. Hischier · On goal · xG 0.23F. Zetterlund · Goal · xG 0.14T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.13D. Mercer · On goal · xG 0.13J. Bratt · On goal · xG 0.12J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.11M. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.10T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.09M. McLeod · Missed · xG 0.08J. Bratt · Missed · xG 0.08T. Tatar · On goal · xG 0.07D. Mercer · On goal · xG 0.07D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.07J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.07D. Mercer · Goal · xG 0.06M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.05D. Severson · On goal · xG 0.05N. Hischier · Missed · xG 0.05M. Wood · On goal · xG 0.04R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.04J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.02E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.02D. Severson · Missed · xG 0.02D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.02J. Hughes · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.01E. Haula · On goal · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · Missed · xG 0.01B. Smith · Missed · xG 0.01D. Hamilton · On goal · xG 0.01R. Graves · On goal · xG 0.01J. Bratt · Missed · xG 0.01J. Siegenthaler · On goal · xG 0.01
NJD4 G · 3.1 xG · 37 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

WPGvsNJD
2.42 G
All situations
3 G3.1
1.92 G
Even strength
3 G2.1
0.50 G
Power play
0 G0.1

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 76 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
WPG54%46%NJD

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.36 – 2.16

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

WPGvsNJD
25
Shots on goal
29
39%
Faceoffs
61%
0/3
Power play
0/2
4
Penalty minutes
6
10
Hits
13
12
Blocked shots
18
6
Giveaways
15
9
Takeaways
13

Box score

every player line
Winnipeg Jets skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
44J. MorrisseyD000-220.22140—24:30
55M. ScheifeleC022+130.260003623:09
4N. PionkD112+230.08330—22:29
2D. DeMeloD000-250.05100—22:13
22M. AppletonC000+200.000105018:19
81K. ConnorL000-210.25100—17:41
91C. PerfettiC101020.51000017:33
5B. DillonD011+100.02122—16:25
88N. SchmidtD000-110.11100—16:21
26B. WheelerR000-300.00000—15:52
54D. SambergD000-110.01110—14:51
17A. LowryC000-110.120004714:08
80P. DuboisC000-310.010002313:56
28K. StenlundC000010.250006313:19
27N. EhlersL000-120.25000—12:41
20K. KuhlmanC000000.06000011:24
36M. BarronC000020.24002010:55
8S. MaenalanenR000-100.00110—10:40
Winnipeg Jets goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
37C. Hellebuyck(L)28253.8932.22-0.7859:34

Season series

Tied 1-1

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).