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Maple Leafs at Coyotes
NHL

Toronto Maple Leafs at Utah Mammoth

NHL scoreboard
Toronto Maple Leafs
3
Utah Mammoth
▸6
FinalTV BSAZ, SNO·Mullett Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Utah Mammoth beat the Toronto Maple Leafs 6-3. The lead changed hands 3 times. The Maple Leafs led 3-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Jack McBain's goal at 13:43 of the third period, which took the Coyotes' chances from 52% to 88%. Expected goals were close — TOR 3.3, ARI 3.2; shots on goal were TOR 32, ARI 23. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Maple Leafs win a replay of these chances 66% of the time. Matt Murray stopped 17 of 21 (.810), 1.6 goals below expected; Karel Vejmelka stopped 29 of 32 (.906). Three stars: 1. Jack McBain (2 G), 2. J.J. Moser (1 G), 3. Nick Bjugstad (1 G, 1 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    ARI
    J. McBain2 G
  2. ★★
    ARI
    J. Moser1 G
  3. ★★★
    ARI
    N. Bjugstad1 G, 1 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
TORTOR21319010332
ARIARI1219412623

Scoring

9 goals

1st period

  1. ARI
    N. Bjugstad(8)
    Unassisted
    backhandxG 0.14win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    0:46
  2. TOR
    P. Holmberg(3)PPG
    C. Timmins (7), P. Engvall (7)
    tip-inxG 0.12win prob +12 pts
    1-1
    9:02
  3. TOR
    C. Jarnkrok(8)PPG
    C. Timmins (8), M. Rielly (17)
    wristxG 0.09win prob +13 pts
    2-1
    12:33

2nd period

  1. ARI
    J. Chychrun(4)PPG
    N. Ritchie (8), S. Gostisbehere (17)
    wristxG 0.45win prob +18 pts
    2-2
    6:52
  2. TOR
    A. Kerfoot(6)
    M. Giordano (11), J. Holl (4)
    wristxG 0.25win prob +19 pts
    3-2
    11:19

3rd period

  1. ARI
    J. Moser(5)PPG
    J. Välimäki (7), B. Hayton (5)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +25 pts
    3-3
    4:40
  2. ARI
    J. McBain(5)
    L. Crouse (7), N. Bjugstad (7)
    wristxG 0.30win prob +36 pts
    3-4
    13:43
  3. ARI
    J. McBain(6)EN
    B. Hayton (6)
    wristxG 0.39win prob +6 pts
    3-5
    17:38
  4. ARI
    B. Hayton(2)EN
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.47
    3-6
    19:11

Penalties

TOR 13 PIM·ARI 11 PIM

1st

  • 7:21ARIShayne Gostisbehere · Interferencedrawn by Auston Matthews2 min
  • 10:34ARIJuuso Välimäki · Holdingdrawn by Dryden Hunt2 min
  • 14:34TORJohn Tavares · Trippingdrawn by Michael Carcone2 min

2nd

  • 2:41ARIJack McBain · Fightingdrawn by Dryden Hunt5 min
  • 2:41TORDryden Hunt · Fightingdrawn by Jack McBain5 min
  • 6:46TORMitch Marner · Trippingdrawn by Shayne Gostisbehere2 min
  • 9:07ARIBarrett Hayton · Holdingdrawn by Michael Bunting2 min
  • 9:07TORMichael Bunting · Roughingdrawn by Barrett Hayton2 min

3rd

  • 2:41TORConor Timmins · High stickingdrawn by Christian Fischer2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
ARI goalTOR goalFinal: ARI 100%

Biggest swing: Jack McBain, 3rd 13:43 — ARI 52% → 88%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
B. Hayton · Goal · xG 0.47J. Chychrun · Goal · xG 0.45J. McBain · Goal · xG 0.39J. McBain · Goal · xG 0.30N. Schmaltz · On goal · xG 0.22N. Bjugstad · Goal · xG 0.14T. Boyd · Missed · xG 0.13J. McBain · On goal · xG 0.12J. McBain · On goal · xG 0.11N. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.11T. Boyd · On goal · xG 0.10N. Ritchie · On goal · xG 0.09T. Stecher · On goal · xG 0.08M. Carcone · Missed · xG 0.07J. Moser · Goal · xG 0.07C. Keller · On goal · xG 0.06L. Crouse · Missed · xG 0.05S. Gostisbehere · On goal · xG 0.05J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.04C. Fischer · On goal · xG 0.03N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.03B. Hayton · On goal · xG 0.03J. Chychrun · On goal · xG 0.02T. Stecher · Missed · xG 0.02P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.02M. Carcone · Missed · xG 0.02P. Nemeth · On goal · xG 0.02N. Bjugstad · On goal · xG 0.01
ARI6 G · 3.2 xG · 28 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

TORvsARI
3.33 G
All situations
4 G3.2
2.01 G
Even strength
2 G1.5
1.22 G
Power play
2 G0.9
0.10 G
Shorthanded
0 G0.0

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 71 unblocked attempts. Empty-net goals are left out of the goal counts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
TOR66%34%ARI

Flurry-adjusted xG 3.27 – 2.34

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

TORvsARI
32
Shots on goal
23
45%
Faceoffs
55%
2/2
Power play
2/3
13
Penalty minutes
11
27
Hits
38
10
Blocked shots
18
11
Giveaways
11
4
Takeaways
5

Box score

every player line
Toronto Maple Leafs skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
78T. BrodieD000000.00020—20:39
34A. MatthewsC000-440.500102920:28
16M. MarnerR000-220.30302—20:18
44M. RiellyD011-340.13320—20:06
88W. NylanderR000-460.62000—20:00
37T. LiljegrenD000-130.07310—19:57
3J. HollD011010.02010—19:03
58M. BuntingL000-320.43202—18:33
55M. GiordanoD011010.01010—17:37
25C. TimminsD022010.07002—17:31
91J. TavaresC000-210.381125516:30
19C. JarnkrokC101020.14200015:14
15A. KerfootC101+130.33000013:24
64D. KampfC000+100.002104512:53
29P. HolmbergR101010.111006012:18
12Z. Aston-ReeseL000000.00300—11:40
47P. EngvallL011000.11100—10:43
20D. HuntL000010.08605—08:10
Toronto Maple Leafs goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
30M. Murray(L)21174.8102.39-1.6158:51

Season series

ARI leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).