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Predators at Lightning
NHL

Nashville Predators at Tampa Bay Lightning

NHL scoreboard
Nashville Predators
2
Tampa Bay Lightning
▸5
FinalTV BSSUNX, BSSO·Amalie Arena

Recap

written from the game data

The Tampa Bay Lightning beat the Nashville Predators 5-2. The Lightning scored first and never trailed. It was tied 2-2 after two periods. The biggest swing in win probability was Brayden Point's goal at 2:14 of the third period, which took the Lightning's chances from 52% to 77%. Expected goals were close — NSH 2.8, TBL 2.8; shots on goal were NSH 36, TBL 33. With league-average goaltending at both ends, the Predators win a replay of these chances 50% of the time. Juuse Saros stopped 28 of 33 (.848), 2.2 goals below expected; Brian Elliott stopped 34 of 36 (.944), 0.8 goals saved above expected. Three stars: 1. Brayden Point (2 G), 2. Brian Elliott (34 saves, .944), 3. Steven Stamkos (2 A).

Three stars

  1. ★
    TBL
    B. Point2 G
  2. ★★
    TBL
    B. Elliott34 saves, .944
  3. ★★★
    TBL
    S. Stamkos2 A

Line score

goals · shots on goal beneath
Goals and shots on goal by period
Team1st2nd3rdT
NSHNSH14115017236
TBLTBL21108314533

Scoring

7 goals

1st period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(12)
    I. Cole (7), E. Cernak (4)
    wristxG 0.22win prob +11 pts
    0-1
    1:16
  2. TBL
    C. Perry(4)PPG
    S. Stamkos (17), V. Hedman (11)
    wristxG 0.37win prob +10 pts
    0-2
    2:53
  3. NSH
    M. Jankowski(3)SHG
    Unassisted
    wristxG 0.19win prob +15 pts
    1-2
    10:51

2nd period

  1. NSH
    A. Carrier(1)
    F. Forsberg (15), N. Niederreiter (3)
    wristxG 0.20win prob +15 pts
    2-2
    12:36

3rd period

  1. TBL
    B. Point(13)
    A. Cirelli (3), N. Kucherov (27)
    wristxG 0.11win prob +25 pts
    2-3
    2:14
  2. TBL
    N. Paul(12)
    S. Stamkos (18)
    wristxG 0.07win prob +14 pts
    2-4
    7:10
  3. TBL
    B. Hagel(8)SHG
    M. Sergachev (20), B. Elliott (1)
    wristxG 0.17win prob +2 pts
    2-5
    15:40

Penalties

NSH 9 PIM·TBL 9 PIM

1st

  • 2:26NSHserved by N. Niederreiter · Too many men on the ice2 min
  • 9:25NSHJeremy Lauzon · Trippingdrawn by Brandon Hagel2 min
  • 12:39TBLPatrick Maroon · High stickingdrawn by Jeremy Lauzon2 min

2nd

  • 9:10TBLCal Foote · Fightingdrawn by Cole Smith5 min
  • 9:10NSHCole Smith · Fightingdrawn by Cal Foote5 min

3rd

  • 14:08TBLVictor Hedman · Trippingdrawn by Matt Duchene2 min

Win probability

ours · the whole game
Tap or hover the chart for the moment-by-moment number
TBL goalNSH goalFinal: TBL 100%

Biggest swing: Brayden Point, 3rd 2:14 — TBL 52% → 77%

Shot map

unblocked attempts · size = our xG
C. Perry · Goal · xG 0.37B. Point · Goal · xG 0.22B. Point · On goal · xG 0.22B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.21V. Namestnikov · On goal · xG 0.18B. Hagel · Goal · xG 0.17R. Colton · On goal · xG 0.14B. Point · Goal · xG 0.11B. Hagel · On goal · xG 0.11P. Maroon · On goal · xG 0.11S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.09N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.09S. Stamkos · On goal · xG 0.08A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.08N. Paul · Goal · xG 0.07N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.07A. Cirelli · On goal · xG 0.06N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.05I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.04V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.04M. Sergachev · On goal · xG 0.03N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.03E. Cernak · On goal · xG 0.03B. Hagel · Missed · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02N. Kucherov · On goal · xG 0.02P. Maroon · Missed · xG 0.02I. Cole · Missed · xG 0.02N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.01C. Foote · On goal · xG 0.01N. Perbix · Missed · xG 0.01N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.01A. Cirelli · Missed · xG 0.01N. Paul · On goal · xG 0.00I. Cole · On goal · xG 0.00V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.00C. Foote · On goal · xG 0.00N. Perbix · On goal · xG 0.00V. Hedman · On goal · xG 0.00
TBL5 G · 2.8 xG · 39 att
Tap a shot for who, when and how likely
GoalOn goalMissedBigger = higher xG

Expected goals

NSHvsTBL
2.82 G
All situations
5 G2.8
1.91 G
Even strength
3 G2.2
0.70 G
Power play
1 G0.5
0.21 G
Shorthanded
1 G0.2

Expected goals: the chance each unblocked attempt scores, from our shot model, summed. 81 unblocked attempts.

Deserve to win

on the chances created
NSH50%50%TBL

Flurry-adjusted xG 2.76 – 2.75

How often each side wins a replay of these chances with league-average goaltending at both ends. Rebounds in a flurry are counted once, so a scramble is not three chances.

Team stats

NSHvsTBL
36
Shots on goal
33
55%
Faceoffs
45%
0/2
Power play
1/2
9
Penalty minutes
9
45
Hits
35
16
Blocked shots
16
3
Giveaways
16
12
Takeaways
8

Box score

every player line
Nashville Predators skaters
SkaterGAP+/-SOGixGHitBlkPIMFO%TOI
59R. JosiD000-260.15130—28:01
95M. DucheneC000-340.44120023:07
46J. GrossD000-310.17360—22:34
64M. GranlundC000-310.21410022:20
14M. EkholmD000+120.07310—18:39
9F. ForsbergL011+120.26000—17:51
22N. NiederreiterR011050.28400—16:52
57D. FabbroD000030.06100—16:44
75J. ParssinenC000-310.004002016:17
45A. CarrierD101+120.23110—16:08
10C. SissonsC000-100.004006415:38
92R. JohansenC000+100.000007115:10
3J. LauzonD000-110.26502—14:19
84T. JeannotL000020.227003313:36
17M. JankowskiL101010.192005413:33
13Y. TreninC000+130.12310012:55
36C. SmithR000010.04215—09:08
47M. McCarronC000010.100006706:55
Nashville Predators goalies
GoalieSASVGASV%xGAGSAxTOI
74J. Saros(L)33285.8482.78-2.2257:46

Season series

TBL leads 2-0

Data: NHL. Model: Gridpex (expected goals and win probability built on NHL play-by-play).