Maple Leafs at Blue Jackets 3-0 — Recap, Win Probability & Shot Map

NHL scoreboard

Toronto Maple Leafs

▸3

Columbus Blue Jackets

FinalTV BSOH, TVAS·Nationwide Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Toronto Maple Leafs beat the Columbus Blue Jackets 3-0. The Maple Leafs scored first and never trailed. The Maple Leafs led 1-0 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Pierre Engvall's goal at 7:49 of the third period, which took the Maple Leafs' chances from 77% to 94%. Expected goals favored the Maple Leafs, 4.1 to 1.9; shots on goal were TOR 41, CBJ 30. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 81% of the time. Ilya Samsonov stopped 30 of 30 (1.000), 1.9 goals saved above expected; Joonas Korpisalo stopped 38 of 41 (.927), 1.1 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. John Tavares (2 G), 2. Ilya Samsonov (30 saves, 1.000), 3. Joonas Korpisalo (38 saves, .927).

Three stars

★
J. Tavares2 G
★★
I. Samsonov30 saves, 1.000
★★★
J. Korpisalo38 saves, .927

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath

Goals and shots on goal by period
Team	1st	2nd	3rd	T
TOR	114	014	213	341
CBJ	06	015	09	030

Scoring

3 goals

1st period

J. Tavares(22)PPG
M. Marner (42), M. Bunting (21)
backhandxG 0.15win prob +9 pts
1-0
5:45

3rd period

P. Engvall(11)
M. Rielly (23), D. Kampf (13)
wristxG 0.12win prob +17 pts
2-0
7:49
J. Tavares(23)
M. Marner (43)
wristxG 0.11win prob +5 pts
3-0
8:38

Penalties

6 PIM·

18 PIM

1st

2:34Zachary Aston-Reese · Trippingdrawn by Andrew Peeke2 min
5:03Mathieu Olivier · Interferencedrawn by TJ Brodie2 min
18:37Cole Sillinger · Slashingdrawn by Rasmus Sandin2 min

2nd

7:22Vladislav Gavrikov · Interferencedrawn by John Tavares2 min
12:08Timothy Liljegren · High sticking double minordrawn by Liam Foudy4 min

3rd

14:38Boone Jenner · Slashingdrawn by Alex Steeves2 min
14:38Boone Jenner · Misconduct10 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game

Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number

goal

goalFinal: CBJ

Biggest swing: Pierre Engvall, 3rd 7:49 — TOR 77% → 94%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG

0 G · 1.9 xG · 42 att

←

attacks

attacks →

3 G · 4.1 xG · 52 att CBJ

0 G · 1.9 xG · 42 att

Tap a shot for who, when and how likely

GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

4.13 G
All situations: 0 G1.9; 2.52 G
Even strength: 0 G1.6; 1.41 G
Power play: 0 G0.3; 0.20 G
Shorthanded: 0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 94 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created

81%19%

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.93 – 1.91

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

41
Shots on goal: 30; 41%
Faceoffs: 59%; 1/4
Power play: 0/3; 6
Penalty minutes: 18; 6
Hits: 16; 14
Blocked shots: 18; 3
Giveaways: 4; 8
Takeaways: 6

Box score

every player line

Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
Skater	G	A	P	+/-	SOG	ixG	Hit	Blk	PIM	FO%	TOI
78T. BrodieD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.02	0	3	0	—	22:22
44M. RiellyD	0	1	1	+1	3	0.26	0	2	0	—	22:00
3J. HollD	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	1	0	—	20:27
88W. NylanderR	0	0	0	0	7	1.53	0	0	0	—	18:49
16M. MarnerR	0	2	2	+1	3	0.20	0	0	0	—	18:15
38R. SandinD	0	0	0	+1	2	0.03	2	2	0	—	17:30
91J. TavaresC	2	0	2	+1	4	0.36	0	0	0	35	17:21
37T. LiljegrenD	0	0	0	+1	4	0.26	1	2	4	—	17:15
15A. KerfootC	0	0	0	0	1	0.06	0	0	0	56	16:57
47P. EngvallL	1	0	1	+1	6	0.32	0	0	0	—	16:55
58M. BuntingL	0	1	1	+1	2	0.32	0	0	0	—	16:53
55M. GiordanoD	0	0	0	0	1	0.04	0	2	0	—	16:43
19C. JarnkrokC	0	0	0	0	0	0.23	0	0	0	0	15:35
64D. KampfC	0	1	1	+1	2	0.06	0	0	0	67	14:54
29P. HolmbergR	0	0	0	0	0	0.00	0	0	0	25	10:51
12Z. Aston-ReeseL	0	0	0	0	1	0.09	0	0	2	—	10:36
28J. AndersonR	0	0	0	+1	1	0.04	1	2	0	—	10:31
46A. SteevesC	0	0	0	0	2	0.27	2	0	0	0	10:06

Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
Goalie	SA	SV	GA	SV%	xGA	GSAx	TOI
35I. Samsonov(W)	30	30	0	1.000	1.94	+1.94	60:00

Season series

TOR leads 2-1

Feb 103@0this game
Feb 114@3Final
Apr 42@4Final

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).

Toronto Maple Leafs at Columbus Blue Jackets

1st period

3rd period

1st

2nd

3rd

Box score